Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?


#141

I think you’re forgetting the fact that the KMT always had a strong foothold in the legislative yuan, and China has been straight forward to what response they would have if Taiwan was to claim itself as independent.

The only reason people are against independence has nothing to do with how much they want to return to the “motherland” (unless you’re a hardcore KMTer), but more to do with China’s military threat against the island. Taiwan has already enjoyed de facto independence and has shown its capable of having empirical sovereignty, and the only obstacle towards Taiwanese independence have been from PR China.


#142

Wait a second you are telling me what happened, did you even live here over the last 13 years? I’m well aware of all of this, it doesn’t change anything. It doesn’t matter what the reasons are.


#143

This has been an interesting discussion over the last 13 months but i don’t think anyone of us can offer a realistic answer/solution to the original question, key word being “realistic”. Other then lets wait for the collapse of CCP and then see what happens after that.


#144

Yeah. I think it is in Taiwan’s national (er, as it were) interest to hold onto the status quo until there is some form of democracy in China. But very few Taiwanese I know have any interest in the political agitations over on the mainland. I find this weird, as Taiwan’s future will ultimately be framed by the Chinese government.


#145

The status quo as listed in the ROC constitution is that Taiwan is a part of the ROC and the mainland is a part of the ROC, a viewpoint which lies in stark contrast to the realities of the world. Since the status quo accepts this constitution, and the constitution repeatedly refers to the eventual reunification of the ROC, it is fair to assume that the “status quo” is working toward eventual reunification, albeit at a snail’s pace. If anyone disagrees with that, they haven’t put enough thought into what’s going through the heads of the KMT bigwigs. So the options are eventual reunification or whatever amusing fantasy the faction in control of the DPP this week is trying to sell. I think it’s time for everyone to get a reality check.


#146

Here’s an idea - from an ROC perspective, the biggest obstacle to unification with China lies within legitimate KMT political representation on the mainland.


#147

That’s true. The biggest obstacle to most things in Taiwan, sadly, is the KMT. A little-known fact is that Chinese Taipei was decided on by KMT leadership, NOT by Beijing, and now Taiwan is stuck with it.

I think the key to achieving independence (if we’re assuming that’s even what we want here) is patience. Tell your children that Taiwan is a country and they’ll believe it and tell other people, too. Eventually the de facto truth will take hold in everyone’s minds and people will forget about the complex twists and turns and cloaks and daggers and ask outright, “Wait, why isn’t it independent?”

If we want Taiwan to reunify with China, it’s also patience. Wait for some measure political reform to happen in Beijing, and Taiwanese people probably won’t be too opposed to rejoining the motherland if their continued freedom in everyday life is guaranteed.


#148

Now that its near certainty that DPP will win the Presidency and possibly gain a majority in the legislature, it may be timely to bring back this discussion. The question remains, how does Taiwan achieve de jure independence without going to war? Tsai herself said she supports the status quo although she can of course change. But even if a future Taiwan government wants de jure independence, how will it be achieved? Taiwan can go to war, lose, and then become Taiwan SAR. Or we can wait for the collapse of the Communist Party in China. That may take a very long time and even then, its uncertain that a new Mainland government would allow Taiwan independence. Thus, how can TI possibly be achieved within the next few decades? I think it will remain a theoretical discussion for a very long time.


#149

Maybe they could get ahold of the prototype of some kind of super-weapon. That’s what usually happens in the novels.

Okay, Taiwan is obviously stuck until the situation changes. Maybe the USA will get into a war with China. Maybe President Trump will re-station troops here. Or if Taiwan can hold on for another couple of decades, China will be preoccupied with internal problems associated with their aging population structure.


#150

Independence from what? Democracy?

Who would recognize the Republic of Taiwan?


#151

Replace “DPP” with “KMT” given the current situation and the entire comment would still sound realistic. Even if DPP rules for the next 50 years, de jure independence may still not happen, certainly not anytime soon. In fact, if DPP ever leads Taiwan to war with China, unification could be the ironic result.


#152

[quote=“Dirt”]Independence from what? Democracy?

Who would recognize the Republic of Taiwan?[/quote]

Independence from China such that no government of China could claim to rule Taiwan and no government of Taiwan could claim to rule China. I disagree with such an outcome, but the concept doesn’t seem difficult to grasp.

