Re: Gilley's 'Finlandization' model - valid or off the mark?

This should settle the matter of Taiwan’s status once and for all. After reading this, you should be able to say with supreme confidence, “I have no clue”:

[quote]Nixon: I noticed in the Washington daily news summary, the editorial, they made it to be critical of the fact that there was no mention of the Taiwan Independence Movement.


Nixon: What in the hell is the Taiwanese Independence Movement all about?

Kissinger: It’s not a significant movement now. It’s violently opposed by both the Chinese Governments. Chiang Kai-shek had locked up the leader of the Taiwanese Independence Movement [Peng Ming-min], and he’s now in this country as an exile.

Nixon: I know.


Kissinger: . . . . But I noticed somebody must be feeding that because The New York Times, which never used to give a damn about Taiwan, had an editorial about that last week too.

Nixon: On the independence movement…

Kissinger: Yeah.

Nixon: . . . . That’s so goddamn— have you ever heard of the Taiwan Independence Movement?

Kissinger: No.

Haldeman: No. Not enough to matter.

Kissinger: I can’t speculate.

Nixon: But we haven’t, the other thing, I didn’t see anything in the State Department papers indicating that we ought to support the Taiwan Independence Movement.

Kissinger: Absolutely not.

Nixon: Did we?

Kissinger: No.

Nixon: There’s some kind of flap on it. Did [Secretary of State William P.] Rogers raise that in his—

Kissinger: No. Well, they raised it at—

Nixon: At the end?


Nixon: . . . . What did he say . . . ?

Kissinger: . . . . At the end he did raise it among 500 other nit-picks.

Nixon: What 500?

Kissinger: Well, 18, 15. But in this catalog of nit-picks there was the Taiwan Independence Movement. But our formulation doesn’t even preclude, it states it has to be settled by the Chinese themselves. Naturally the Taiwanese are Chinese.

Nixon: Are Chinese.

Kissinger: If they want to secede, that’s their business.


Nixon: Our private understanding is that—

Kissinger: That we won’t encourage it.

Nixon: We won’t encourage it, that’s all.

Kissinger: We didn’t say we will oppose it either.

Nixon: We didn’t say we will discourage it either.

Kissinger: We didn’t say we’d oppose it. We said we will give it no support. And that’s been our position. We have never given it any support.[/quote]–“Conversation Among President Nixon, his Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger), and his Chief of Staff (Haldeman),” March 13, [color=#000080]1972[/color], in Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XVII, China, 1969–1972, Document 212

[quote]Chairman Mao: It’s better for it to be in your hands. And if you were to send it back to me now, I would not want it, because it’s not wantable. There are a huge bunch of counter-revolutionaries there. A hundred years hence we will want it (gesturing with his hand), and we are going to fight for it.

Secretary Kissinger: Not a hundred years.

Chairman Mao: (Gesturing with his hand, counting) It is hard to say. Five years, ten, twenty, a hundred years. It’s hard to say. (Points toward the ceiling) And when I go to heaven to see God, I’ll tell him it’s better to have Taiwan under the care of the United States now.[/quote]Conversation between Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and Chairman Mao Zedong, among others, October 21, [color=#000080]1975[/color], in Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XVIII, China, 1973–1976, Document 124