Is Tesla the new Apple or Amiga?

[quote=“headhonchoII”]There’s no way to answer your point, there’s no exact number the stock should settle at vs. sales numbers. If they sell a lot more cars, and keep their lead vs other manufacturers, it seems likely their stock will shoot up lots more, that’s all I can predict. How long it will then remain at the highs, probably will depend on how quickly the big companies could catch up. Merc and BMW and Ford are at least 5 years behind Tesla. Tesla is also preparing their future production plans, who else would be able to ramp up without depending on Tesla’s battery packs?

You know how well Tesla have done?
usatoday.com/story/money/car … /17827533/

Ford have just sold 1,500 of their electric Focus so far (Tesla has sold 50,000 Model S), all they can do is CLAIM they can make a Tesla like car. They are trying to play catch and it’s not really their game. Their game is to sell loads of trucks and hybrids and regular sedans. What’s Ford going to do, make an electric Lincoln :roflmao: (according to this reporter). Who would want to buy that? The problem for a company like Ford is the more electric vehicles they sell the more money they will lose!
time.com/money/3529146/cheap-gas … ctric-car/

Mercedes and Porsche…same situation. They are too big and too slow to turn around their business model.
engadget.com/2014/10/26/pors … la-rivals/

Are their CEOs really prepared to risk billions, with their jobs aswell? Or are they just going to put a couple of token models out there to say they are doing something?

Eventually the other companies may catch up, but it could be 10 years later according to current developments. By then Tesla would have created the next big car company (or at that stage driverless vehicle company). Also there are surely many very large companies like Apple or Google with billions in cash who would love to get a piece of this pie by investing in Tesla. Tesla is going for an Apple strategy overall and will do well with just a few % of the market but a complete solution (great electric cars and charging infrastructure and cool brand) the other car manufacturers will really struggle to compete.[/quote]

You still are not understanding my point at all. If you don’t want to project how many cars they need to sell then try how much revenue or how much earnings. Your claims that they are the best electric car mean nothing. They have a 30B market cap and to support a 30B market cap they need some massive earnings. To have massive earnings they need to sell a shitload of cars. My question is: ‘how much is a shitload’?

Basically if you can’t put a number on my question then you are just speculating that Tesla is going to awesome and go up indefinitely. That would make this a gamble rather than an investment.

Contrary to what you stated I did give numbers, 1,500 Ford Focus electric sales to date, 50,000 Tesla S to date. Tesla S carries a hefty profit per sale, Focus a loss. It’s just an example of where the market is now. The Tesla S has no existing competition in it’s space, everything else has worse specs and much higher pricing.

An investment is a gamble. Nobody has a crystal ball. Investing in GM a few years ago should have been a ‘decent investment’ since it sold all the trucks that America was supposed to want but then it almost went bankrupt.

I said if Tesla continues to do well with it’s new sedan or cross-over vehicle launch it’s stock will go up, and it will not face significant competition in this segment for many years, it’s not rocket science. I personally would not invest at this stage as it needs the next launch to be a success to really trend up again and yes it is valued highly already. It has already had it’s massive ramp up from when I started this thread from 30 USD/stock to 250 USD/stock just recently. Nothing similar will happen in future. It’s exponential growth in valuation has already occurred and that’s the bit that made me take notice last year.

Musk keeps hitting it out the park given the odd rocket explosion or two!

These numbers blew me away.
The stock could double again if this starts selling like hot cakes.l with demand from both utilities and consumers.

inhabitat.com/can-teslas-battery … he-iphone/

[quote=“Abacus”]You still are not understanding my point at all. If you don’t want to project how many cars they need to sell then try how much revenue or how much earnings. Your claims that they are the best electric car mean nothing. They have a 30B market cap and to support a 30B market cap they need some massive earnings. To have massive earnings they need to sell a shitload of cars. My question is: ‘how much is a shitload’?

Basically if you can’t put a number on my question then you are just speculating that Tesla is going to awesome and go up indefinitely. That would make this a gamble rather than an investment.[/quote]

Insert NFLX comparisons… If it was only about earnings per share, the world of stock picking would be pretty easy wouldn’t it? When people invest in Tesla, they are buying the future, not current revenue.

[quote=“BrentGolf”][quote=“Abacus”]You still are not understanding my point at all. If you don’t want to project how many cars they need to sell then try how much revenue or how much earnings. Your claims that they are the best electric car mean nothing. They have a 30B market cap and to support a 30B market cap they need some massive earnings. To have massive earnings they need to sell a shitload of cars. My question is: ‘how much is a shitload’?