Virtually no one recognizes the ROC. By your logic should the ROC disband then? I hope the ROC doesn’t disband yet, of course, as its existence and insistence on ruling China will be the lever that leads to ultimate unification under the PRC.


#153

[quote=“Zhengzhou2010”][quote=“Dirt”]Independence from what? Democracy?

Who would recognize the Republic of Taiwan?[/quote]

Independence from China such that no government of China could claim to rule Taiwan and no government of Taiwan could claim to rule China. I disagree with such an outcome, but the concept doesn’t seem difficult to grasp.

Virtually no one recognizes the ROC. By your logic should the ROC disband then? I hope the ROC doesn’t disband yet, of course, as its existence and insistence on ruling China will be the lever that leads to ultimate unification under the PRC.[/quote]

Q:Independence from what?
A:Independence from Japan. Legally speaking, there can be no other way, unless you are betting on Japan and the Allied Powers voiding the SFPT, which contains the legal source of Korea’s independence from Japan as well.

Q:Who would recognize the Republic of Taiwan?
A: Independence does not necessarily entail a republic. A republic does not necessarily entail independence.
A republic can be autonomous, or dependent as well. Likewise, an independent country doesn’t need to be a republic. It can be a federation or a territory.

Q: Does ROC claim to rule China?
A: No it doesn’t. You can not find it anywhere in ROC’s articles of incorporation (aka constitution) or self-regulations. Claiming to rule any place is not a basis of this organization. Claiming to rule china is a political belief of certain people, but it is not laws or regulations. Read the text.

Q: Does whether or not anyone recognizes roc has anything to do with recognizing Taiwan?
A: No. Any government can recognize Taiwan regardless of whether they think Taiwan is a sovereign state or not. Recognition of a Government of Taiwan does not depend on recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign state. If you recognize Taiwan as an Autonomous Territory, you can still recognize the government of Taiwan as a legitimate government.


#154

Replace “DPP” with “KMT” given the current situation and the entire comment would still sound realistic. Even if DPP rules for the next 50 years, de jure independence may still not happen, certainly not anytime soon. In fact, if DPP ever leads Taiwan to war with China, unification could be the ironic result.[/quote]

Thank you for reminding me just how spectacularly wrong I was about a DPP resurgence. :slight_smile:

I am also very happy that the public is no longer indifferent. Maybe they never were.


#155

[quote=“Mucha Man”]Thank you for reminding me just how spectacularly wrong I was about a DPP resurgence. :slight_smile:

I am also very happy that the public is no longer indifferent. Maybe they never were.[/quote]

No doubt there are reasons to vote the DPP back in power. But if people are supporting DPP because they think it will deliver de jure indepdence for Taiwan, best of luck.


#156

And CNN spewing the same stupid independence nonsense really grinds my gears… The Mc D of news… ugh.


#157

The scenario you’ve painted in your OP in Feb 2012 is just 2 months away from coming to fruition and many Forumosans will be jumping up and down with joy no doubt. But if you honestly think DPP will bring about de jure independence, best of luck to you! Shall we revisit this in 4 or 8 years time?


#158

[quote=“fanglangzhe”][quote=“Mucha Man”]Thank you for reminding me just how spectacularly wrong I was about a DPP resurgence. :slight_smile:

I am also very happy that the public is no longer indifferent. Maybe they never were.[/quote]

No doubt there are reasons to vote the DPP back in power. But if people are supporting DPP because they think it will deliver de jure indepdence for Taiwan, best of luck.[/quote]

Consider that Tsai’s 48% in the polls are exactly where she ended up in the 2012 presidential election.
The DPP isn’t strong, neither is Tsai a strong candidate; but the KMT is not missing out on any opportunity to look incompetent and weak.


#159

The scenario you’ve painted in your OP in Feb 2012 is just 2 months away from coming to fruition and many Forumosans will be jumping up and down with joy no doubt. But if you honestly think DPP will bring about de jure independence, best of luck to you! Shall we revisit this in 4 or 8 years time?[/quote]

Did you even read the OP? It’s quite clear that his point is that even when the DPP gains executive and legislative control, a path to independence is unclear.


#160

A side note, ISIS simultaneously recognized Taiwan and China :ponder: Kindda sad they are the ones to do it.