If its so obvious what the DPP should do (tone down the TI rhetoric), why don’t they just do it? They can’t be that dumb. Chen Shui Bian in his 1st term as President did tone down the rhetoric, he said things like TI is an impossibility. And then he went the opposite direction later. DPP fears nothing more than alienating its base. Why?
This is a joke, right? 
They’re Taiwanese politicians. Of COURSE they can be that dumb. In fact, they’ve barely even scratched the surface.
I thought that was the idea. I remember Tsai saying before the election that she hoped the TSU would make the 5% threshold on the party list. The idea being that the TSU acts as a home for disgruntled deep greens while Tsai pushes the DPP to the centre. The trouble is that there are too many deep greens for the TSU to absorb and the cooperation between the parties needs to remain strong so that the TSU does not become an electoral threat to the DPP.
[quote=“BAH”]
3) Wait for the right moment. I think the last good chance was during Tienanmen, and perhaps to a lesser extent in 1996 with the US fleet in the Taiwan Strait. Like many have said I think the next time there’s great internal instability or when the CCP collapses may be a good time. The problem is having the resolve to act when that time comes and knowing in the heat of the moment whether or not that it’s the right time.
I’m sure there are holes in what I’ve outlined above but I’m trying to address the OP’s question as to how we can have de jure independence.[/quote]
Back to the discussion around the right moment – I’ve been thinking about whether the recent Bo Xilai incident would have provided a good opportunity, and the answer is “no.” So short of a complete collapse of China or a descent into chaos to declare independence, what are the right conditions? I’ll throw some conditions out there for thought and debate:
- The ability for internal decision-making (whether CCP or PLA) to make coherent and quick decisions has to be paralyzed
- Has to high profile so that the world’s attention is focused (best if negatively) on China so that Taiwan declaring independence would gain support, or at least understanding
So using the above 2 criteria, Tiananmen Square fits (2) – the world hated China at the time and would have understood Taiwan not wanting to be part of a brutal regime, but not (1). Both the CCP and PLA would have acted quickly.
I’m not sure if something like the cultural revolution would fit the bill.
A declaration will result in war, even if China has some internal strife at the time. Chinese would immediately unite beind the PLA or a faction that represented a strong nationalist force.
Taiwan needs to cherish it’s undeclared independence and wait for the world to change.
A similar situation happened in Ireland where it took centuries for the Irish to achieve independence from the UK, multiple failed rebellions, even following the war of independence there were compromises such as the partition of the island which then caused a vicious civil immediately after the creation of the free state and ongoing problems to this day. Ironically Ireland could probably have achieved this result by peaceful means a few decades later. The situation in N Ireland is not perfect but it does give some pointers for Taiwan as they can hold two British and Irish passports simultaneously and the EU creates an overall framework which helps to maintain peace , the rule of law and a European identity.
In my opinion Taiwan needs to work within a framework in a similar manner. It cannot ignore the elephant in the rooms concerns as much as Cuba can pretend to ignore the US.
Taiwan has to work with the elephant to get a compromise , it is better off waiting for the elephant to slowly mature, in the meantime it should continue to strengthen it’s economic, social and cultural relations with the world at large.
What kind of Mainland China would voluntarily let Taiwan go? As long as the Mainland population are so pro unification, even a fully democratic China would not let Taiwan go, as the people would demand that their government stop it (by force if necessary). So what will change the mindset of the average Chinese?
hello kitty could do it.
if we let her.
Is this a topic even worth debating when we already know the answer? 
Won’t happen. Realpolitik and power dynamics will triumph.
The PRC is willing to go all-out against the US over Taiwan if war ever breaks out. The same cannot be said of the US.
The Chinese mindset toward the US regarding Taiwan: You intervene in our family business that is closest to our heart, we will fight you all the way including nuclear war. And we’re willing to take the damage until our goals are met.
Reminds me of the North Vietnamese minister Pham Van Dong, who told the US during the Vietnam War, “How long are you willing to fight us over South Vietnam? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? 200 years? We will be more than happy to accompany you.”
Sun Tzu said lose the tactical battles, win the strategic victory at the end.
[quote=“reztrop”]Is this a topic even worth debating when we already know the answer? Won’t happen. Realpolitik and power dynamics will triumph.
The PRC is willing to go all-out against the US over Taiwan if war ever breaks out. The same cannot be said of the US.
The Chinese mindset toward the US regarding Taiwan: You intervene in our family business that is closest to our heart, we will fight you all the way including nuclear war. And we’re willing to take the damage until our goals are met.
Reminds me of the North Vietnamese minister Pham Van Dong, who told the US during the Vietnam War, “How long are you willing to fight us over South Vietnam? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? 200 years? We will be more than happy to accompany you.”
Sun Tzu said lose the tactical battles, win the strategic victory at the end.[/quote]
Indeed. Some form of unification is a historical inevitability. Why can’t people just accept it?
