That’s exactly right. Even a democratic China would not allow Taiwan to be independent because the Mainland populace itself is against it. And you’re right about the Taiwanese as well. It all points to a grim chance for de jure taiwan independence.
Taiwanese will drift towards the mainland naturally. This is why the west spends so much money supporting separatism. When the west runs out of money, the separatism will die, and the Chinese will unify. Blood is thicker than water, and you can see from the Chinese diaspora that Chinese culture runs deep. You see it in Chinese Americans, Indonesian Chinese, and even Chinese Filipinos. I know a guy who’s family has been in Taiwan for 200+ years, and you know what his family grave says? Hunan. Bare in mind, this guy has no connection with Hunan at all, and his family was probably in Hunan 400 years ago, because his family actually came from Guang Dong to Taiwan. Chinese people are not like Americans, who don’t even know where their ancestors come from. The minute the west, and Japan releases its choke hold on Taiwan, Taiwanese will do what is natural. If you want independence for Taiwan, first cut ties with the west, and Japan. That’s the first step. You can’t really call yourself independent if your government is dictated by the west and Japan. Look at all the imports in Taiwan. What does Taiwan even produce these days? Every Japanese import means a reduction in Taiwanese jobs. Stop wasting your money on iphones, and make your own indigenous one. For every Abercrombie, or Roots clothing you buy, you can buy 5 of the same thing that is made by your own compatriots. Stop drinking Starbucks, and support your local bubble tea shop. That’s how you achieve independence.
blah blah blah…we got ourselves a Chinese nationalist here and make no mistake. 
It’s USA that does not allow Taiwan to be independent (from the USA occupied territory). Both PRC and ROC know very clearly that they don’t have a legal right to have a claim of Taiwan territory.
As I just (6 weeks) started living in Taipei, I think I do not have enough info to have a well-reasoned opinion on this subject.
However, my opinion as an outsider is that Taiwan is behaving as an independent nation at this moment, much more than for example Kosovo was/is (94 nations support its independence).
Is the only reason many people think that Taiwan should not declare independence the threat of a war with the PRC? Is that even realistic?
IMHO, the only thing that China would loose by recognizing Taiwanese independence is their ‘pride’. Starting a war would probably result in huge economic losses, a thing valued much higher in 21st century China. This again IMHO.
But maybe because China is gaining more and more power, this would be the perfect moment to declare independence, before it’s too late! With ‘too late’, I mean: before the PRC will have complete power over the world-economy, bigger than NATO or any other group of the traditional leading countries in the world.
[quote=“tuosi”]As I just (6 weeks) started living in Taipei, I think I do not have enough info to have a well-reasoned opinion on this subject.
However, my opinion as an outsider is that Taiwan is behaving as an independent nation at this moment, much more than for example Kosovo was/is (94 nations support its independence).
Is the only reason many people think that Taiwan should not declare independence the threat of a war with the PRC? Is that even realistic?
IMHO, the only thing that China would loose by recognizing Taiwanese independence is their ‘pride’. Starting a war would probably result in huge economic losses, a thing valued much higher in 21st century China. This again IMHO.
But maybe because China is gaining more and more power, this would be the perfect moment to declare independence, before it’s too late! With ‘too late’, I mean: before the PRC will have complete power over the world-economy, bigger than NATO or any other group of the traditional leading countries in the world.[/quote]
That’s pretty much it, in a nutshell.
China is using the Senkaku islands to intimidate Taiwan. If Taiwanese thinks China would go all battleship against Japan for 3 tiny god forsaken uninhabitable islands, think what they’d do to Taiwan. Frankly, I know the KMT and Chiang family would never allowed Taiwan to declare independence, but Taiwan should have done so back in 1996. That was the perfect timing.
taiwan is independent even if it is not officially recognized on paper. nuff said and case closed. 
Not if you ask the Philippines. Or the UN. Or any other international organization (WTO and WHO excluded). 
You are partially right because Taiwan is still occupied by a bunch of Chinese renegades.
