The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), Taiwan’s top agency for dealing with China, issued a statement in response to a Hong Kong media report indicating that China might launch a pilot program in which it will issue passports for citizens of what it describes as its “Taiwan Special Administrative Region (SAR),” as part of Beijing’s efforts to “solve the Taiwan problem.”
There are only 2 countries that do not recognize ROC passports, and only 1 that will not allow Taiwanese in for any reason, no way no how.
China does not recognize the ROC passport, of course. But, citizens can get in with a special card.
The Republic of Georgia will not allow ROC passport holders to transit through, or otherwise enter the country. My wife and I were there in 2014 and were held up at the border. At that time, it was understood a “visa on arrival” could be obtained. After an hour, she was allowed to enter but they did not stamp her passport.
Rumor has it that something like this has been in the works for a while. I guess China has been, or could be pressuring nations to remove the “visa free” travel privilege from ROC passport holders.
But…and I hate saying this…Taiwan, or ROC has no choice but to play China’s game. Money talks in this world, and China has more of it to throw around. However, if/when Taiwan crumbles into the fold, China loses a bargaining chip with the US. If that matters anymore.
The best anyone can hope for is that Tsai begins a dialog with Xi to reach a formal understanding that Taiwan does not want to be a part of China and at the same time, it will never be viewed as independent. And both need to find language that will be agreeable to all sides. Maybe Taiwan can keep its own immigration policy, a separate passport, its own defense, its own courts, its own elections.
I strongly believe the people of Taiwan will get a better deal under the DPP, than under the KMT. The KMT wants full integration within the mainland. Albeit with the KMT in full control over it all. If the right price is paid, then the KMT may just accept whatever bone China throws at them, at the risk of losing the Taiwanese identity…again.
Sorry. The time for Republic of Taiwan has long since passed. I really hope I am wrong on that.
Sounds like an effective endgame. I could see the EU jumping on board with this. They are so broke trying to fund their welfare state they need every dollar they can get. Plus, no backbone. Look how they are dealing with the Muhammadens as well as the migrant crisis.
Man… I long for Hu Jintao to still be in charge. I was so much more positive about China then.
Xi has gone full Putin and is slaying everyone who could possibly oppose him. He is going to maneuver his way into a second term. Since Deng , China hasn’t had an ideological leader, just quiet technocrats. Until now. China is rolling back to 1995.
To the guy saying That should have a dialogue with Xi about Taiwan Independence. Tee hee hee, you haven’t been following China over the last three years
Under Article 9-1 of the Act Governing Relations Between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area (兩岸人民關係條例), Taiwanese are not permitted to use passports issued by the PRC. Violators face losing their ROC citizenship and all associated rights.
Article 33 of the act prohibits Taiwanese from engaging in Chinese political or military affairs, or from becoming a member of any Chinese party or government-affiliated group.
I did not say negotiate Taiwanese independence. That will not happen. The best they could hope for is to work out some agreement, such that was offered in the past, where Taiwan could retain a “together, yet separate” identity.
Xi is solidifying party power. He is the last, or one of the last, of the old guard. A new generation, the “Tiananmen generation” will be in power, soon. Things may change at that point.
Read again. I basically agree. Thatd the best Taiwan can expect. A Commonwealth on Chinese states where Taiwan has its own government, military, immigration etc.
I 100% disagree about stuff improving though. Xi is presently maneuvering himself into another ten year term after 2022 and filling high government positions with his supporters. It’s scary stuff
Jiang Zemin hinted to something like that, going as far as changing the name of the country and flag, etc.
What would they call it? The Commonwealth of China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau? I wonder what the money would look like. Maybe have Sun, Chiang, Mao, and some artists and poets on it. The flag? I do not think the KMT symbol would be welcome on any new national flag. Would TW be able to participate in the olympics AS TW? Sounds good…
But wouldn’t that require all sides have a say in the national government. I am not so sure the Party would go for that. As it appears, the best Taiwan can hope for is SAR status, with maybe MAYBE a little more “freedom” than HK/M has.
And precisely because of the way laws are made in Taiwan i.e., by democratic principles, it is also easier for Taiwan to actually enter into a political union with Japan. For example, it is easier for Finland or Ukraine to share sovereignty with EU than to form a common wealth (however you define it) with Russia.
China’s nationalism inevitably results in a confrontational relationship with Japan and the West, but Taiwanese people are naturally pro-Japanese and pro-West. That’s why Chinese nationalism is provocative to the Taiwanese. And the Taiwanese being provoked of course would not make Taiwanese laws compatible to any political union with China.
