Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?


#161

[quote=“hansioux”]
A side note, ISIS simultaneously recognized Taiwan and China :ponder: Kindda sad they are the ones to do it.[/quote]

What to say?
Allah is great.
God works in mysterious ways.
Confucius and Buddah are scratching their heads.

The TV news are reporting it over and over, like, It’s confirmed… Taiwan is a country.


#162

[quote=“Hamletintaiwan”][quote=“hansioux”]
A side note, ISIS simultaneously recognized Taiwan and China :ponder: Kindda sad they are the ones to do it.[/quote]

What to say?
Allah is great.
God works in mysterious ways.
Confucius and Buddah are scratching their heads.

The TV news are reporting it over and over, like, It’s confirmed… Taiwan is a country.[/quote]

Well, that’s just because US government publicly acknowledges Taiwan as one among the many coalition nations against ISIL. Also if you go to CIA fact book there is only Taiwan, no ROC. Since the Snowdenian have it that ISIL is funded by the CIA, I guess ISIL has to go by the book. :roflmao:


#163

This is an Onion article waiting to be written…


#164

[quote=“BAH”]This is an Onion article waiting to be written…

[quote]
… In a surprise move, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) spokesman David Lee announced late yesterday that Taiwan has recognized ISIS. “Obviously we don’t support terrorism, but given the dearth of countries that recognize us these days, we felt we had no choice but to reciprocate.” ISIS becomes the twenty-third nation to recognize Taiwan. Lee continued, “perhaps this can even prove to be a new way that Taiwan can gain international space – ISIS has broken with tradition and recognized both China and Taiwan, and this might signal to others that it’s ok to recognize both.”

President Ma Ying-Jeou has appointed honorary KMT Chairman Lien Chan to be the ROC’s first ambassador to ISIS. Lien will travel to Raqqa over the next few days to take up his post. “I’m excited to represent the ROC as ambassador to ISIS,” Lien said. “It will be a proud moment when the blue sky and white sun flag [青天白日旗] flies in the Middle East for the first time in decades.”

Due to Islamic State’s strict interpretation of Sharia law, Ambassador Lien will be bringing with him a container full of kaoliang. “Even though the ROC embassy won’t be subject to Islamic law, there will be no outlets to procure alcohol, which is why we are bringing so much.”

etc.

[/quote][/quote]

China might object to this.


#165

An interesting article in the Japan Times today

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/06/10/commentary/japan-commentary/u-s-japan-taiwan-grand-bargain-senkakus

The author suggests that Japan and the US should recognize Taiwan if it gives up sovereignty claims on Diaoyutai. A good deal if you ask me.

The major flaw in the analysis is underestimation of the degree of apesh*t that China will go through.


#166

[quote=“BAH”]An interesting article in the Japan Times today

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/06/10/commentary/japan-commentary/u-s-japan-taiwan-grand-bargain-senkakus

The author suggests that Japan and the US should recognize Taiwan if it gives up sovereignty claims on Diaoyutai. A good deal if you ask me.

The major flaw in the analysis is underestimation of the degree of apesh*t that China will go through.
[/quote]

Interesting, yes. But I take this as seriously as I take this video about North Koreans in Hualian…

youtube.com/watch?v=vEPALTQANE8


#167

npr.org/sections/parallels/2 … -treatment

Saw this article about Taiwan aborigines:

[quote]Back at National Taiwan University, entomology major Chen Xi, a member of the Amis tribe, says he expects President Tsai’s party will treat aborigines better than its predecessors have. But ultimately, he says, both major political parties represent Taiwan’s ethnic Han Chinese majority.

“Han people often forget their role as colonizers when they came to this island,” he says. “Their lack of consciousness of this fact makes it even scarier.”

Even as aborigines were dancing onstage at the presidential inauguration, he notes, the official narration described the tribes as “rough and crude.”

“I hope,” he says, “the [new] government will pay attention to the diversity of this land, and not just use indigenous people as a tool for independence.”[/quote]

To them, we’re all Han Chinese colonizers.


#168

[quote=“Dirt”]http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/06/11/480482854/taiwans-aborigines-hope-a-new-president-will-bring-better-treatment

Saw this article about Taiwan aborigines:

[quote]Back at National Taiwan University, entomology major Chen Xi, a member of the Amis tribe, says he expects President Tsai’s party will treat aborigines better than its predecessors have. But ultimately, he says, both major political parties represent Taiwan’s ethnic Han Chinese majority.

“Han people often forget their role as colonizers when they came to this island,” he says. “Their lack of consciousness of this fact makes it even scarier.”

