TWD going DOWN


#61

Why are people continuing to focus on the TWD being weak? It’s actually doing very well to most major currencies. The issue here is that the USD is really, really strong.

vs Australia
xe.com/currencycharts/?from= … WD&view=1Y

vs the EU
xe.com/currencycharts/?from= … WD&view=1Y

vs the Pound
xe.com/currencycharts/?from= … WD&view=1Y

vs the CAD
xe.com/currencycharts/?from= … WD&view=1Y

vs the Yen
xe.com/currencycharts/?from= … WD&view=1Y

vs the Ruble (sorry Russians)
xe.com/currencycharts/?from= … WD&view=1Y

vs Brazilian Real
xe.com/currencycharts/?from= … WD&view=1Y

vs the Won (up and down = about even)
xe.com/currencycharts/?from= … WD&view=1Y

In comparison to nearly every other currency (except the Chinese Yuan and the USD) the TWD has been strong. It sucks for anyone that is sending their TWD home to the US but the TWD is doing very well by almost all measures.


#62

Do you mean the end of the Lunar Year?[/quote]

Yes that’s what I mean.

The euro is now cratering so yes, TWD is certainly one of the stronger currencies around so far. I’d still be worried that it will eventually be weakened considerably to compete but perhaps the economy here is doing well enough which is lending support to the TWD. Comparing my TWD earnings to potential Euro earnings, with wage cuts in my home country, and devaluation of Euro along with increaseed taxes, it’s made about 40% difference just over the last few years! I always knew the Euro was overvalued though, given the heavy debt burdens, low economic growth and output etc. I recently switched half my Euro savings into USD to hedge and opened a USD account in Taiwan to easily save USD here (probably put half my cash in USD at least).

The US is set up to do very well over the next few years, higher educated people in demand are going to really mint it over there with a tighter labour market and USD strength.

The only real danger I think for Taiwan is getting caught up with a Chinese financial crisis or slowdown
focustaiwan.tw/news/awps/201501190006.aspx


#63

[quote=“headhonchoII”] I recently switched half my Euro savings into USD to hedge and opened a USD account in Taiwan to easily save USD here (probably put half my cash in USD at least).

The US is set up to do very well over the next few years, higher educated people in demand are going to really mint it over there with a tighter labour market and USD strength.[/quote]

You’re very brave! I would have put it in gold when it was in the 1100s. I sold off all my USD in this latest rally (for TWD)… asia is the future.


#64

I suggest sending some money to the US if you need to now. It keeps going down. Did it this afternoon. Got 31.32. Now seeing that it’s around 31.1…dammit. If I only waited another day, oh well…Still a lot better than 32.


#65

Eh it’s going up again. Are you being sarcastic :slight_smile:.
Seeks like I wouldn’t make a good currency trader.
Probably time to put some money in Euros now its devalued so much and the bad news is out there :slight_smile:.


#66

[quote=“headhonchoII”]Eh it’s going up again. Are you being sarcastic :slight_smile:.
Seeks like I wouldn’t make a good currency trader.
Probably time to put some money in Euros now its devalued so much and the bad news is out there :slight_smile:.[/quote]

The bad news might be out there but these things have momentum. Stuff keeps going down (or up like gold did) for a long time and then it flattens out and reverses for awhile.


#67

We’ll see how great the USD is doing a year or 2 from now when the FED is still backtracking on raising the interest rate :laughing:


#68

Just hurry up and fall below 31 you pile of crap.


#69

I send money to Taiwan, I want the US dollar to remain strong so that it gets more NTD from each buck !!


#70

Ironically, after my last post I stumbled upon news that Morgan Stanley just pushed ahead their forecast of the FED raising rates to March 2016. It’s called a liquidity trap. Only fear or greed would cause one to dump their TWDs at this point.


#71

Ok, let’s see. :slight_smile: Keep holding on to those TWD.