There really is no choice in the matter. The deck is stacked in Beijing’s favor. The geoeconomic/political climate is leaning towards China, now. At least away from the US. The EU may still have some pull, since they are the largest economy (at this moment, depending on who you believe, but I am going with it)
China will work to isolate Taiwan as much as possible. Leaning on weaker nations to not accept the ROC passport. Failing that, they could ban airlines going to Taiwan from entering their airspace.
Taiwan cannot look towards the US for help. Despite all his huff and puff, there really is little Trump can do. He carries no weight with the EU, the only other western power that could deal with China. Economically, he knows it is in his best personal interests to leave China alone.
I think the world is already in a bipolar world where on the one side you have anti-democratic states on one side and democratic states on the other. The divergence has become very obvious.
Taiwan has no choice but being pulled to the side opposite to China. If you just do a basic calculation, the gravitational pull of the combined power of US and Japan and India far exceed China. And China is declining.
What this means is that it is getting harder and harder to coerce Taiwanese to make laws that are compatible with having a political relationship with China.
Talk of a Chinese decline has been going on for over a decade. Their economy will implode, their politics will implode, etc. Nothing happening. While it has slowed, due to the economic make-up, I would not expect a “great recession” from the PRC anytime soon.
China and India are in economic alliance, with Russia, Brazil, and South Africa (Why?) China and Russia could move closer together, politically in the coming years.
China has succeeded, where the Soviets failed…having more influence in the third world than the US.
If, IF Abe stays in power in Japan, then MAYBE Taiwan has a fighting chance at resisting China. But, if Abe goes, a liberal leaning Japan could turn more complacent and open to Chinese direction. (The new leaders in Seoul want to open up dialog with the north. History has proven that this does not work)
And the growing consensus in the KMT is continued rapprochement with China, including signing a peace treaty which would most likely completely undermine any sovereignty Taiwan and the Taiwanese (and the expats living with them) enjoy. Laws and constitutions are fine, but in this game…money is king.
leaning on weaker nations ← That’s just like stronger nations such as Japan and US leaning on Taiwan (a weaker nation) to not accept Chinese rule. Japan and US consider Taiwan their traditional sphere of influence, and no wonder why China hits a wall when China wants to expand into Taiwan.
One good indicator of whether China is rising or declining is how Taiwanese vote. When China was rising, Blue+Red (pro-China) parties in Taiwan were gaining votes, because it was easy for them convince the voters that China was rising. But as China started declining, pro-China parties began to loose votes.
Another indicator is whether there is a huge demand to take money out of China.
I hate it, but Taiwan is little more than a pawn between the powers. A bargaining chip. Something used to get concessions out of the others.
The Taiwanese are resilient in their resistance to China. The harder China grasps, the further away the Taiwanese go. But eventually, China will simply clip Taiwan’s wings. If it won’t return to the roost, then it can’t go anywhere else.
Again, its back to money. If China offered Japan a US$100 billion dollar trade deal to sever all relations with Taipei and play completely by China’s rules…I am guessing its curtains the Japanese/Taiwanese relationship on all levels.
But maybe all is not what it seems. Maybe Xi is simply placating the military. It was offered that Deng ordered the crackdown on Tiananmen protesters, not to as a show of might, but to stave off a military coup. It is more or less an open secret the PLA generals want to take Taiwan and have no problem dealing with any US interference in accomplishing that goal.
Whatever, its a waiting game now. I truly hope Taiwan can keep its de acto independence and keep China at arms length. But time could be running out.
There is? I do not mean to be contradictory, but every bank I go into in Taiwan has ads all over to “Buy RMB” or otherwise invest in China. TSMC is opening a factory in China because Morris is tired of all the regulatory BS in Taiwan. (off topic, it appears FoxConn is opening a plant in the US, for what that is worth)
I am likening this to the embargo that the US has against Cuba. It has failed because, not so much just the resilience of the Cuban people, but that the US failed to get all other nations to go along with it. Canada, the EU among others (including Taiwanese) can freely go to Cuba at will. But…China can succeed where the US failed. Replace Cuba with Taiwan and the US with China.
$100 billion USD trade deal, but what is the profit margin? 5%? 10%? Even if China gives Japan $100 billion free money, it’s not really a lot to Japan. If Japan wants cash they can just print it themselves. Anyway it’s not about money.
Japan sent China 3.3 Trillion yen of aid money and technical help for 3 decades, and still failed to make China not anti-Japan and not anti-democratic. So paying out the Japanese almost certainly won’t work on Japan.
To put things in perspective, US gives China over 300 billion of trade deals EVERY YEAR (not just a one-time deal like the one you offered hypothetically), but still China encroaches on US traditional sphere of influence in Asia. If “money talks” is universally true, then China would have already followed what US and Japan wanted China to become, which was to pursue democracy and renounce aggression. Apparently money doesn’t work on those states that already have their hidden agenda to begin with. Money might work on likeminded states, neutral states, micro-states, I think.