And yet you are also partially wrong. Taiwan is effectively independent, but China prevents this from being formalised. Taiwan should try to slowly and carefully move towards de jure independence. De jure independence cannot be achieved until the bunch of Chinese renegades return and/or are returned to China.
Exactly. Get the KMT to fuck off back to China, and apologize for changing the constitution of China in 1947 to include Taiwan (an island over which they did not actually have sovereignty)… and then Taiwan might have a chance at becoming recognised as an independent country.
Oh, and tell the KMT to take their bunch of looted treasure with them. And at the same time, remind the CCP that their Maoist zealots would have burned it all back in 1965. Savages.
Without the KMT, there would be no Taiwanese. Everybody on Taiwan would be Han Japanese along with the Ryukyu, Yamato and Ainu Japanese. My 80+ year old Taiwanese (benshenren) grandmother speaks with her siblings exclusively in Japanese even though they know how to speak Taiwanese.
Is that a bad thing?!
Imagine if Taiwan was the only territory Japan didn’t hand back?
Is that a bad thing?!
Imagine if Taiwan was the only territory Japan didn’t hand back?[/quote]
Depends on what you feel is important to you. There would be no talk of a Taiwanese identity and there would be no Taiwanese culture. Karate originated on the Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa) but because Japan is now in control of Okinawa, we associate Karate with Japan, not the Ryukyus. Everything we today call Taiwanese would be called Japanese.
Democratically elected Taiwanese representatives who were exclusively 本省人 and mixed of KMT/non-KMT membership took part in the assembly that voted on each and every article of the 1947 constitution.
Besides, sovereignty is mostly a matter of actually executing power. When considering the evolution of sovereignty in North America, how exactly were the settlers able to gain control to the land? 250 years forward nobody seriously denies the USA being a sovereign country.
These often quoted “international principles of transferring sovereignty” can - except for theoretical abstracts and deliberations - only be found in between European powers in the 19th and 20th Century. These powers being highly influential at the time, it is no surprise that we now say “international principles of sovereignty transfer”.
Yet are these so called principles codified in every country’s laws, are they even always followed? Certainly not and thus any debate over which flag should be on top of the Presidential Office is ridiculous.
Demanding the KMT to leave this island even more so considering that the party takes part in democratic elections and enjoys the support of large parts of Taiwan’s society. And before you say “oh these are all 外省人” - how about a Cherokee deports you back to England or wherever your ancestors hailed from.
[quote=“Dirt”]Without the KMT, there would be no Taiwanese. Everybody on Taiwan would be Han Japanese along with the Ryukyu, Yamato and Ainu Japanese. My 80+ year old Taiwanese (benshenren) grandmother speaks with her siblings exclusively in Japanese even though they know how to speak Taiwanese.[/quote].
They’d be Taiwanese Japanese not Taiwanese Chinese then. In fact it’s likely they would have moved towards independence already and would have a substantial Japanisation but with strong local island and Chinese characteristics. The situation in Taiwan was different than Okinawa and others.
Is that a bad thing?!
Imagine if Taiwan was the only territory Japan didn’t hand back?[/quote]
Depends on what you feel is important to you. There would be no talk of a Taiwanese identity and there would be no Taiwanese culture. Karate originated on the Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa) but because Japan is now in control of Okinawa, we associate Karate with Japan, not the Ryukyus. Everything we today call Taiwanese would be called Japanese.[/quote]
Why? There was talk of Taiwanese identity in the 1920s which is why you had the formation of the Taiwan Culture Association and Taiwan First Party, both of which agitated for home rule.
These groups were suppressed only because of the Sino-Japanese War. Otherwise, it is very likely Taiwan would have gone on to be self-ruling.
Who is “we”? 
Everybody else i’ve ever met and talked about Karate (admittedly only a small fraction of humankind) associated it with Okinawa. And so do all the Karate websites that i’ve seen…
If Taiwan was still part of Japan today, chances are i’d be living in a better Japan: a Japan more accepting of diversity, with Okinawa’s own languages recognized and with better relations with China.
