TWD going DOWN


#21

The point is that you’re a doomsdayer? Where are the signs that the TWD is headed to a big plunge relative to the USD? We’re talking about a 5% move currently and it has held up better than many of the world’s major currencies.[/quote]

Very steady devaluation almost daily, it looks like the central bank has a target and they are working their way towards that target but not talking about to avoid currency speculation.


#22

The point is that you’re a doomsdayer? Where are the signs that the TWD is headed to a big plunge relative to the USD? We’re talking about a 5% move currently and it has held up better than many of the world’s major currencies.[/quote]

Very steady devaluation almost daily, it looks like the central bank has a target and they are working their way towards that target but not talking about to avoid currency speculation.[/quote]

The currency exchange pair NT$/US$ is traded heavily. If the central bank wanted to devaluate that, they would need to bring some very heavy guns into into play. Moreover, it would not remain a secret for long. Doing it on the sly and then claiming not to do it on a recurrent basis is a career breaker and possibly worse for any central bank employee.

If you wish to know what’s happening, I strongly suggest that you open a newspaper and see what’s happening with Russia. Money flees to safety in time such as those, and safety comes with a green back.


#23

A weaker NTD is likely a good thing for Taiwan, but for individuals, yes it would be prudent to not continue to underestimate the strength of the US economy. This is something that I’ve found nearly impossible to get through to people, as they seem to just have too many biases to have seen it happening. But the writing has been on the wall for several years now. The US recovery was real and likely isn’t quite finished yet. The USD has been and continues to be the cleanest dirty shirt in the closet. I expect the US to strengthen a bit further before the next recession hits. When it does, things will tumble back down to reality and the whole process will start over. Rinse repeat, as this time is not different.


#24

There is nothing clean about the economic data coming out of the US, there is no recovery is it fighting to stay afloat. A major data point to consider is, by this stage of the cycle what is supposed to happen after a recession is high growth. This is simply not happening.


#25

The point is that you’re a doomsdayer? Where are the signs that the TWD is headed to a big plunge relative to the USD? We’re talking about a 5% move currently and it has held up better than many of the world’s major currencies.[/quote]

Very steady devaluation almost daily, it looks like the central bank has a target and they are working their way towards that target but not talking about to avoid currency speculation.[/quote]

The currency exchange pair NT$/US$ is traded heavily. If the central bank wanted to devaluate that, they would need to bring some very heavy guns into into play. Moreover, it would not remain a secret for long. Doing it on the sly and then claiming not to do it on a recurrent basis is a career breaker and possibly worse for any central bank employee.

If you wish to know what’s happening, I strongly suggest that you open a newspaper and see what’s happening with Russia. Money flees to safety in time such as those, and safety comes with a green back.[/quote]

But the central bank would not telegraph the move ahead of time otherwise speculators will just leverage against it right? It’s my impression they usually leave things very ambiguous.
Of course I agree outside factors could be just as important.


#26

Actually the US has picked up a lot d employment, but the pay is lagging. The world is changing due to technological progress, that’s the difference.


#27

The point is that you’re a doomsdayer? Where are the signs that the TWD is headed to a big plunge relative to the USD? We’re talking about a 5% move currently and it has held up better than many of the world’s major currencies.[/quote]

Very steady devaluation almost daily, it looks like the central bank has a target and they are working their way towards that target but not talking about to avoid currency speculation.[/quote]

The currency exchange pair NT$/US$ is traded heavily. If the central bank wanted to devaluate that, they would need to bring some very heavy guns into into play. Moreover, it would not remain a secret for long. Doing it on the sly and then claiming not to do it on a recurrent basis is a career breaker and possibly worse for any central bank employee.

If you wish to know what’s happening, I strongly suggest that you open a newspaper and see what’s happening with Russia. Money flees to safety in time such as those, and safety comes with a green back.[/quote]

But the central bank would telegraph the move ahead of time otherwise speculators will just leverage against it right? It’s my impression they usually leaves things very ambiguous.
Of course I agree outside factors could be just as important.[/quote]

If a simple player wants to influence that particular currency pair, then you would need very deep pockets. The amount of USD the central bank would have ot buy would be very huge, and they would only be able to keep it up shortly. If in order to achieve a 5% devaluation, then not worth it.

Central banks try to scare the market into moving things its way, you do not achieve that by pissing your reserves away on incremental changes in the exchange rate.


#28

Actually the US has picked up a lot d employment, but the pay is lagging. The world is changing due to technological progress, that’s the difference.[/quote]

No it isn’t.

It’s normal at this stage in the economic cycle, we saw the last after the post golf-crisis recession and even the after the dot com bust.


#29

It’s more about a flight to the dollar than anything else.

Amazing - look at the yields on US Treasuries. Wasn’t the market for those things supposed to have collapsed by now?? Oh, sorry, I forgot the :cactus:


#30

[quote=“Elegua”]It’s more about a flight to the dollar than anything else.

