End of the American Empire?

Politics International Politics
1

What do you think?

  • America’s economy is in trouble
  • America will remain resilient and strong
  • America is seriously overextended

0 voters

foreignpolicy.com/story/stor … a11b054a75

The preeminence of the United States seems even more uncontestable today than it was 50, 20, or even 5 years ago. Yet the foundations of this preeminence have changed. In previous decades, it was the country’s economic might that insured political domination. Today, a globally accepted belief in U.S. military hegemony secures the United States’ domestic economy. But the nation’s military and economic might are more myth than reality. In fact, the United States’ weaknesses in these areas will cause the country’s downfall. So argues Emmanuel Todd, a French historian and sociologist in Apr

2

Academic scholars and political commentators have been predicting the fall of the American empire for years. It’s a preoccupation for both liberals and conservatives, Europeans and Americans. Putting aside for the moment the debate on whether the U.S. is really an “empire,” and using that loaded word as a synonym for “superpower” (a country whose military, economic, and cultural power far exceeds that of any other nation), I think it’s fair to say that the U.S.'s dominant position won’t last much more than two decades.

But it’s fair to point out that most commentators have gotten this question wrong before. Badly wrong. From Paul Kennedy to Immanuel Wallerstein, academics have greatly underestimated the strength of the American economy and military. From the Soviet Union to Germany to Japan to a united Europe to China back to a united Europe, too many examples have been casually tossed out as the Next Great Power even when it’s obvious at the time that none of them are anywhere near the U.S. in terms of raw united power.

3

Cultural power???

Please explain…

4

Yes, he’s right. After getting its fingers badly burned in Iraq, the U.S. will retreat into its shell and gradually decay, so that when the big conflict with China finally occurs, the U.S. will suffer a devastating defeat, and the world will have a new dominant superpower.

5

[quote=“Toe Save”]Cultural power???

Please explain…[/quote]

What’s there to explain? No one denies the U.S. has a vital culture that it exports in the form of language, ideas, and art (movies, jazz, rap, pop, rock, architecture, etc.). Not even the French deny this.

6

I have been waiting years for China to address the “Taiwan issue.” Not only would the stringing be fantastic, where else would you want to be when the shit hits the Strait?
But I know that no matter how many years I stay here, the conflict will only start after I am gone. It is possible, in one of those weird cosmic deals (that the gods cook up on bored weekends) that it is imperative for me to be here for peace to reign across the Taiwan Strait. :wink:

7

I think the U.S. is on its way to collapse. My reasoning isn’t nearly as involved as this frog’s; I simply look around and notice that most of my neighbors, and myself, have been unemployed for extended periods already, and the situation seems to be worsening. The caveat is that this is in Seattle, which has royally screwed itself in many different ways; the situation might be better nationwide. But if so, I sure don’t see it.

Washington state unemployment is at 7.5% and holding steady; the state’s chief economist said yesterday that it appears to have stabilized, and that while it won’t get better any time soon, it doesn’t appear to be getting any worse. The problem with that is that “7.5%” is based on the sliding window of people who are currently receiving unemployment insurance benefits. Of my immediate neighbors, four have run out of their benefits and are no longer counted, one never received any (“self-employed”) even though he hasn’t worked more than two hours a week for a year now, one is retired, one is fighting for benefits after a major illness cost her her job, one is at the end of her benefits, and one just lost his job. So: five are fully employed, one is retired, and EIGHT are unemployed with minimal prospects – of which six are no longer being counted in that “7.5%” statistic, and a seventh won’t be counted starting in about a month. For that rate to hold “steady”, it means rising actual unemployment and a deteriorating economy, not a steady-state flat economy.

This isn’t in a dumpy “Section 8” welfare neighborhood, this is an upscale area mostly containing skilled workers, with bare land going for US$200,000 for a small buildable lot.

“Consumer confidence” has been holding up, but I don’t see how it can continue to do so unless the job market improves. People have been surviving by burning through their home equity and acquiring additional debt. It can’t last unless the job market turns around, and there is no sign of that anywhere other than in vague assurances from the government about how “business investment is way up thanks to low interest rates, which will lead to a job boom Real Soon Now”.

8

[quote=“MaPoDoFu”]I think the U.S. is on its way to collapse. My reasoning isn’t nearly as involved as this frog’s; I simply look around and notice that most of my neighbors, and myself, have been unemployed for extended periods already, and the situation seems to be worsening. The caveat is that this is in Seattle, which has royally screwed itself in many different ways; the situation might be better nationwide. But if so, I sure don’t see it.