Even as aborigines were dancing onstage at the presidential inauguration, he notes, the official narration described the tribes as “rough and crude.”

“I hope,” he says, “the [new] government will pay attention to the diversity of this land, and not just use indigenous people as a tool for independence.”[/quote]

To them, we’re all Han Chinese colonizers.[/quote]

The DPP and their hoklo-chauvinist supporters follow an ethnic definition of “Taiwanese” that ironically excludes the original inhabitants of this island. This can be easily validated by looking at common nomenclature: 台語 (Taiwanese) does not refer to aboriginal languages but a sinitic dialect imported from China. Furthermore, the DPP and the descendants of the perpetrators of the holocaust of Aboriginal people have taken on the demonym “Taiwanese” to refer to themselves, while the true Taiwanese - the aboriginal people - are stereotyped as good singers at best and drunk lowlifes at worst.

Is the KMT better in safeguarding aboriginal rights? Surely not. To the KMT Aboriginal people are yet another ethnic minority within the Zhonghua Minzu. But unlike the DPP, the Kuomintang is at least honest and does not deny being a party founded on Chinese nationalism.

The DPP on the other hand talks about human rights and transitional justice, yet forgets that the 5,000-10,000 dead between 1947-1987 are nothing compared to the mass murder and cultural genocide perpetrated by Hoklo in the 17th, 18th and 19th Centuries. The DPP pushes for a KMT party assets bill, but how about a “Hoklo coloniser asset bill” that would force Hoklo to give back the land, hunting grounds and natural resources stolen from Aboriginal people. How about evaluating the role of the families of Tsai Ing-wen, Freddy Lim, Lee Teng-hui and other prominent DPP/NPP/TSU-politicans during the Japanese occupation period? Quite a few Hoklo families collaborated with the Japanese in ripping off Aboriginals.

Oh, and dear Western Forumosa members - how did that dual nationality bill work out for you guys under the DPP and New Power Party majority? Just in case anyone still doubts the rampant ethnic chauvinism of the new administration. And wasn’t it that uber-progressive Freddy Lim who raged against allowing more Western professionals into the country because he and his party want to “protect Taiwanese graduates” ? :roflmao:


#169

[quote=“hsinhai78”]
The DPP and their hoklo-chauvinist supporters follow an ethnic definition of “Taiwanese” that ironically excludes the original inhabitants of this island. [/quote]

False. As stated by many DDP leaders, including CSB, the ethnic Taiwanese title is for anyone living here who considers themselves Taiwanese.

[quote=“hsinhai78”]
This can be easily validated by looking at common nomenclature: 台語 (Taiwanese) does not refer to aboriginal languages but a sinitic dialect imported from China. [/quote]

Japanese were the ones that dubbed Taiwanese Holo as Taigi. They did so because it was the lingua franca of the island for a good 200 years. People who really understands Taigi usually calls it the Holo language, however Taigi is still used because thanks to KMT brainwashing, most Taiwanese have no idea what Holo means.

We’ve been over this, but it seems like your mind refuses to pick up facts contrary to how you want to see the world.

[quote=“hsinhai78”]
Is the KMT better? Surely not. To the KMT Aboriginal people are yet another ethnic minority within the Zhonghua Minzu. But unlike the DPP, the Kuomintang is at least honest and does not deny being a party founded on Chinese nationalism. [/quote]

So in your mind the Aboriginals who died in the 228 incident and White Terror period were like “Oh, you are killing us in the name of Chinese nationalism? Go ahead then, at least you are not pretending otherwise.”

[quote=“hsinhai78”]
The DPP on the other hand talks about human rights and transitional justice, yet forgets that the 5,000-10,000 dead between 1947-1987 are nothing compared to the mass murder and cultural genocide perpetrated by Hoklo in the 17th, 18th and 19th Centuries. [/quote]

Koxinga definitely killed many Aboriginals, as did the Dutch and the Qing government. The Hakka and Holo formed local militias but mostly had skirmishes with the Aboriginals, but there is no evidence that the Holo ethnic group specifically committed genocide.

The local Sirayan in Tainan were recruiting ethnic Holo men to marry into their tribes as late as the 19th century. It was not until the mid 19th century did Sirayans began moving away from Tainan. They did so to avoid cultural assimilation, not ethnic genocide.

vivianwu.org.tw/02c.php?ser=12&ser1=9
This news articles for example, shows that the Sirayans who moved east eventual still lost their own identity and language, and now only speak Holo, with many of whom identify themselves as Holo, even go as far as referring other Aboriginals as “Huan (番, Savage)”, a derogatory terms in Holo. The same cultural assimilation also happened to most of the flatland aboriginals who stayed in the west coast, who make up the majority of Taiwanese and ethnic Holo population.