Basically if you can’t put a number on my question then you are just speculating that Tesla is going to awesome and go up indefinitely. That would make this a gamble rather than an investment.[/quote]

Insert NFLX comparisons… If it was only about earnings per share, the world of stock picking would be pretty easy wouldn’t it? When people invest in Tesla, they are buying the future, not current revenue.[/quote]

C’mon Brent you are far smarter than this. Right now investors are buying on hope but someday that hope has to translate to earnings/share. Hope only lasts for so long.

[quote=“Abacus”][quote=“BrentGolf”][quote=“Abacus”]You still are not understanding my point at all. If you don’t want to project how many cars they need to sell then try how much revenue or how much earnings. Your claims that they are the best electric car mean nothing. They have a 30B market cap and to support a 30B market cap they need some massive earnings. To have massive earnings they need to sell a shitload of cars. My question is: ‘how much is a shitload’?

Basically if you can’t put a number on my question then you are just speculating that Tesla is going to awesome and go up indefinitely. That would make this a gamble rather than an investment.[/quote]

Insert NFLX comparisons… If it was only about earnings per share, the world of stock picking would be pretty easy wouldn’t it? When people invest in Tesla, they are buying the future, not current revenue.[/quote]

C’mon Brent you are far smarter than this. Right now investors are buying on hope but someday that hope has to translate to earnings/share. Hope only lasts for so long.[/quote]

Sometimes being smart just means acknowledging what is and has always been. There’s no mystery here, the stock market has been rewarding certain types of companies with valuations far in excess of their earnings per share for as long as the stock market has been around. But I’m sure you’re right, companies like Amazon that have had high P/E’s since they IPO’d, I’m sure the day of earnings per share matching reckoning is just around the corner right? :loco: You know, you can always short these companies if you feel inclined…

Tesla will likely always have a super high P/E ratio, it’s just that kind of company. So is NFLX, so is Amazon, and so is about 500 others if you’ve got time to name them all. Not rocket science, just pull up the Nasdaq and start checking for yourself…

And the model 3 is going to kill it ! :slight_smile:

The average Wall Street analyst have pegged tesla at 270 usd now as the right value. watch them eat shit with a smile on their face as the stock climbs to 500 from overwhelming demand for the SUV model launching September. Do you guys know how many cars and SUVs are sold just in the US per year? This is Teslas iPhone moment.

Up to 6 million crossovers including SUVs sold in the US each year. Just the US…
It’s all here in black and white staring people in the face.
online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 … sales.html

Americans love SUVs, Asians love SUVs, and I’d like one of them myself!
They have such a huge head start with the gigafactory project, nobody is going to catch them for years , the big boys can’t just retool all their operations and source and test battery packs from nowhere.
500 usd within the year, 1000 within 2-3 years. brand power, tech, quality control, environmental trends . Did I mention their cars are almost supercar fast? Still lots of juice left in this. Note I didn’t even mention the power wall, which is an awesome product in its own right.

I’m a Tesla fan as much as the next guy but those are some very ambitious predictions there. :astonished:

Ya think Brett? 50,000 model s this year blowing past estimate in 2nd half. 1,5000 cars a week production capacity. Only need to get 5% of total American crossover market for 300,000 cars a year. The crossover is mostly based on the Model S which is a world leading car and well tested on the market.
Easily could do those kind of sales in a few years. Look at the story of the Prius as an example. tesla can reach beyond Prius market. Then adding the Model 3 in a couple of years. This is US only. Now think about the demand from other countries? heard they will open a factory in EU also to match demand.

Here’s data on luxury car sales, since the model X is in the pricey bracket, 10 of top 15 are SUVA models. From this estimate total market is about 1-2 million luxury vehicles per year.

goodcarbadcar.net/2015/05/ca … s.html?m=1

The real question is if we humans are ready to leave fossil fuels behind our cars. No more taxes on oil at the pump. How fast can we charge those batteries? If we can charge them as fast as we can fill up a tank of oil. That would be something else. Are there enough places to charge those batteries? Maybe we should stop thinking about charging batteries, just replacing the batteries when you run out?

[quote=“headhonchoII”]Ya think Brett? 50,000 model s this year blowing past estimate in 2nd half. 1,5000 cars a week production capacity. Only need to get 5% of total American crossover market for 300,000 cars a year. The crossover is mostly based on the Model S which is a world leading car and well tested on the market.
Easily could do those kind of sales in a few years. Look at the story of the Prius as an example. tesla can reach beyond Prius market. Then adding the Model 3 in a couple of years. This is US only. Now think about the demand from other countries? heard they will open a factory in EU also to match demand.