Washington state unemployment is at 7.5% and holding steady; the state’s chief economist said yesterday that it appears to have stabilized, and that while it won’t get better any time soon, it doesn’t appear to be getting any worse. The problem with that is that “7.5%” is based on the sliding window of people who are currently receiving unemployment insurance benefits. Of my immediate neighbors, four have run out of their benefits and are no longer counted, one never received any (“self-employed”) even though he hasn’t worked more than two hours a week for a year now, one is retired, one is fighting for benefits after a major illness cost her her job, one is at the end of her benefits, and one just lost his job. So: five are fully employed, one is retired, and EIGHT are unemployed with minimal prospects – of which six are no longer being counted in that “7.5%” statistic, and a seventh won’t be counted starting in about a month. For that rate to hold “steady”, it means rising actual unemployment and a deteriorating economy, not a steady-state flat economy.

This isn’t in a dumpy “Section 8” welfare neighborhood, this is an upscale area mostly containing skilled workers, with bare land going for US$200,000 for a small buildable lot.

“Consumer confidence” has been holding up, but I don’t see how it can continue to do so unless the job market improves. People have been surviving by burning through their home equity and acquiring additional debt. It can’t last unless the job market turns around, and there is no sign of that anywhere other than in vague assurances from the government about how “business investment is way up thanks to low interest rates, which will lead to a job boom Real Soon Now”.[/quote]

I agree with MaPoDoFu. Most everyone I know who used to enjoy an upper middle class standard of living is now struggling to maintain their old standard of living and up to their necks in debt. The jobs aren’t as good, business isn’t nearly as brisk as it used to be. Further, when the economy recovers a little and things get better, people don’t pay off those debts. They take on more debt to reward themselves for struggling so hard when things weren’t good.

I see this as having a significant impact on any sort of long-term recovery, and I think America’s economic position will eventually begin to crack. I’m not sure it will crumble, but it will take a backward step or two.

Exacerbating the problem is the fact that American politicians have no conception of the real problems middle class people face, i.e, outrageous tax rates and unaffordable medical insurance. They continue to tax people to death, and the medical insurance system gets more out of control every year. By the time these idiots figure out what’s happening, it may be too late.

9

[quote=“Cold Front”][quote=“Toe Save”]Cultural power???

Please explain…[/quote]

What’s there to explain? No one denies the U.S. has a vital culture that it exports in the form of language, ideas, and art (movies, jazz, rap, pop, rock, architecture, etc.). Not even the French deny this.[/quote]

Well, I am from Quebec. I speak French, so I can deny your claim for you thusly:

Movies? I prefer foreign films with scheming ingenues. Well, I also like those Amerikan flicks that show how tolerant yon Yanks can be, like Mississippi Burning and American History X

Jazz? I believe this actually began in, of all places, France. :shock:

Rap? Bad gangsta poetry? Yes…Culture? Not a chance.

Pop? You are stretching it here. Do you really expect us to take this seriously?

Rock? Hmmmm…Led Zeppelin, The Stones, Pink Floyd, Genesis and The Tragically Hip are my fav rocksters…exactly which one of these are Amerikan?

Architecture? One word: Gaudi!

But don’t you worry. When Amerika falls, Canada will be there to lead you out of the dark and into the light. We won’t let those ChiComs dictate your daily lives. You will, however, lose something very precious to you. 4th downs. But you gain an extra ten yards of playing field and we’ll even throw in a huge end zone. Special price…just for you. :wink:

You do have an excellent culture of violence though. Maybe you can find some waning solace in that. Woooo Hoooooo! You kin have ma gun when y’all kin pry it from ma cold dead hands.

10

My God, I swear I remember this guy’s book! I saw it on the shelf way back when it was considered really, really far-fetched–early 1980’s? And I’ve remembered it all these years–I mean, he gave the PERFECT reasons. The USSR would collapse because of (a) economic and (b) ethnic reasons, he said. Bingo.

I agree that we are living in an empire. To call it an “American” empire is simplistic, but it does center around the U.S., Europe, and East Asia. And of course only SOME of those Americans, Europeans, etc. get to reap the full benefits. (Oh yes, and Israelis.)

I also agree that this system is likely to collapse, probably much sooner than we think. It depends on too many things, which it might not get. If the supply of oil goes funky, or the sea-lanes are blocked, or some unforeseen technological glitch interferes with our system of financial exchanges…? Poof.

As for the U.S. in particular, notice how many Mexicans are coming into the country, by fair means or foul. At some point the demographic balance will tip, and people will stop putting up with their competing social interests. This is likely to lead to Yugoslavia-style political conflict. And I don’t just mean with white people–blacks have a lot to lose from this development too, and are more likely to use violence to resist it. Throw in economic collapse, and what have you got? Something a lot more serious than Schwarzenegger v. Bustamente…

I can see two possible “successor” regimes to all this: a “fast forward” one in which some internationalist regime actually takes charge of the world; and a “rewind” one in which we basically go back to the political situation of a century ago (but with different borders, of course).