There’s no denying that all Colonizers of Taiwan engaged in cultural genocide. It’s a lesson for all Taiwanese to take charge and revival our own cultures.

[quote=“hsinhai78”]
The DPP pushes for a KMT party assets bill, but how about a “Hoklo coloniser asset bill” that would force Hoklo to give back the land, hunting grounds and natural resources stolen from Aboriginal people.[/quote]

Those are two separate matters, and they should both be addressed. The new legislature will push for a version of Autonomy Act that includes giving each autonomy a separate administration area from the existing ones. My guess is Tsai would want the Autonomy Act to pass before her formal apology to the Aboriginals in August.


#170

With Trump now headed to the White House and given what he’s said about foreign policy, I suppose the road map to de jure independence for Taiwan is as fuzzy as ever.


#171

Do you think it would have been less fuzzy if Hilary won? Ultimately, I am not sure either would have/will do much that is really pro-TI. Caveat that I am not a TI supporter, so I might not have an objective view here.


#172

I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with your point. But one of the core articles of faith for pro TI people is that the USA military will step in to help Taiwan. Under Trump, the chance of that happening seems to be lower than ever. With no US help, I just can’t see how Taiwan would win a war with PRC.


#173

Aside from the TI thing, I also think that Trump’s election victory is a big blow to Tsai’s policy of “reinvigorating” the economy by joining the TPP. Not that I ever thought the TPP would actually do much to help Taiwan’s economy, but that has been the big wet dream of both Tsai and Ma Ying-jeou. Of course, Tsai never signed up for Ma’s “Service Trade Agreement,” another doomed idea that was unlikely to deliver the miraculous benefits that were claimed for it.

Unless Trump is really a big phony (always a possibility), I think it’s fair to say that the TPP is finished. Obama may yet try to push it through in a lame-duck congressional session, but even if that move succeeded, it would be dead-on-arrival once Trump got into office. Plus it needs to be ratified by the other signatories, and that is now more unlikely than ever.

So anyway, the big half-baked plan to delink Taiwan’s economy from China’s by joining the TPP is more likely than ever to be laid to rest. I guess the other strategy to “Go South” is still in play, but I’m also pretty skeptical that it will amount to much. We’ll see.


#174

Good point, thanks for the elaboration. In that vein, I can see that Trump might also be less likely to intervene in a non-TI sparked Chinese attack on Taiwan (where China just gets sick of waiting and figures the US isn’t likely to help Taiwan).


#175

It’s my experience that candidates who talks the most shit about China during the election ends up sucking up to China the most once they are in office. We’ll see if Trump follows that pattern.

If Trump really is friendly towards Russia, it will be unlikely that he takes an hard stance towards China, as Russian and China teaming up to thwart US interests is becoming the norm. In that case, Taiwan has just lost the Philippines to the South, the US to the East and the only sorta ally left in the region is Japan…


#176

You could to that the possibility of closer ties between Japan and Russia. There have been a few steps in that direction and a Putin/Abe summit is supposedly in the works.


#177

Nah, how the Russians took over the Karafuto island from Japan will forever remain a sore spot between Japan and Russia. Russia also doesn’t have the kind of money to buy off Japanese politicians like what China did with Rodrigo Duterte.


#178

Lost the Philippines? When did we ever have the Philippines as an ally?

I don’t think our position is any different. The strongest supporters in the Congress and Senate are usually Republicans (isn’t there like a guy called McCain?), and they put the six promises in their party charter.

Besides on the bright side, if we go down, the whole region goes down with us, it’s not like China would just stop there. At least we wouldn’t be alone lol. Same goes for Europe with the whole fiasco against Russia.


#179

Just went looking, and found articles which seem to confirm that the TPP is doomed:

Analysts: No hope for TPP after Trump win

TPP: Trade pact dead, buried, cremated amid Donald Trump presidency


#180

The Philippines has no love for Taiwan, but when its military was strongly bonded to the US, it served as part of the alliance to block China from getting beyond the island chain without being noticed. Any military assistance to Taiwan, when things do go to hell, can also be staged in the Philippines.

As for support in the senate from the Republicans, did you not hear Trump talking about scrapping mutual defense alliances with South Korea and Japan? How are they going to square with Trump’s conviction?

In any case, the Senate Taiwan Caucus is bi-partisan. Before this election it was made up of 12 Democrats, and 18 Republicans. Considering there are 10 more Republican senators than Democrat ones, proportionally it’s hard to claim Republicans are more friendly towards Taiwan.