But wait, weren’t we already supposed to be facing hyperinflation and a crashed bond market? What happened? :laughing:


#72

Yeah where are the goldbugs that used to infest this board?
Have they slunk to a pacific island with their treasure chest?


#73

@ Elegua: Not sure who was talking about hyperinflation :ponder:

@ HH: I’m sure the gold bugs are all licking their wounds now that gold has crashed in response to the rise of the USD, just as predicted by the experts. I guess USD bugs are the new gold bugs


#74

[quote=“buzzkill1”]@ Elegua: Not sure who was talking about hyperinflation :ponder:

@ HH: I’m sure the gold bugs are all licking their wounds now that gold has crashed in response to the rise of the USD, just as predicted by the experts. I guess USD bugs are the new gold bugs[/quote]

Sorry, I incorrectly had you in the QE = hyperinflation, bond market failure doomsday bucket. I should have had you in the goldbug, half understands monetary policy bucket.

“Nothing beats inflation like cash flow” Ah, the irony… :laughing:


#75

[quote=“Elegua”][quote=“buzzkill1”]@ Elegua: Not sure who was talking about hyperinflation :ponder:

@ HH: I’m sure the gold bugs are all licking their wounds now that gold has crashed in response to the rise of the USD, just as predicted by the experts. I guess USD bugs are the new gold bugs[/quote]

Sorry, I incorrectly had you in the QE = hyperinflation, bond market failure doomsday bucket. I should have had you in the goldbug, half understands monetary policy bucket.

“Nothing beats inflation like cash flow” Ah, the irony… :laughing:[/quote]

Maybe you should have ended it after , “Sorry, I incorrectly had you” , :laughing:

All you got is mud slinging?

Perhaps you could enlighten us, or maybe just post some more quotes that are off-topic, irrelevant, and fail to make a point :unamused:


#76

Wow, USD is really surging. I don’t think the TWD is doing that much worse. Went from below 31.1 to over 31.4 in just a couple days.


#77

US has most job openings available since any point over the last 14 years, this means USD will stay strong as Americans spend money and construction and service industry improves there…which should bring the rise in interest rates
predicted next year.
However euro might be close to its low point, doubt Germans would want it to drop too much lower…although it makes their exports super competitive so who knows.


#78

[quote=“buzzkill1”][quote=“Elegua”][quote=“buzzkill1”]@ Elegua: Not sure who was talking about hyperinflation :ponder:

@ HH: I’m sure the gold bugs are all licking their wounds now that gold has crashed in response to the rise of the USD, just as predicted by the experts. I guess USD bugs are the new gold bugs[/quote]

Sorry, I incorrectly had you in the QE = hyperinflation, bond market failure doomsday bucket. I should have had you in the goldbug, half understands monetary policy bucket.

“Nothing beats inflation like cash flow” Ah, the irony… :laughing:[/quote]

Maybe you should have ended it after , “Sorry, I incorrectly had you” , :laughing:

All you got is mud slinging?

Perhaps you could enlighten us, or maybe just post some more quotes that are off-topic, irrelevant, and fail to make a point :unamused:[/quote]

Just quoting you back to yourself.

Even if the US recovery is a historically weak one, it’s still stronger than the other Regions on a relative basis.

Agreed, though I hope they don’t raise rates too soon. There’s still a lot of idle capacity before we get inflation.


#79

Yes, that makes perfect economic sense :liar: As you mentioned, the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows more job openings last year since 2001. Those are job openings and not positions filled. During the housing boom 2002-2006 there were less job openings. So in what way are job openings a sign of improvement? The same Bureau of Labor Statistics also shows the labor participation rate falling during the same 14 year period, and falling faster from 2008 to 2014. Last year marked the lowest percent of the population with employment in 36 years. A bunch of new job openings, yet the percentage of the population working is declining? I’m not going to argue how much of it is from discouraged workers or demographic changes and other variables, the point is that a shrinking portion of the population working is not a positive indicator. But what do you mean things aren’t improving?, just look at all the job openings :laughing:

Reuters just came out with data today showing that home ownership has fallen to a 20-year low…in spite of mortgage rates near all-time lows. That’s okay ba, all those job positions people aren’t filling will turn that around in a jiffy :whistle:

Another sign of economic strength: There are more businesses closing in America than starting.