[quote=“fanglangzhe”][quote=“reztrop”]Is this a topic even worth debating when we already know the answer? Won’t happen. Realpolitik and power dynamics will triumph.
The PRC is willing to go all-out against the US over Taiwan if war ever breaks out. The same cannot be said of the US.
The Chinese mindset toward the US regarding Taiwan: You intervene in our family business that is closest to our heart, we will fight you all the way including nuclear war. And we’re willing to take the damage until our goals are met.
Reminds me of the North Vietnamese minister Pham Van Dong, who told the US during the Vietnam War, “How long are you willing to fight us over South Vietnam? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? 200 years? We will be more than happy to accompany you.”
Sun Tzu said lose the tactical battles, win the strategic victory at the end.[/quote]
Indeed. Some form of unification is a historical inevitability. Why can’t people just accept it?[/quote]
wishful thinking. YOU want unification, so it’s inevitable.
At least you didn’t say reunification. Taiwan was never part of China. Taiwan was as much China as Okinawa was, or Poland.
Communist China is a bully.
Why not let Taiwan decide their fate like Quebec was able to during their last referendum in Canada?
[quote=“urodacus”]
wishful thinking. YOU want unification, so it’s inevitable.
At least you didn’t say reunification. Taiwan was never part of China. Taiwan was as much China as Okinawa was, or Poland.[/quote]
No, the notion of de jure independence is even more wishful thinking than unification. As many of the comments have already noted. I assume you are in favor of de jure independence but the chances of that are much lower than unification, for better or worse. And, yes, China is a bully. Not that there’s much anyone can do about that, not even USA.
[quote=“Mango”]Communist China is a bully.
Why not let Taiwan decide their fate like Quebec was able to during their last referendum in Canada?[/quote]
The Chinese will be bullies just because they can , not because they are communist.
But your point is very valid and so often ignored. The expectations of real democracy don’t extend beyond a few countries.
[quote=“Mango”]Communist China is a bully.
Why not let Taiwan decide their fate like Quebec was able to during their last referendum in Canada?[/quote]
I’ll come across as Hamiltonian here instead of Jacksonian, but never underestimate the stupidity/ignorance of people in elections or referendums.
My opinion of the DPP is similar to my opinion of the BQ (full of tribal little people that have very little knowledge of economics and who couldn’t run a peanut stand ).
Quebec, considering how much power it has relative to its population within Confederation and how it is subsidized big time by the wealthier provinces, would be absolutely crazy to leave Canada. It has it so good when it comes to the largesse it receives from the Feds, to the representation it gets in parliament and the civil service, and to the economic subsidies it receives in equalization payments or other goodies. It would be crazy to give all this away to become a third-world entity. They would be crazy to leave.
Similarly, Taiwan, which already in practical terms is independent, would be absolutely crazy to risk its economic standing by provoking Beijing with the pipe dream of independence.
Fuck the dreamers on this one! 
Do I support the right to a referendum? Sure. Do I think they’d do the smart thing? Probably not (although I think the Quebecers now realize the economic implications of going it alone).
[quote=“Mango”]Communist China is a bully.
Why not let Taiwan decide their fate like Quebec was able to during their last referendum in Canada?[/quote]
China is a bully - you won’t get much argument on that point in this forum.
As for a referendum - remember that the title of this thread is “Taiwan Independence - REALISTICALLY, How?” Note the emphasis on realism.
Taiwan can have the referendum on independence, and if independence wins, we can have a quick war with China, where Taiwan capitulates and then becomes a fully integrated province of China like Fujian. Is that what you’d like to see? Even Hong Kong got a better deal than that.
The trouble with Taiwan trying to really be an independent nation is that it doesn’t have any diplomatic ties with any other foreign nations and its economy is so dependent on China that even recognized as its own country, it would be a puppet regime of the PRC anyway. So realisitcally there’s no way this TI thing could ever work, but the DPP just want to throw a hissy because it wants to stay in power.
You don’t follow Taiwanese politics too closely then, I take it?
[quote=“fanglangzhe”] Indeed. Some form of unification is a historical inevitability. Why can’t people just accept it?[/quote] What is your definition of ‘some form of unification’? Can I assume that means that Taiwan must be subservient to Beijing in some way, shape, or form? With the democratic government that Taiwan has today it’s not like Beijing can just install a puppet into power. I suppose the KMT could try to redefine Taiwan’s boundaries as some kind of ‘area’ of China as they are trying to do now and relations could be normalized a lot more. But to think that the constitution will be modified such that the government of Taiwan must somehow report to Beijing is stretching it.
Ever been to the mainland? Most people don’t care, especially the younger generation. This is an issue for the government not the people.
Ever been to the mainland? Most people don’t care, especially the younger generation. This is an issue for the government not the people.[/quote]
Yes, I’ve been to Mainland more than 20 times over the last 20 years and almost everyone I meet who spoke about the subject insist Taiwan is part of China. These people ranged in age from 20s to 60s and almost none of them worked in government. I suppose the people you’ve met are just different from the ones I have.