Ayioo. That would have me sleeping in a tent under the stars, in some flat ground, like a school track field. Unfortunately, it is winter.
Yeah, some people are doing that.
Would really love to hear from some earthquake specialists - coz this is totally not normal for Taiwan - the cluster of quakes that keeps escalating. There are whole universities full of earthquake experts in Taiwan so it would be nice if they could give us some indication of what they think is happening
Or maybe coz we live in Taidong, far away, then it doesnât matter
Just checked the big earthquake history for Taidong and according to https://scontent-tpe1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/q88/s960x960/15590989_10154180120921009_3376062026976122586_o.jpg?oh=57c0cc9dbd7e7aeea163274d1af5f766&oe=58AFFFAB there seems there have been two 7+'s in the last 60 years. Both on what looks to be a fault line stretching from Green Island through to Fuli in the east rift valley.
Which seems to be roughly the same fault line that last nightâs quake occurred upon.
Worryingly, they occurred about 30 years apart - one 65 years ago and the other 38 years ago - which would make us bang-on due for the next big one.
Next to this crack in the road is a large eroded crevice in which runs a small seasonal creek. Previously, i had always assumed it was indicative of an ancient big rain event typhoon that had gouged out this path down the mountain, but now i wonder if itâs not a fault line opened up by those big earthquakes.
Good news is that we had a relatively quiet night so far tonight - just two small tremors
BREAKING: U.S. Geological Survey says magnitude-8.0 earthquake strikes off Papua New Guinea.
Holy crapload of doom.
Hereâs some basic research on previous major earthquakes in Taidong:
⢠There have been two major events in the region in recent history.
⢠The first was the 7.3M Hualien-Taidong Earthquake of 1951 (65 years ago), actually âa large earthquake sequence that (started in Hualien and) shocked eastern Taiwan from 21 October to 5 December⌠composed of twelve M6+ events. [Taiwan Weather Bureau, 1952].
⢠The second was the 7.4M Lanshu earthquake of 1978 (27 years later, on a similar fault line to the one we experienced two days ago). Studies report that:
⢠âThe increase in micro-earthquake activity prior to the main shock may be considered as a precursory phenomenon.â http://twgeoref.2002.moeacgs.gov.tw/storage/1981\19810334/eab.pdf AndâŚ
⢠âbefore the Lanshu Earthquake ⌠micro-earthquake activity not only increased âŚbut also began to cluster in the epicentral zone of the ensuing strong earthquake http://twgeoref.moeacgs.gov.tw/GipOpenWeb/imgAction?f=/1981/19810334/0031.pdf
From that there would appear to be a couple of relevant points
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7M quakes occur approx 30 years apart in this region. Itâs been 38 years since the last one.
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Earthquakes in Taidong do seem to be characterized as sequential events, including a marked increase in fore-shock activity. We have had a large increase in activity in the past few months.
I had always been told that smaller earthquakes were good because they âreleased the pressureâ, but thatâs not necessarily the case. The recent Kumamoto Earthquake is a good example. First there was a 6.2, then two days later they had a 7. In Italy, a panel of seismologists was actually sentenced to jail (later acquitted on appeal) for allegedly dismissing localsâ fears that several months of increased seismic activity may result in a major quake â which it did â killing 309 people.
Again, I am not an expert and i donât want to be alarmist. Activity has subsided in the last 48 hrs and thatâs good and we are optimistic that we have seen the worst of it. However, I do wonder why all the actual expert seismologists in Taiwan that are living off the public purse, and there are a hell of a lot of them, are not giving us some guidance (no one expects a definitive answer) on this unusual upsurge in seismic activity in Taidong.
PS: If you live in Taidong City, you will wonder what the hell i am going on about. Apparently it was nothing out of the ordinary there. Same if youâre north of Dong He - it was very localized - but it was quite the event in the Dulan area
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Ok, we did finally have an actual expert, Prof X (who wants to remain anonymous), take the time to analyze the situation, and we are very grateful for that.
The key thing we learned is that the size of the fault line is generally accepted to be proportional to the size of the earthquakes it can produce.
Luckily, ours is âonly 30-40 km longâ supposedly, which should only produce small to moderate earthquakes.
Given that we had a very decent âmoderateâ earthquake at the northern extremity of the fault line, which so happened to be right here, that should be itâs masterpiece for our neck of the woods, hopefully (two days earlier, there was a 5.1 at the southern extremity, which is a good distance out to sea and just a shudder here).
At least, we shouldnât get anything much worse than that. So the theory goes.
Of course, predicting earthquakes is not an exact science and itâs impossible to say with certainty what will happen - hence his desire to remain anonymous, i guess
I noticed there was a cluster of quakes in Hualien overnight - the biggest was 4.6 but it was well out to sea.