It’s hard for me to take Russia seriously as a military power, though (a point from this new book). I mean, they should consider themselves lucky to hold themselves together. If their military could one day advance to the point where it might be able to beat Turkey, I would be impressed. Being made into a colony of Europe is more likely.

Europe as an important future power is a no-brainer. I think much of the present Middle East will eventually gravitate to the European sphere, so that “Europe” comes to include the rest of the Mediterranean.

Japan is going to have huge problems with aging. They’re not going to be a superpower, and all their money could go “poof” so easily it’s not even funny.

Neither will China, I think–sure they look impressive on the map, being so big and all, but like Russia I think they should consider themselves lucky to hold together at all. (Or unlucky, if you’re a Tibetan.)

11

MaPoDoFu and Tomas’s concerns about employment prospects are only too valid. The U.S. is set to lose millions of white-collar jobs to countries like India and the Philippines in the near future – the Internet is proving to be even more of an economic leveller than many had envisaged. With manufacturing taken over by China, and farming more and more in the hands (or rather, machines) of giant agro-industrial enterprises, just where will the average American be able to look to earn a living? The incomes of whatever jobs remain will continuously shrink, the consumer spending bubble will pop, tax revenues will be vastly insufficient, and the U.S. will be in very deep trouble.

I wonder when we’ll start to see the first waves of American emigrants trying to sneak illegally into China and elsewhere in East Asia?

12

Quod est demonstratum, baby? :stuck_out_tongue:

Oh. Hollyweird. Well, hey, for every boring bit of politically-correct lets-be-sensitive-to-minorities-and-women crap, there’s a few dozen T3’s and Finding Nemos to watch.

[quote=“Toe Save”]Jazz? I believe this actually began in, of all places, France. :shock:

Rap? Bad gangsta poetry? Yes…Culture? Not a chance.

Pop? You are stretching it here. Do you really expect us to take this seriously?
[/quote]
Jazz is dead. Try heavy metal, grunge, Britney Spears (nice boobies!), and (until last week) Warren Zevon.

Three words: Frank Lloyd Wright. While we’re at it, how about Arcosanti, SOM, and (personal favorite) Bucky’s geodesic dome?

Me too, me too!!! (Actually, me 47, 48 if you count the new belt-fed (some assembly required).)

13

I find this to be what I term "mental masturbation.’ See, I grew up during the great manufacturing job loss to Asia. I remeber all those books predicting the fall of the US and the coming rise of Asia, particularly Japan. I remember how bad things were in the late 80’s early 90’s for blue collar workers. My mom and her friends were blue collar workers.

The US will recover. We can and will change. I look around and I don’t see this characteristic in a lot of other countries. The big problem in the US is debt. People aren’t handling it well and financial education is sorely lacking in all levels of education. The internet bubble truly screwed things up and I think the posters fail to take into acct that the excesses of that period need to be worked out. Japan has been trying to work through its bubble for 10+ years. I believe this is year 2 for the US? Who knows what will happen next year.

As far as any other country even thinking about being a superpower. I can only chuckle. Who? Nobody else has the culture, military or economy to do so. China will come under more and more scrutiny as it tries to reassert itself. Japan is a superpower that absolutely no one else in Asia wants. Europe is a joke. Have you read over their new constitution? Are these the same people who bleat on and on about helping poor countries, then use CAP and export subsidies to destory poor countries agriculture. Lets not forget more people died in France this summer from the heat than died in Iraq due to fighting. The middle east is a mess, always will be most likely. India has too many troubles of its own, particularly Pakistan, Kashmir, AIDS and China. Australia has the balls but not the economy. Russia is unfortunately still in the afterglow of its post superpower status and retains its veto at the UN, ability to make very nasty weapons, and large organized criminal organizations that run the country. Which brings me to Canada. Canada has the military and the experience(they provide the leadership for UN operations in a lot of areas). The have culture, though sometimes mistaken for American. They sorely lack the economy, however.

14

Why does there have to be a superpower at all with globalization?

And isn’t China preening and preparing itself to take over the reins in this century? That’s what I hear, so how would that fare???

15

MaPoDoFu and Tomas –

The U.S. economy is doing fine. Unemployment is high compared to the last five to seven years, but that period was probably the most remarkable economy in U.S. history. Compared to most other periods over the last thirty years, however, the current unemployment rate (6.1%, according to the most recent issue of The Economist) is still on the low side. Let’s compare 6.1% to every year in the 1980s and 1990s.

