[quote=“BAH”]Going back to the original topic a bit –
If China and Japan somehow start a war over the islands, does this create an opening for Taiwan to declare independence? What would be the circumstances required? (e.g., US drawn in, fleet presence near Taiwan).
I think my previous point, that first Taiwan needs internal consensus, still holds. But let’s just say we have that.[/quote]
It always baffles me that in 99.9% of the TI discussions, the two most pragmatic and the most core aspect of TI are rarely brought up:
- The current practice of state recognition under international law and in international politics
What are the requirements for de jure independence as currently practiced under international law? To be recognized as a sovereign state de jure, under the current practice of international law, there needs to be constitutive recognition; in other words, being recognized by other countries. And for those familiar with the games of international politics, “other countries” means “the big powers.” In Taiwan’s case, there won’t be any constitutive recognition; even when an internal consensus is reached, at best the sovereignty is only declarative.
Think about how Israel became a state and who were the first UN member states to recognize Israel as a state.
- UN General Assembly Resolution 2758, and its intricacies and implications.
Forget Treaty of San Francisco. Resolution 2758 is the document that TI supporters need to battle with. UN membership is the epitome of the constitutive recognition of statehood.
Any talk about independence is pipe dreams and 嘴砲, unless the TI supporters can come up with a solid, practical and executable plan for Taiwan to: A) achieve constitutive recognition (basically, all Taiwan needs for this part is recognition from the five UN permanent members except PRC, plus members of the G8 that aren’t UN permanent members, and some other politically/economically important countries, then she is pretty much all set); and B) repeal Resolution 2758. Good luck on this, really.
There are much more challenging domestic issues threatening Taiwan’s survival and well-being as a country. The country cannot 攘外, before it can 安內 (achieve internal security).
And no, PRC mainland won’t be bombing and invading Taiwan and its territories. What’s the use of Taiwan to PRC as a war wreckage? (well maybe access to more blue water ocean) Unless of course, if the Ma administration decides to go forward with the unsafe Nuclear Plant 4 building plan, and if anything like Fukushima happens (God forbid!), then maybe Beijing will give up Taiwan voluntarily.