More signs of a strong outlook: 1 in 5 children are dependent on food stamps. 2 in 5 Americans said they either could not or probably could not come up with $2,000 in cash if they had a month to do so. They are one paycheck away from financial ruin.

“Ownership rates of housing and businesses fell substantially between 2010 and 2013”… “all but the highest quintile saw declines in median income between 2010 and 2013, with second and third quintiles seeing the largest declines (7 percent and 6 percent, respectively)”…" Those in the lowest usual income quintile saw small decreases in median net worth (12 percent, from $7,300 to $6,400), but they also saw the largest proportional decrease in mean net worth (21 percent, from $81,800 to $64,600). Households in the second and third quintile of usual income saw large declines in median net worth (10 percent and 17 percent, respectively)" And that’s coming from the FED itself http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2014/pdf/scf14.pdf

Indicators of the “recovery” after inflation: Job wages, mostly flat. Overall spending on consumer products, mostly flat. Revenues for many businesses, mostly flat (that’s revenue, not profit. Some with flat revenues have managed earning increases by stretching margins, stock buy-backs, and downsizing) .

Janet Yellen won’t say when she’ll raise rates, but that’s ok, she said the U.S. economy is showing strong growth :liar: Let’s take a closer look at that strong growth:

After several years of “recovery”, only 65 of the nation’s 3,069 counties have met or surpassed pre-recession levels in four measured categories: jobs, unemployment rate, economic output and home prices. The recovered counties are largely located in energy-rich areas and have small populations. Of the 65 recovered counties, 24 are in Texas and 16 are in North Dakota. http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/01/12/of-more-than-3000-u-s-counties-just-65-have-recovered-from-recession-naco-says/

Now that oil has tanked those places will be the most adversely affected. But that’s ok ba, At least those laid off workers will have lots of job positions to choose from :discodance:

Nobody really knows what the effects will be if oil service companies start defaulting on their loans in significant numbers, but it might not be pretty. Not to mention the effects of potential credit default swaps tied to energy companies and $100 oil.

But job openings are high and the economy is looking stronger than ever :pray:

It’s not surprising HH would make such an ignorant post, but it’s shocking a successful businessman like Elegua would concur. I guess basic economic understanding isn’t a prerequisite for financial success :bravo:

Sorry for the mud slinging. I’ll wait for a rebuttal consisting of misquotes and off-topic quotes from other threads


#80

Buzzkill you take things personally and throw our personal insults, calm down.

The point is the US is ‘on the turn’ showing strong upward economic momentum, not that it is a bed of roses for everybody. Economic upturns bring more investment and more spending in a virtuous circle just like depressions cut investment and spending in a negative cycle. I am very familiar with upturns and downturns as most of my fellow countrymen would be.Of course recessions destroy dreams and leave people permanently out of the workforce and with poor career prospects.

The point is NOW with so many job openings distributed so widely is very very positive. Large numbers of jobs are the last part to be added to most recoveries, and since the US used QE instead of direct investment in job creation I’m not surprised. 2015 should
finally see a palpable feel good effect in America in most places.

Places like Dakota might suffer badly but even Texas shouldn’t be too bad as Texas has other industries not just oil extraction. Overall lower oil prices are a GOOD thing especially for Americans who drive a lot. Construction will employ more manual workers than oil extraction anyway, far more. Some banks and funds might have bad debts incurred but US banks now are much stronger capitalized and they will be buoyed by the economic upturn.

I am well aware there are structural changes in the workplace and society (due to tech and globalization), but overall it seems the US is in one of the best positions economically worldwide among developed nations. If you are well educated you can very easily get a well paid job there , this is not the case in many other countries. America is a tough place and they don’t provide a safety net for citizens, but that’s not what we are discussing regarding the economy here.