1980 – 7.1%

1981 – 7.6%

1982 – 9.7%

1983 – 9.6%

1984 – 7.5%

1985 – 7.2%

1986 – 7.0%

1987 – 6.2%

1988 – 5.5%

1989 – 5.3%

1990 – 5.6%

1991 – 6.8%

1992 – 7.5%

1993 – 6.9%

1994 – 6.1%

1995 – 5.6%

1996 – 5.4%

1997 – 4.9%

1998 – 4.5%

1999 – 4.2%

2000 – 4.0%

2001 – 4.7%

2002 – 5.8%

The current unemployment rate is only high when compared to the last few years, but when compared to the 1970s, 1980s or even the first half of the 1990s, it is above average. Unemployment rates fluctuate. It’s natural and to be expected; it’s not a sign of imminent collapse.

Certain regions in the U.S. are also particularly vulnerable to spikes in unemployment because many industries are heavily based in those regions. As American manufacturing was hollowed out in the 1970s and 1980s, the Rust Belt was created in the Northeast and Midwestern states, where much of U.S. manufacturing was based. Fluctuations in oil prices can create economic booms and busts in Texas, but – except in the most extreme situations – leave the rest of the country unaffected. The state of Washington is heavily dependent on computers, aerospace, and trade – three sectors which have been hit hard recently. Silicon Valley in California was booming in the late 1990s. Now, it’s not. Is that because the U.S. is headed for a collapse or is a simpler explanation that the recent collapse in the computer and software industry has hit that region particularly hard?

No one in the world is better than the United States at creating new industries that fuel future economic growth. Not the E.U. Not the Japanese. And certainly not countries like China, which simply import the industries and management methods of other countries to build their economy.

16

[quote=“Toe Save”][quote=“Cold Front”][quote=“Toe Save”]Cultural power???

Please explain…[/quote]

What’s there to explain? No one denies the U.S. has a vital culture that it exports in the form of language, ideas, and art (movies, jazz, rap, pop, rock, architecture, etc.). Not even the French deny this.[/quote]

Well, I am from Quebec. I speak French, so I can deny your claim for you thusly: [blah,blah,blah…][/quote]

ToeSave, you’re a bit of an idiot, aren’t you? Hubert V

17

[quote=“Cold Front”][quote=“Toe Save”][quote=“Cold Front”][quote=“Toe Save”]Cultural power???

Please explain…[/quote]

What’s there to explain? No one denies the U.S. has a vital culture that it exports in the form of language, ideas, and art (movies, jazz, rap, pop, rock, architecture, etc.). Not even the French deny this.[/quote]

Well, I am from Quebec. I speak French, so I can deny your claim for you thusly: [blah,blah,blah…][/quote]

ToeSave, you’re a bit of an idiot, aren’t you?[/quote]

Ouch! I think I am gonna cry. The big, bad American has hurt my little feelings.

Grow up you pedantic wad of horseshit…I was playing fast and loose with what has become my fav troll and you immediately resort to name calling…good thing you don’t know where I live or you might come over and shoot me.

18

All this talk about China being the next superpower…perhaps, but all the “experts” and the like forget one important thing. The Chinese have a nasty habit of self-destructing.

19

[quote=“Omniloquacious”]MaPoDoFu and Tomas’s concerns about employment prospects are only too valid. The U.S. is set to lose millions of white-collar jobs to countries like India and the Philippines in the near future – the Internet is proving to be even more of an economic leveller than many had envisaged. With manufacturing taken over by China, and farming more and more in the hands (or rather, machines) of giant agro-industrial enterprises, just where will the average American be able to look to earn a living? The incomes of whatever jobs remain will continuously shrink, the consumer spending bubble will pop, tax revenues will be vastly insufficient, and the U.S. will be in very deep trouble.

I wonder when we’ll start to see the first waves of American emigrants trying to sneak illegally into China and elsewhere in East Asia?[/quote]

How about never.

Americans will find their living where thay have always found their living: by creating the new industries that spur productivity and growth. Do you think trade with poor countries is something new under the sun? Many poor countries, of course, have the same lament as you have: that trade with wealthy countries is unfair to them because they can’t compete with the machines and high productivity found in the West.

Generally speaking, free trade is a lubricant for higher standards of living to all who are involved in it. Certainly trade can be hard on some segments of the U.S. economy, but it’s a boon for other segments, and those segments are usually better paying than the traditional ones.

20

Don’t know much about economics (about the only I thing I know is how to make and spend money :slight_smile: ) but I think irresponsible spending habits in America is also big trouble. Lots of folks going into debt for crap. Getting into debt for stuff they can do without.

It seems to me that it is more important to have a credit rating than actual money back in the States.