Climate Change - Impacts, Part II

[quote=“finley”]Two questions for fred smith, and possibly for TGM. This is essentially what climate-change mitigation boils down to, on a larger scale:

  1. You need a new fridge. One costs NT$5000 and NT$7/day to run, over a projected three-year lifetime. The other costs $8000 and NT$4/day to run, over a four-year lifetime. Which would you buy?
  2. Your apartment is leaking water. Three different builders tell you there’s a major design flaw in the roof that needs fixing now or the water ingress will cause major structural damage. Would you (a) try to convince the other 100 tenants in the building to share the NT$1m cost of fixing the roof, or (b) put a bucket under the leak and hope for the best?

I reckon you’ll just fudge and prevaricate because, as BWO suggests, you can’t admit climate change might be real because your entire worldview would stop making sense. Or you’ll pretend those scenarios are nothing like the climate change issue.[/quote]

Not much philosophy there. But what else would one expect from those that claim that one of the original science, is not. If flies in the face of disbelief that said practice can’t get no recognise, but perhaps I expect too much from certain schools of thought.

In any event, the questions you ask are hardly pivotal. But I’ll bite:

  1. I’d buy the more expensive, as that is my taste. Power consumption would be secondary over performance.
  2. I would move out.

:neutral:

Sorry if it ain’t up to the desired level of action.

I have no idea what you said there. Speak English, man! :grandpa:

Anyway, I’m not talking about philosophy: this is practicalities.

Which one is that? The second is more expensive up-front but has a lower lifetime cost. The first one is more expensive over its lifetime. I was assuming identical size and cooling capacity.

If you mean the NT$8000 one, your choice is all the ‘alarmists’ are asking for. The fridge is broken. Let’s not buy a shitty one made in China to replace it. Let’s buy one that will last a while, and won’t cost a fortune to run. That’s not even Economics 101. It’s just good money sense.

The reality is that today’s technology allows us to make a fridge that lasts 30 years and has one-fifth of the lifetime cost of the ‘traditional’ option (I’m not actually talking about fridges here - just modern conveniences in general). It just so happens that it does that by reducing environmental waste, yet it seems a certain type of person will discount such technology purely on that basis:

  • “We don’t want none of that enviro-green-treehugger bullshit!”
  • Yeah, but it’s cheaper and better. Are you sure?
  • “Don’t care! Anti-business commie bullshit! Murica!”
  • :idunno:

Not unreasonable. This is exactly what a lot of people are doing, metaphorically speaking. I think Vay mentioned that he’s one of them taking that line.

Not an option for the entire human race though, is it?

Would you still move out if you were in a negative-equity scenario?

To clarify:

  1. I meant cheaper at the point of sale.
  2. The Human Race?
    Why should we care an instant about that evil cult?
    I thought this was about the planet, but if it is about humans, well, that makes my heart even harder.
    :imp:

Finley was quite correct when he said that philosophy is not science but rather that science is a branch of philosophy (or something to that effect).

You still have not explained how you think that Fred Smith’s approach to this issue is in any way supported by actual philosophy… excepting the Post Modernist, Paul Feyerabend, “science is another faith-based religion” variety.

[quote]Why should we care an instant about that evil cult?
I thought this was about the planet, but if it is about humans, well, that makes my heart even harder.[/quote]

Like I said, the planet will be fine. The last time there was runaway warming caused by the GHE, it took I think around 20,000 years for the natural balance to re-assert itself as far as the climate. A lot changed, of course… something like 90% of terrestrial and marine life went extinct , and the full come-back from that may have taken up to ten million years - but in the end, the planet was okey-dokey.

As for your view of the human race: hmm, yes, I can see where public policy makers could benefit from using your approach to the problem… :loco:

this thread is loosing steam. I guess Fred is finally realizing the folly of his ways

[quote=“Finley”]2. I would move out.

