@ Mr He: Actually, the last 2 cycles have been different from historical norms in ways I won’t take time to explain The global economy isn’t the same as when old men where babes
[quote=“Elegua”]Maybe he forgot that employment is a trailing indicator.
Maybe he forgot that currencies are relative - all you have to do is suck less.[/quote]
You mean job openings are a leading indicator? Sort of like how new business start ups are?
How are all those new job openings going to get filled when we’re just a half a percent or so from full employment?
I guess you can cherry pick your way to believing US outlook is strong. Personally, I’m starting to notice more negative signs than positive. Things seem to be getting bleak in other major economies. It’s funny people think the US is somehow either insulated or strong enough to drive global growth, but I’m no fortune teller. Maybe one day I’ll get the whole blow-suck thing down like you and finally understand.
The assumption is that FED policy has worked because the US has been in recovery for several years and now showing “strong” indications of greater growth. So far all they’ve been able to demonstrate is keeping banks’ heads above water for 6 years. The economy looks strong, but we first need unemployment below 6.5%. Everything still looks positive, but we really need unemployment below 6%. It got below 6%, then it was the dollar and not enough inflation. Months of the FED hinting about a rate hike are starting to turn into years.
The economy has been growing for years and all signs positive, but still too fragile to handle a .5% rate? Really? But our tide will raise the boats of the world :homer:
The proof in the pudding will be economic expansion even after monetary policy normalization takes place. Until that happens it’s just more talk
Tell ya what, If the FED keep their funds rate 1% or higher (historically still very low) for as long as 6 months anytime during the next 5 years I’ll buy you a Janet Yellen T-shirt. If they don’t start QE4 anytime in the next 2 years I’ll get you a “I heart Yellen” bumper sticker. If I win, you can kiss my ass , just kidding