Tangential comment: As it stands, the election results of last Sunday (July 21) are seen by certain dull nationalists (of whom Japan has unfortunately many, especially in the bigggest cities) as a licence to agitate for policies aimed at curbing free speech and other civil liberties here, to change the constitution to allow a military for non-defensive purposes, and to prescribe exercises in flag-waving patriotism from childhood onward - all a first step toward another war. Almost makes you wish the next nuclear reactor that blows up was a lot closer to Tokio or Osaka than the last one…
Back to the topic: If polititians in “the west” (and the countries controlled by it, like Japan) weren’t so fond of sacrificing their gonads to the gods of the new religion (capitalism), they’d have long ago acknowledged the reality that has naturally come into existence in Taiwan and offer to establish diplomatic relations with Taipei. What do you think the goverment in Beijing is going to do if the worlds 5 largest economies were to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan? Suspend all trade with those nations? Bwahahahaha…
[quote=“headhonchoII”][quote=“Dirt”]Without the KMT, there would be no Taiwanese. Everybody on Taiwan would be Han Japanese along with the Ryukyu, Yamato and Ainu Japanese. My 80+ year old Taiwanese (benshenren) grandmother speaks with her siblings exclusively in Japanese even though they know how to speak Taiwanese.[/quote].
They’d be Taiwanese Japanese not Taiwanese Chinese then. In fact it’s likely they would have moved towards independence already and would have a substantial Japanisation but with strong local island and Chinese characteristics. The situation in Taiwan was different than Okinawa and others.[/quote]
Okinawa was ruled separately from Japan for over 20 years. In 1972, the USA gave Okinawa back to Japan. At that point, Japan could have allowed Okinawa to be independent but they didn’t.
The whole point of the Sino-Japanese War was for Japan to acquire more territory and they succeeded in getting Taiwan. Given their history, they would never voluntarily give up terriotory that they fought and won by allowing Taiwan to achieve independence.
Is that a bad thing?!
Imagine if Taiwan was the only territory Japan didn’t hand back?[/quote]
Depends on what you feel is important to you. There would be no talk of a Taiwanese identity and there would be no Taiwanese culture. Karate originated on the Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa) but because Japan is now in control of Okinawa, we associate Karate with Japan, not the Ryukyus. Everything we today call Taiwanese would be called Japanese.[/quote]
Why? There was talk of Taiwanese identity in the 1920s which is why you had the formation of the Taiwan Culture Association and Taiwan First Party, both of which agitated for home rule.
These groups were suppressed only because of the Sino-Japanese War. Otherwise, it is very likely Taiwan would have gone on to be self-ruling.[/quote]
As above, the Sino-Japanese War was about Japan acquiring territory, why would they voluntarily give up the territory of Taiwan? That goes against everything they were fighting for.
[quote=“yuli”][quote=“Dirt”]Karate originated on the Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa) but because Japan is now in control of Okinawa, we associate Karate with Japan, not the Ryukyus. Who is “we”? Everybody else I’ve ever met and talked about Karate (admittedly only a small fraction of humankind) associated it with Okinawa. And so do all the Karate websites that I’ve seen…
If Taiwan was still part of Japan today, chances are I’d be living in a better Japan: a Japan more accepting of diversity, with Okinawa’s own languages recognized and with better relations with China.[/quote][/quote]
You’re right, people do associate Karate with Okinawa, Prefecture of Japan. People, however, do not associate Karate with the formerly independent Ryukyu Kingdom. “Taiwan” would likely no longer be the name of the Formosan islands under Japan, it being a Chinese name and all, they likely would change it to a Japanese name. And everything coming out of the Formosan island would likely be called from [insert Japanese Prefecture name here], Prefecture of Japan. And I don’t see benshenren minding the change to a Japanese name given how much they seem to dislike being Chinese. “Taiwanese” would no longer exist today. Just as “Ryukyuan” no longer exists today except in history books.