Not unreasonable. This is exactly what a lot of people are doing, metaphorically speaking. I think Vay mentioned that he’s one of them taking that line.[/quote]

Some climate scientists are thinking the same thing, apparently:

When the End of Civilization Is Your Day Job

i think the point is you can’t move out. there’s only 1 earth. yes, maybe you can mitigate and delay by moving to more remote places (e.g. non-coastal), but do those have resources (fresh water, etc.). and then you’d be 1 billion people vying for the same, presumably shrinking resources suitable for humans… leading to increased competition.

and what’s with TGM, does he think he’s so special with these cryptic posts?

It sounds to me like he’s been reading too much Ayn Rand.

Everyone’s entitled to their own life philosophy, I guess, but I honestly don’t want my public officials to have (a) TGM’s approach to household finances and (b) TGMs attitude to the Meaning of Life. You can’t prove, logically, that we should give a shit about anyone or anything, but most of us just accept that we should, even though frankly I find it hard to have a lot of sympathy with the seething masses cranking out more seething masses. We don’t drop litter in the street or take a dump on the supermarket floor, so why is it OK to pump pollution into the air and water that other people depend on?

Even if one is purely motivated by self-interest, I don’t see how anyone with an ounce of sense could argue that it’s a good idea to keep using obsolete technology that will, sooner rather than later, be too expensive to keep running.

As for moving out, land competition, etc; yes, we’re going to end up with 9 billion people crammed into a really small space. The people who get there first are going to be the ones charging rent. It’s pretty much unavoidable now. Despite the few fred smiths, who live in a lovely world of flowers and free milkshakes, where governments and multinational conglomerates are only looking after our best interests, most people agree that climate change is not a future hypothetical (as it arguably was 10-20 years ago). It’s happening here and now, and you either adapt, move, or die. The reality is that TPTB aren’t going to change anything, shit will get much worse before the oil eventually runs out, and you’d best make your own arrangements. Me, I’m looking at land in Ireland. It’s affordable, and 20 years from now the climate will be a bit like Taiwan.

Finley was quite correct when he said that philosophy is not science but rather that science is a branch of philosophy (or something to that effect).[/quote]
Actually, I’m afraid not.
Not sure what your excuses are. If one cannot accept the actual point of fact that amongst schools of thought, Philisophy is an Original Science, then I suppose one is doomed to a suppository type of arguement.

Nor shall I. As it would be a waste of strokes.
But, we know all this already.
You make your point, and a certain foil shall have his. In the meantime, let us all visit libraries,
I am exiting, let you lads have your say.

“as the spirit wanes, the form appears…”
-c. bukowski

Finley was quite correct when he said that philosophy is not science but rather that science is a branch of philosophy (or something to that effect).[/quote]
Actually, I’m afraid not.
Not sure what your excuses are. If one cannot accept the actual point of fact that amongst schools of thought, Philisophy is an Original Science, then I suppose one is doomed to a suppository type of arguement.[/quote]

Um, look up the definition of “science”. Then look up “philosophy”. You’ll find you’re wrong, and he’s right. I have no idea what you’re going on about as far as a “suppository type of argument”.

Nor shall I. As it would be a waste of strokes. But, we know all this already.[/quote]

Sounds like a cop-out to me. Let a certain I-won’t-say-the-word-but-we-all-know-it’s-true run amok if you like, but as far as your own point, you haven’t come close to making it stick.

Mick I’m finally gonna try to sit down and answer your last post about BC’s revenue-neutral carbon tax. Economics has never been my preferred area of discussion, but I’ll give it my best shot (as long as that doesn’t take longer than it will take my wife to walk the dogs).

That’s not the intent of the tax at all. For one thing, you seem to be missing the idea of “revenue neutral”. The tax isn’t imposed on business and then gets handed over to the poor. Here’s a pretty good explanation of how it works:

[quote=“SkS comments poster”]If a 10% tax were added to the cost of coal based electricity and then all of that tax refunded back to the consumers the net change for all consumers would be ‘zero’ (though they would lose interest on the money between the time it was paid and refunded). However, an individual who used no coal based electricity would pay 0% of the tax, but still get their full share of the refund.