Here’s data on luxury car sales, since the model X is in the pricey bracket, 10 of top 15 are SUVA models. From this estimate total market is about 1-2 million luxury vehicles per year.

goodcarbadcar.net/2015/05/ca … s.html?m=1[/quote]

I agree with those numbers and am just as positive on the company as anyone. My only issue is about pricing the actual stock. That doesn’t have a whole lot to do with numbers for a company like Tesla (or Netflix or Amazon or Facebook etc). It’s more about the story, and being one of the lucky few companies that can keep people buying it when it’s P/E is astronomical. If it’s in the high P/E club and institutions just keep buying and buying regardless of net income, then yeah it can push a lot higher. But institutions are funny that way. No real rhyme or reason to what they buy, just gotta roll the dice if Tesla is one of them. I believe Tesla will just keep increasing market share year after year, smashing it out of the park with the Model X, then the 3, and all the ambitious battery plans etc… I just don’t think people will keep buying it up to 1000$ in 2-3 years. Maybe 6 or 7 years, and after a few splits, but not 2-3. We’ll see though, that would be pretty amazing wouldn’t it. Tesla at 1000$ :bravo:

The numbers are a tad ambitious but at least doubling within the next year is definitely within reach with a successful model X launch. The model x launch has less risk baked in because Tesla is tooled up, has the team in place, has most of the chassis and battery road tested and there is the demand in the market. I don’t really bother with PE ratios, this is mostly momentum . They are a leader in next gen transportation and that’s got a lot of market space to grow due to four
Interacting factors a) electric battery cost coming down rapidly b) climate change becoming accepted and therefore mitigation required c) air pollution concerns d) increasing prosperity around the world along with rush to buy cars in developing countries

And if you’re a Tesla investor, you hope nobody else does either because if people valued companies based on an honest fundamental analysis, look out below for a lot of these high flyers. But so far everyone is buying the story and chasing the momentum so it’s all good for you :slight_smile:

Well Amazon did it for 20 years and they made a profit…this year :slight_smile:.

Tesla needs a good launch to raise the stock price and then finance the production, I have confidence they can do it. the launch was delayed a few times so that should have given them time to iron out issues.

Look at my numbers above , the automobile industry is very competitive but is certainly
One of the worlds biggest market sectors, so it does justify some of that momentum type investment. It worked for google. Luxury vehicles sell for what, 80k+, so it’s around a 80-120 billion USD market in the U.S. alone each year.

I admit I am looking for facts to bolster my case. …for investment…but they are there!

cleantechnica.com/2015/05/06/eur … s-booming/

Apart from the great sales numbers of tesla s in Europe , what really surprised me was the Mistubishi SUV sales.

Model X is going to kick it out of the park as the demand is proven to be there.

[quote=“headhonchoII”]I admit I am looking for facts to bolster my case. …for investment…but they are there!

cleantechnica.com/2015/05/06/eur … s-booming/

Apart from the great sales numbers of tesla s in Europe , what really surprised me was the Mistubishi SUV sales.

Model X is going to kick it out of the park as the demand is proven to be there.[/quote]

Well it’s a momentum stock, and so it’s all about keeping people interested. The stock price is far inflated compared to actual earnings, even forward looking earnings, but that doesn’t always matter. For Tesla it’s just about keeping it exciting. And I’ll tell ya, if I had 150,000$ to drop on a car, the new P-90D with ludicrous mode is just about the most perfect car in the world. Looks amazing, comfortable to drive, reliable, 4 adults with golf club space, and it does 0-60 faster than a Ferrari or McLaren. It’s hard to imagine this thing even exists, but then Musk never does anything boring…

[quote=“headhonchoII”]I don’t think you know enough about the world of energy to discuss it reasonably, your only answer is inflation and politics? Yes inflation and politics matter, no they are not the main reason why oil costs so much now. The issue had already been explained to you, the easy, cheap and high quality oil resources have almost all been accessed already. That coupled with a massive increase in demand means peak oil is a reality, it’s never going to get cheaper to extract because that cheap stuff is GONE and there is no easy replacement in sight. Oil is not something can be recycled or created cheaply from other sources and dirty oil requires refining which adds to cost. The extraction of oil from oil sands in Alberta was only economically feasible in the last few years with oil continuing to hover around 100 USD a barrel.

rff.org/Publications/WPC/Pag … esent.aspx

This all matters, for if oil could suddenly become much cheaper again electric cars would not have a real future, but I can’t see how this can happen with the supply situation along with ramping demand for energy worldwide.[/quote]

It seems I have to eat a rather large portion of HUMBLE pie. :blush:
Wrong on both peak oil timing and that electric cars would have no future with cheaper oil.
Very wrong. :roflmao:

theatlantic.com/business/arc … es/400745/

Stock is sitting at 200 usd right now, I reckon it’s a good buy given the model 3 is going to come out within 2 years and they have got the gigafactory up and running and also distribution and autopilot very much improved.

Musk considering taking Tesla private at a price of $420/share.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-musk-text/tesla-statement-on-potential-deal-to-go-private-idUSKBN1KS277

Elon Musk enjoying a relaxing chat.

Don’t agree with their headline.