Amazing - look at the yields on US Treasuries. Wasn’t the market for those things supposed to have collapsed by now??..:[/quote]

It’s all a setup by the invisible bond vigilantes. Lull us into the safe harbor of the greenback and then pounce, replacing the world’s preferred currency with a RMB-Ruble-Ringgit-Yen-Gold-Bar backed by Ron Paul’s personal private promissory promise.


#31

Actually the US has picked up a lot d employment, but the pay is lagging. The world is changing due to technological progress, that’s the difference.[/quote]

No it isn’t.

It’s normal at this stage in the economic cycle, we saw the last after the post golf-crisis recession and even the after the dot com bust.[/quote]
I’ve read that after each recession the US takes longer to recover employment numbers than before, that must be structural. There are big changes in employment at present and its accelerating, manufacturing can’t provide the number of jobs it once did due to automation and even white collar people are not getting the relatively high paid jobs they once would have as many routine tasks become automated. Seemingly there are many jobs being created but more part-time,
minimum wage, service type roles.


#32

Actually the US has picked up a lot d employment, but the pay is lagging. The world is changing due to technological progress, that’s the difference.[/quote]

No it isn’t.

It’s normal at this stage in the economic cycle, we saw the last after the post golf-crisis recession and even the after the dot com bust.[/quote]

Growth mostly means gdp numbers not making crappy part time jobs.

By this time gdp should be through the roof getting ready for another recession. Instead the US and actually the whole world are just barely trying to keep afloat. First time its been this way, extremely scary.


#33

If automation makes reduces the need for employees, does that not mean manufacturing and delivery of services is becoming more profitable?
Why do the common people not benefit from the increased profitability?

This is what is happening in Japan: automation and moving manufacturing to other countries reduces the need for people, unemployment figures are up, wages don’t keep up with inflation (recently triggered via unleashing a flood of Yen - see “Abenomics”), banks are sitting on cheap money, people reduce consumption, the economy contracts, Abe and his ilk get re-elected to a 2/3 majority of seats with more votes than before (but still less than 50%)

:roflmao:


#34

Capital , as in Capital C, is now in the ascendant. Inequality is rising worldwide . Thats not so bad in a place like China where so many were so poor but its a bit sad to see in places like the US and UK, which used to have a strong working and middle class. We will see a lot more pushing for a ‘minimum living income’ as the nature of work changes.
what will the pen pushers, cashiers, drivers, delivery men and factory operatives do? Are they all going to become yoga instructors? Even baristas are being automated out of a job. Perhaps many will
simply do nothing.
Money is concentrating in the capital and the people with skills to operate in the new economy,
everyone else will be making 10 bucks an hour or surviving on handouts and odd jobs.


#35

It’s not so much the TWD going down, as others have pointed out, the USD is going up. The TWD is not going anywhere.


#36

Actually the US has picked up a lot d employment, but the pay is lagging. The world is changing due to technological progress, that’s the difference.[/quote]

No it isn’t.

It’s normal at this stage in the economic cycle, we saw the last after the post golf-crisis recession and even the after the dot com bust.[/quote]

Growth mostly means gdp numbers not making crappy part time jobs.

By this time gdp should be through the roof getting ready for another recession. Instead the US and actually the whole world are just barely trying to keep afloat. First time its been this way, extremely scary.[/quote]

You don’t seem to have much grasp of economic history, where we were in 2008, or where we are right now. To put it simply, yes we have seen this before, things were not “normal” in 2008, and this recovery in the US is very real backed by every single data point we have. It was understandable maybe 3 or 4 years ago when people were doubting the recovery, but at this point? :astonished:


#37

1 U.S. dollar / Taiwan dollar =
31.5288331

is this a big jump?


#38

No, at this stage of recovery gdp should be in the 4%+ range for multiple years. It’s nowhere near that even with the readjustments they’ve made to help them. Also I don’t have a clue what economic data you are referring to. Except for job growth which is impressive figure-wise but quite bad in reality ie. many young people are utterly fucked with debt and can only find part-time work, the majority of the other data is not only below expectation but sometimes shocking in its recession eg. shopping data for november which the lowest since i can’t remember exactly 2001 or something. You might shit yourself when xmas sales data comes out, let’s keep an eye on it shall we?


#39

According to you. I doubt there are many people besides you who expect GDP to be above 4% for multiple years just 6 years removed from one of the largest financial crisis in 100 years. If you expected that, I’d say to you, you might want to tone down your wild expectations and come back to reality. Despite how good the US recovery has been compared to most other countries in the world, it’s still not at all reasonable to expect 4%+ growth.


#40

This was a very severe recession, the most severe since the Great Depression. As such it may not have been surprising if the US in particular experienced strong bounce back growth for a few years on e recovery took hold, However the recovery for this recession was markedly longer than others and has still left a lot of people poorer off for the experience, permananently damaging their income and earning potential.