Under the proposed revenue neutral tax plan, those who do not reduce their emissions would lose money because they are paying more for the tax than they are getting back from the refund… the difference effectively becoming a wealth transfer to the people who do reduce their emissions. That’s your economic incentive… the government is taking money away from people with high emissions lifestyles and giving that money to people with low emissions lifestyles. Thus, each individual has an economic incentive to reduce their emissions even though the government isn’t making any money and the total population isn’t losing any. It is the direction of transfer which creates the incentive.[/quote]

The following are your three main points:

In fact I think the “Thinker” article is itself rather misleading. You can see from their own chart that the gap between BC and Canada as a whole is already decreasing before 2008; moreover, after only 2-3 years, BC is already edging its way back up past the national average. To this, I would like to add that the comments under the “Thinker” article are hillarious… really worth a look.

The out-of-state question has been looked at,

The Effect of Cross-Border Shopping n BC Fuel Consumption - Estimates

…and the answer (as would seem common sense, given the hassle and extra gas consumption involved in making such a trip) is that, if this guy’s got it right (and I’ve seen other similar analysis, so I think he has), though there has been an increase in such trips, the net effect has been small, making up around 1-2% of the estimated 17% reduction in fuel consumption. I will admit, however, that it’s fair to point out that correlation doesn’t equal causation… which is why I think your third point (below) is crucial:

[quote=“Mick”]3) No B.C. carbon tax miracle on 120th St.

Except for a couple of problems. The studies backing the idea are very thin on sound economic analysis and very large in their demolition of Economics 101, especially one of the foundations of economic theory: price elasticity of demand. But an even bigger problem exists. According to the latest Statistics Canada data, B.C. gasoline consumption in 2014 is right back to where it was in 2008, even a bit higher. The alleged gas tax payoff, if it ever existed, has disappeared. More problematic still, B.C.’s gas consumption per capita has risen more since 2008 than it has in Ontario, where no carbon tax exists.[/quote]

This to me was a big blow to my sense of the tax’s success. Even if I accept his conclusion, though, all it tells me is that the tax probably needs modifying. No matter what, there is the fact of an absolutely humongous negative externality (AGW, not to mention tens of thousands of death/year - depending on the country - from particulate pollution) that needs to be added to the cost of carbon. The public’s behavior needs to be incentivized away from carbon-based energy and towards other forms. To quote Forbes’ Tim Worstall:

[quote]The outcome of knowing all of this is that moving away from fossil fuels gets rid of the problem. No, we don’t have to stop economic growth; no, we don’t have to give in to the Forward to the Middle Ages fantasists at Greenpeace; and no, it’s not a fundamental reconstruction of capitalism, or globalisation, that’s required (indeed, those IPCC models show that globalisation itself reduces climate change and capitalism is entirely consistent with beating it).

It really is just that move away from fossil fuels to some other (less polluting) form of energy production that is all that is necessary. Furthermore, the best (and most efficient) way of encouraging this is a carbon tax, as we lose less of everything else by doing it this way.[/quote]

Want to see the back of fossil fuels? Calm down, hippies. CAPITALISM has an answer

In any case, maybe I’m just doing a shitty job of Googling, but I can’t confirm the Business Insider’s chart. Here’s what I’m able to find:

Sales of fuel used for road motor vehicles, by province and territory

It’s pretty clear from this chart that, looking at monetary figures, BC sales of gas are still down below 2008 levels as of 2013… which is not what the BI chart shows. I do note though that diesel oil sales have been up and down and are currently up again - not sure what’s up with that. In any case, it’s probably also important to point out that gas isn’t the only metric in the study described in the SkS article: the tax is on petroleum products, not just gasoline.

