It’s nothing to do with likelihood. Look at what happens in the real world instead of the made-up one in your head. Are you actually arguing with the statistic I quoted? Are you saying it’s fake news?
It might be stinky and brown, but at least my theory is the one that accords with experiment. All of the countries with strict gun controls (controls that are actually enforced) have murder rates well below 1/100,000. The US statistic sits within a cluster of failed states and third-world countries.
If that were true, the UK would have 50x as many knife killings as the US, ie., those situations where someone is involved in a knife fight and isn’t allowed to bring a gun. It actually is higher (about 2x) presumably because enthusiastic killers have to be armed with something. Nevertheless, that still translates to fewer people being killed.
Obviously I’m not suggesting that banning guns makes a population nice and peaceable. Filipinos are always hacking each other to death for the amusement value. Taiwanese mafia apparently favour the watermelon knife. That’s a whole different issue. My modest proposal is that, if civilians don’t have guns, then policemen have a lot less to worry about, and are therefore less likely to shoot first and ask questions later. If you think this is just “theory”, perhaps you’d like to advance an alternative one.
As BHL4Life said, that doesn’t seem to be how the world actually works. The whole POINT of the police is that they should have a violent advantage over civilians (bearing in mind that criminals are civilians). If they don’t, they can’t do their job when it all turns to shit.
And quite frankly, having met a lot of “the people”, I don’t want them watching anything more complicated than the TV, because they’ll probably cause mayhem by mistake.
What’s hilarious about this whole argument is that you don’t even realise your supposed “freedom” to protect civilisation against tyrannical government is a carefully-crafted illusion. A smart government knows that as long as it keeps the lapdogs on a long leash and throws them a few bones, they’ll put up with a good kicking now and then.
That’s the point, isn’t it? If everyone else has a gun, people are compelled to arm themselves.
OTOH I spend a lot of time in a country with an official homicide rate roughly 2x higher than the US (in reality it’s probably more like 3-4 times because a lot of murders go unrecorded). I’ve been in a couple of situations that typically end in casual murder.
I could easily acquire a gun if I wanted to and have occasionally considered the option. I have plenty of time for target practice. However, I do not intend to ever shoot anyone. So I don’t want one.