TWD going DOWN


#41

According to you. I doubt there are many people besides you who expect GDP to be above 4% for multiple years just 6 years removed from one of the largest financial crisis in 100 years.[/quote]

Not according to me, according to the historical data and what is common knowledge in economics. Recoveries in the primary years after a recession are all 3.5%-4%+ MINIMUM. Look at the readjustment for last quarter, its up to 5% gdp for the quarter. That should be the norm, and for the first time in 100 yrs it is not.

Its outright terrifying. Record stock prices and yet never has the general population been this poor for it


#42

[quote=“triceratopses”]

Not according to me, according to the historical data and what is common knowledge in economics. Recoveries in the primary years after a recession are all 3.5%-4%+ MINIMUM. Look at the readjustment for last quarter, its up to 5% gdp for the quarter. That should be the norm…[/quote]

Not for recessions caused by severe financial crisis. That is also common knowledge.


#43

[quote=“Mucha Man”][quote=“triceratopses”]

Not according to me, according to the historical data and what is common knowledge in economics. Recoveries in the primary years after a recession are all 3.5%-4%+ MINIMUM. Look at the readjustment for last quarter, its up to 5% gdp for the quarter. That should be the norm…[/quote]

Not for recessions caused by severe financial crisis. That is also common knowledge.[/quote]

Don’t have a clue what you’re talking about. After the great depression you had like 7%+ annual gdp growth on average for a decade. Every crash for the past 40 years has been a matter of manually inflating asset bubbles followed by severe financial crises. And every time the primary years are followed by wild gdp growth as i’ve said. Are you talking about something else?


#44

Down to a record low 31.8 today. The trend may accelerate in the short-term due to US economic growth, lots of overseas investors may continue to pile into US stocks and property and bonds and the interest rates should go up in 2015.


#45

[quote=“triceratopses”][quote=“Muzha Man”][quote=“triceratopses”]

Not according to me, according to the historical data and what is common knowledge in economics. Recoveries in the primary years after a recession are all 3.5%-4%+ MINIMUM. Look at the readjustment for last quarter, its up to 5% gdp for the quarter. That should be the norm…[/quote]

Not for recessions caused by severe financial crisis. That is also common knowledge.[/quote]

Don’t have a clue what you’re talking about. After the great depression you had like 7%+ annual gdp growth on average for a decade. Every crash for the past 40 years has been a matter of manually inflating asset bubbles followed by severe financial crises. And every time the primary years are followed by wild gdp growth as I’ve said. Are you talking about something else?[/quote]

I thought that most recessions since world war 2 was caused by inventory restocking cycles? With some external chocks added in for good measure at times?

The Great Recession is the odd man out - a recession caused by a financial crash, we have not had this since 1929? Or was that 1907?

And anyways, you can only explain a recession by looking at the very factors causing that, not by looking at the factors causing the previous one.


#46

[quote=“Mr He”]I thought that most recessions since world war 2 was caused by inventory restocking cycles? With some external chocks added in for good measure at times?

The Great Recession is the odd man out - a recession caused by a financial crash, we have not had this since 1929? Or was that 1907?

And anyways, you can only explain a recession by looking at the very factors causing that, not by looking at the factors causing the previous one.[/quote]

Can’t agree with that. Once DIDMCA was repealed in 1980 this let speculation run loose which inflated asset bubbles leading to the savings & loan crisis of the 80s. Then dot com bubble then the latest housing bubble.

Name 1 piece of economic growth, thanks. You might say employment, I’ll counter with inventory, new housing establishments, sales, etcetc.

Meanwhile even mcdonalds are whining that their profits are falling and failing to meet expectations.

I WISH I could say that things are looking fine, that the US dollar will stay high and that they will raise interest rates. Then people who save money will actually stop being financially raped every day, awesome. Normal people could actually work hard and save without getting into bs speculation hs (horseshit). I just don’t see it, what I see is a struggle to stay afloat :cry:


#47

Talking about depressions, recovery, and all that: there are some interesting books by Adam Tooze, and here is a related article:

theatlantic.com/internationa … _page=true

The Deluge: The Great War, America and the Remaking of the Global Order, 1916-1931 (published November 13, 2014)
The Wages of Destruction: The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy (published February 26, 2008)


#48

Gone to 1 USD to 32 NTD today.


#49

[quote=“triceratopses”][quote=“Muzha Man”][quote=“triceratopses”]

Not according to me, according to the historical data and what is common knowledge in economics. Recoveries in the primary years after a recession are all 3.5%-4%+ MINIMUM. Look at the readjustment for last quarter, its up to 5% gdp for the quarter. That should be the norm…[/quote]

Not for recessions caused by severe financial crisis. That is also common knowledge.[/quote]

Don’t have a clue what you’re talking about. [/quote]

Then you’ve not paid much attention. You could start with Reinhart and Rogoff’'s This Time is Different: Eight centuries of financial follies.

You don’t have to agree with this but you should be aware this is how a lot of the world’s economist and economic agencies see the Great Recession and not just me personally.

nybooks.com/articles/archive … ng-crisis/
www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/20 … ial-crises


#50

I think 538.com presents a good analysis of the recovery. There are positive signs but it’s not nearly as rosy as Brent says.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/201 … -recovery/


#51

I mean, can you cite an example of a similarly slow recovery? As I said, similar types of recoveries in the past have all been 5%+ growth, whereas this one, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MODERN HISTORY, has much lower figures

I just don’t have a clue. I look at 2 numbers, one from the past and one from now. The numbers from the past were much bigger. It’s not complicated


#52

Yeah, the NT$ would have to go down when I finally get my money…


#53

I mean, can you cite an example of a similarly slow recovery? As I said, similar types of recoveries in the past have all been 5%+ growth, whereas this one, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MODERN HISTORY, has much lower figures[/quote]

Sweden post 1991.

[quote]You don’t have to agree with this but you should be aware this is how a lot of the world’s economist and economic agencies see the Great Recession and not just me pe
I just don’t have a clue. I look at 2 numbers, one from the past and one from now. The numbers from the past were much bigger. It’s not complicated[/quote]

No what you are doing is not complicated.


#54

I see, I was talking specifically about the US. The superpower is not recovering as it always has in the past, was my point


#55

I see, I was talking specifically about the US. The superpower is not recovering as it always has in the past, was my point[/quote]

As predicted by economists who study recessions caused by financial crises. Also how did you expect a fast recovery when the rest of the world was in a deep recession as well? Does context mean nothing to you?


#56

That could be so… the question then becomes ‘and when has that ever happened before?’

In any case with the severity and pace of the whole thing are we seriously expected to believe that a rise in interest rates is what is in store for the future, rather than more QE?


#57

There has been a recent spike upward in the last week or so. It was hovering around 32:1 and is now around 31.5:1 Anything going on causing this in particular? Can we expect it to get better or worse from here? Either way, I’ve got to send some money home this week, hopefully it continues to improve.


#58

Switzerland and oil and Russia and this:
but I’m not paying close enough attention to what is happening to know for sure what specifically


#59

if I remember correctly Taiwanese companies remit money back to Taiwan prior to end of year for bonuses and what-not, so that might be the reason. But I don’t know.


#60

Do you mean the end of the Lunar Year?