While I agree that, by itself, it’s inadequate, I feel it is nevertheless necessary, as I’ve explained above. Further, there are reasons to think it can be beneficial. First is the IPCC report I linked to earlier. Any economic gains we make early on by not limiting emissions get utterly devoured later on. This conclusion is similar to that of the World Bank, PriceWaterhouseCooper and so on. Are we supposed to base our hopes on some unforeseen technological breakthrough that may or may not materialize? This just isn’t responsible planning… particularly since most technological progress happens very incrementally… and as I’ve pointed out to BK, government intervention in a market failure situation can sometimes be a great stimulus for innovation. Think CFC’s (or toxic smart-phone parts).

Also, here’s a report modeling the effect of such a tax in the U.S.-

[quote=“SkS”]A new study from Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) models this type of policy. REMI has been developing regional forecasting and policy analysis models since 1980. In their study REMI modeled the regional and national economic impacts of a revenue-neutral carbon tax starting at a modest $10 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in 2016, growing steadily by $10 per year each year. They broke the US into nine distinct geographic regions.
A key finding in the study is that personal disposable income would increase under a revenue-neutral carbon tax in every region except for a slight decrease in the fossil fuel-heavy west south central states of Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. This is in large part due to the fact that for most people, their monthly refunds would be larger than the increase in their energy costs.[/quote]

REMI Carbon Tax Report

Yes, you do seem to like to rely upon the IPCC. I wonder really because so many of those making decisions are political not climate science experts. Much of the summary and other reporting is done with a very heavy (dominant) influence of these political actors. Essentially, you are asking all of us to sign onto an organization (UN agencies) whose approach to human rights is to name Libya, Syria, and others of that caliber to the leadership. I think that you need to open your eyes and realize that much of the politicking that is going on with regard to the IPCC and other UN “climate” (get it? get it?) bodies is about shaking down cash for failed states. IF the IPCC and other UN agencies were the answer, then Africa would be a great success story and China/India would be the ones struggling to feed their populations and provide adequate education and medical care. The fact that they are not despite the vast reams of policy papers and funding should give you pause for thought. I am sure that you will “feel” differently.

As to Jack Burton, still with the hyperventilating? Perhaps an herbal tea? candles? soft music? a bubble bath? I note that we don’t hear much about the plight of the poor polar bears from you. Why not?

Well, my reliance should come as no surprise, since they’ve basically set the bar as far as scientific reviews of evidence.

As far as the “influence of political actors”, usually this influence is to tone down the rather depressing findings of the scientists. I can offer up evidence if you will actually look at it. In turn, I’d love to see your evidence against the report in question, that being AR5 WG3. Hopefully something better than a WSG editorial.

PS - I will add that the conclusions of reports like the World Bank, PriceWaterhouseCooper, and the Stern Review are all pretty similar - lending credence to the IPCC’s findings.

Given the extreme heat in Taiwan lately, this sounds like a terrible plan!

Guy

And the scary thing is that I truly believe that you believe that.

And the scary thing is that I truly believe that you believe that.[/quote]

I ask for evidence; you give me incredulity.

Be honest- have you ever even had a glance at the text without the filter of some political spin-rag?

fred’s getting a little hot under the collar here

Here is an article that talks about a mini ice age coming in 15 years, as a result of “highly accurate” studies on solar cycles.

[quote]Might want to start stockpiling those down jackets: The sun could nod off by 2030, triggering what scientists are describing as a “mini ice age.”

Professor Vlentina Zharkova of Northumbira University presented the frigid findings at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales. Modern technology has made us able to predict solar cycles with much greater accuracy, and Zharkova’s model predicts that solar activity will drop by more than half between 2030 and 2040.

Solar activity was thought to be caused by a turbine-system of moving fluid within the sun. In search of a more accurate system of prediction, Professor Zharkova and her team discovered fluctuating magnetic waves in two layers of the sun. By studying the data of the dual waves, she says, predictions are far more precise.

“Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 percent,” said Zharkova, whose findings were published by the Royal Astronomic Society.

Using this method, she and her team discovered that there will be far less solar activity in sun cycles 25 and 26, leading to a prolonged period of solar dormancy

“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’,” said Zharkova.

