Now Taiwan looks a bit silly for counting on Trump, head wind toward Tsai Ing-wen?
That’s very hard to say. This policy has been part of a parcel that has served Taiwan well for a long time. Such a change would not necessarily work out well for Taiwan and I’m sure that possibility has not been lost on Taiwanese decision makers. After some strange statements by Trump on this issue, I welcome the commitment to stability implied by this development personally.
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Your argument sounds reasonable.
I wonder what the president Trump got from this deal.
Do you know if there are any changes in approval rating of the president Tsai Ing-wen since the start of her office?
[quote=“CacXD, post:3, topic:158195”]
I wonder what the president Trump got from this deal. [/quote]
A lack of unnecessary problems and State Department and other people hounding him, basically, I’d say.
Do you know if there are any changes in approval rating of the president Tsai Ing-wen since the start of her office?
No clue!
He doesn’t seem to mind people hounding him. I think what he’s after is concessions on monetary manipulations.
Taiwan is a bargaining chip. The only way Taiwan can get any control is to take a radical initiative, such as declaring independent nationhood.
Her approval rating has been steadily declining ever since she took office.
Well, to be fair, that happens to basically every politician who gets elected in a democratic country xD
It’s true, there’s only ona China. China is China, Taiwan is Taiwan.
My more “serious” position on this is that China, for as long as the communist party is in charge, will never recognize Taiwan’s indipendence. Part of it is for fear of losing face (political suicide of whoever makes that decision), and part of it to avoid other “provinces”* to make the same demand.
The current situation has Taiwan being the only real democracy in Asia, with no direct political influence from China and complete economical/political/social indipendence.
I know that Taiwanese would prefer to receive formal indipendence status, but che current situation from a practical point of view is not bad.
- = China considers Taiwan to be sort of a province, which is nonsense but there’s no better term to use in this kind of discussion
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Has Trump stated that Beijing is the capital?
Republican Nixon said he believed in the One-China Policy without specifying which capital and left if for Taipei and Beijing to work it out. Dopey Democrat Carter, however, recognized Beijing. One-China Policy alone doesn’t specify which government is legitimate.
The Kuomingtang doesn’t believe the One-China Policy, as Trump says he agrees on, but rather the One-China Principle, which means Taiwan is part of a country called China. The Democrat Progressive Party doesn’t believe One-China Policy or Principle, but rather believes in two separate countries.
When did they start saying “sort of”?
The proposal is to turn it into an SAR, but afaik the official materials describing the current situation always say “province”, even if the “seat of people’s government” (i.e. provincial capital) field is left blank.
The Donald will use Taiwan independence as a stick to threaten Beijing with if the ChiComs get too uppity.
If this doesn’t work, his pattern is to escalate. Taiwan nationhood with US support could happen in the next few years under certain scenarios, but Taipei has no power to influence whether that opportunity comes. They can only stand ready to seize the opportunity when it comes.
He tried to flash that stick, but he just had it shoved back at him and it seems pretty well buried now. He seems pretty meek about the whole situation at present.
Indeed there’s not a lot Taiwan can so. It’s easy to say they should try to “get control” but their options for doing so are extremely limited and present poor prospects for success.
I wouldn’t think too much about patterns or what he hasn’t seemed to mind until now. It’s a whole new ballgame, a high-pressure situation with no easy decisions, and he won’t be able to bully and bluster his way through it.
I think it’s possible Trump is quickly discovering that there are many things he can’t do- he’s not a dictator. I think it’s also possible he’s discovering the situation is much worse when it comes to international diplomacy. Look at his very toned-down remarks after the North Korean missile test (something about the US supporting Japan). If I were one of his advisers, I would tell him to focus on the domestic economy. This is something he understands (unlike the situation outside of US borders), and is an area he can probably be the most effective.
Trump threw China off balance because it now looks like the US One-China policy is a matter of “favour” extended to China and is up to the United States. Which is true anyway, but now it’s being made public. It’s something that US can agree or disagree to, something that is always up for review and renewal, and China has to request it on a regular basis. Basically it is exactly what Trump said in the TV interview.
That is hardly toned-down. North Korea hates bringing in Japan, even more so than bringing in China. Bush negotiated with North Korea via six other nations, when North Korea only wanted to negotiate face to face with the USA. It was a smart move, because Japan and others have many more grievances with this arrogant nation than just nuclear issues. And being in closer proximity, more vehement about the nuclear issues and testing over their countries, etc. They are much more a thorn in NKorea’s side than the USA.
When the news broke, I think most would have expected something much more from Trump. Remember, this was not long after Trump put Iran “on notice” after their missile test, and that was followed by a conspicuous silence and no action (he didn’t follow through on his strong words). And remember also that Trump tweeted about how North Korean missile capability improving so that America could be hit was that “it won’t happen.” At the end of the day, there’s not a damn thing Trump can do about North Korea. And the North Koreans are well aware of this. All talk. All I hear is bullshit coming from our president, sadly.
I think you’re right regarding how Japan is a bigger thorn in N. Korea’s side than the US is. But you sure wouldn’t know hearing how they talk: “American fuckers” this and “American fuckers” that. I can understand Korean okay, and it doesn’t sound good. The lights go out because of power shortages and North Koreans blame the “American fuckers.” No kidding.
I think this is a really good point. I wish it were all planned, but I have my doubts.
I don’t think so. Maybe it looks like something we can put up for review and renewal for about five minutes before we get cold-shouldered and have to go crawling back for cover. In all likelihood it was just a big fuckup which accomplished nothing except making us look like jackasses. Maybe even we had to pay a price, who knows?
I’ve always told my Taiwanese friends, how can you expect the nations to recognize Taiwan if Taiwan is afraid to recognize Taiwan. In the light of this, I think the fact that One-China is in the cards is being very magnanimous to a nation that rarely sticks up for itself for fear of trouble/war/China.
And how do you think the rest of the world would react if Taiwan decided to “stick up for itself” (how exactly is it supposed to do that anyway? meet them on the playground after school?) They wouldn’t do anything. When Taiwan has taken even minor steps in that direction in the past, the only nation who might care at all gets all snippy. It’s like telling a little kid he’s a coward for not sticking up to the biggest guy on a block with a gun, when no one cares about him and truth be told would probably rather see him dead, and his only “friend” is telling him to shut up and stay locked in his living room. That makes no sense. I guess China is magnanimous by not stomping on us under your formulation, while Taiwan is simply a prisoner of its “fear”. It’s a brave new world.