The Maunder Minimum is the title given to periods of time when sunspots are rare. It last occurred between 1645 and 1715, when roughly 50 sunspots were recorded, as opposed to the standard 40,000. That time was marked by brutal, river-freezing temperatures in Europe and North America.[/quote]

Could it be that “science” can predict such things? Does this mean we should accelerate carbon output now so the baby seals won’t freeze to death in 2030? Maybe by then we’ll sign treaties to force increases in greenhouse gases so the planet won’t die

Will direct quotes from the former IPCC head prove sufficient? Again, we have the glaciers that no one mentions anymore. Wonder why not? And if the IPCC report had been “peer-reviewed,” would we have seen such a glaring error taken from one source that, again, involved no one with an advanced degree in climate science? Finally, for all the gnashing of teeth regarding Big Oil, think of the money that would be gushing through the system if Big Carbon became king. Again, these are DIRECT quotes from the former head of the IPCC.

[quote]At a press conference in Yokohama, Japan, March 25, Pachauri released the U.N. panel’s fifth climate assessment, which concludes a continued rise in carbon dioxide levels in the earth’s atmosphere threatens the fundamental systems that support human civilization, to the extent “no one will be untouched.”

But in a Guardian interview, he admitted the purpose of the report is to prompt political action.

“There will be enough information provided so that rational people across the globe will see that action is needed on climate change,” he said.

He further confessed, Morano noted, that the IPCC science reports are tailored to meet the political needs of governments.

“We are an intergovernmental body and we do what the governments of the world want us to do,” Pachauri told the London paper. “If the governments decide we should do things differently and come up with a vastly different set of products we would be at their beck and call.”

In 2010, Pachauri faced demands to resign as chairman of the IPCC after the panel “expressed regret” in having to admit its warning that the Himalayan glaciers were “very likely” to melt by 2035 had no basis in fact.

Pachauri dismissed calls for his resignation, but the damage was still done.

“I know a lot of climate skeptics are after my blood, but I’m in no mood to oblige them,” the beleaguered Pachauri told the Times of London. “It was a collective failure by a number of people. I need to consider what action to take, but that will take several weeks. It’s best to think with a cool head, rather than shoot from the hip.”

Graham Cogley, the Canadian scientist who exposed the IPCC glacier error, warned that Pachauri now was the one on thin ice.

“People who want to undermine the science on climate change will be crawling over the report looking for another mistake like this, and if they do find another one it will be curtains for Pachauri,” said Fred Pearce, a British environmental journalist who has reported extensively on Gogley’s refutation of the Himalayan glacier prediction.

“The way [Pachauri] has handled this glacier issue means he’s now a sitting duck if anything else turns up,” Pearce said.

In 2007, when Pachauri shared the Nobel Peace prize with Al Gore for leading the global warming charge, it would have been hard to predict his fast fall.

By 2010, media worldwide began describing Pachauri with the tag of “controversial former railroad engineer” and “lobbyist,” rather than as “the world’s leading climate scientist.”

Pachauri turns carbon into green

WND reported in 2009 a Mumbai-based Indian multinational conglomerate with business ties to Pachauri stood to make several hundred million dollars in European Union carbon credits simply by closing a steel production facility in Britain with the loss of 1,700 jobs.

The Tata Group headquartered in Mumbai had been calculated to receive windfall profits of up to £1.2 billion from closing the Corus Redcar steelmaking plant in Britain. About half of the savings was expected to result from cashing in on carbon credits granted the steelmaker by the European Union under the EU’s emissions trading scheme, or ETS.

In 1974, the TATA Group provided the financial resources to found the Tata Energy Research Institute, or TERI, a policy organization headquartered in New Delhi, India, for which Pachauri has served as chairman since its formation.

Continued business ties between TERI and TATA were demonstrated by a press announcement on the TERI website Feb. 4, 2009. Jairam Ramesh, the Indian minister of state for commerce and industry as well as minister of state for power, announced a joint venture with TERI and TATA power to extract and use carbon dioxide for the propagation of micro-algae.

WND reported in 2009 that at the time, the head of the Asian Development Bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, was warning governments that failure to reach a deal at the upcoming U.N. Climate Summit in Copenhagen could lead to a collapse of the carbon market. He said rich countries, therefore, should commit up to $100 billion to finance a climate deal that would benefit the developing world.

Pachauri at that time chaired the Asian Development Bank Advisory Group on Climate Change.

Christopher Booker, author of “The Real Global Warming Disaster,” estimated that carbon permits traded in global exchanges such as the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System, then estimated worth an estimated $126 billion, stood be valued in the trillions, “making carbon the most valuable traded commodity in the world,” outpacing even oil.

“Forget Big Oil: the new world power is Big Carbon,” Booker wrote. “Truly it has been a miracle of our time that they have managed to transform carbon dioxide, a gas upon which all life on earth depends, into a ‘pollutant,’ worth more than diamonds, let alone oil.”

Had the U.N. meeting succeeded to impose a new cap-and-trade scheme on the world economy, Pachauri and others working within the environmental industries emerging out of global-warming activism were positioned to make millions personally.

On Dec. 10, 2007, Pachauri shared with Al Gore the Nobel Peace Prize for his work on global warming. In his lecture at the Nobel Peace Prize ceremonies, Pachauri openly represented the U.N.’s IPCC.[/quote]

Read more at wnd.com/2014/04/u-n-climate- … UBQASYF.99

This reminds me of headlines from the Daily Mail in 2012:

And Now It’s Global Cooling!, trumpeted by people like Jotham in these threads. Is there no journalistic integrity at all in the conservative media? Sigh.

Media Reports The World Will Enter A ‘Mini Ice Age’ In The 2030s. The Reverse Is True.

[quote]The Earth is headed toward an imminent speed-up in global warming, as many recent studies have made clear, like this June study by NOAA. Indeed, a March study, entitled “Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change,” makes clear that a stunning acceleration in the rate of global warming is around the corner — with Arctic warming rising 1°F per decade by the 2020s!

Also, right now, we appear to be in the midst of a long-awaited jump in global temperatures. Not only was 2014 the hottest year on record, but 2015 is in the process of blowing that record away. On top of that, models say a massive El Niño is growing, as USA Today reported last week. Since El Niños tend to set the record for the hottest years (since the regional warming adds to the underlying global warming trend), if 2015/2016 does see a super El Niño then next year may well crush the record this year sets.

Whatever near-term jump we see in the global temperatures is thus likely to be followed by an accelerating global warming trend — one that would utterly overwhelm any natural variations such as a temporary reduction in solar intensity. A recent study concluded that “any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming.”

That’s true even for one as big as the Maunder Minimum, which was linked to the so-called Little Ice Age.[/quote]

That’s regarding the consensus view of what’s going to be happening with he climate around 2030. As far as the claim about this mini ice-age:

[quote]Ah, but the word choice was confusing. We’re not going to have temperature “conditions” last seen during the Little Ice Age. If this one study does turn out to be right, we’d see solar conditions equivalent to the Maunder Minimum in the 2030s.

This won’t cause the world to enter a mini ice age — for three reasons:

The Little Ice Age turns out to have been quite little.

What cooling there was probably was driven more by volcanoes than the Maunder Minimum.

The warming effect from global greenhouse gases will overwhelm any reduction in solar forcing, even more so by the 2030s.

So how little was the Little Ice Age?

The most comprehensive reconstruction of the temperature of the past 2000 years done so far, the “PAGES 2k project,” concluded that “there were no globally synchronous multi-decadal hot or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age.”

Green dots show the 30-year average of the new PAGES 2k reconstruction. The red curve shows the global mean temperature, according HadCRUT4 data from 1850 onwards. In blue is the original hockey stick of Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1999 ) with its uncertainty range (light blue). Graph by Klaus Bitterman.

The Little Ice Age was little in duration and in geographic extent. It was an “Age” the way Pluto is a planet.[/quote]