TWD going DOWN


#101

NT has made back a lot of its losses last few days.


#102

“(Bloomberg) – Taiwan’s dollar climbed to the strongest level since January as global investors boosted holdings of the island’s shares on speculation the central bank won’t join the global wave of monetary easing.”
:thumbsup:


#103

I really hope it gets back to 30:1 to the USD by this summer…


#104

Looks like the rate to the USD is getting better. Let’s see what the coming week brings…


#105

Yep it’s strengthened a lot, although pretty much within average of last few years, but since USD itself has strengthened against others…so it must be significantly up against other countries …as indeed it is against the Euro. I’m quite surprised the MOF hasn’t tried to weaken the currency, it’s quite a different direction that previous ministers. I guess they are happy cos the stock market has been doing pretty well or China hasn’t weakened too much either.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


#106

Would be a good time to send money home now. I did the other day. Seems to have settled around 30.5. Wonder how long it will stay around there…


#107

That’s right, you better get rid of those NTDs while there’s still time. 30.5? That can’t be right. Haven’t you heard the USD is on a multi-year bull run? Don’t you watch CNBC? By the end of the year you’ll be lucky to get 40. Once the world realizes the US can’t raise rates very much without crashing the economy it will likely go to 50. QE4 might even drop the NT to 60. SELL SELL SELL those TWDs…


#108

^^^^^^^^^ Ummmmm… I’m not sure what exact point you’re trying to make, but some of us do need to send money home for specific reasons. If you do, now is a good time.


#109

Double post.


#110

JPY down to 124 over the last few days. There is an article in the FT saying that it could be as low as 140 year end and that Korea may join in the loosening game. If you agree with the logic of the article then you can also expect the TWD to depreciate as the correlation between the TWD and KRW is pretty high.


#111

I’ve checked the trading data for USD TWD and it’s stayed tight for over 10 years!
I missed the bigger picture of TWD vs Euro and GBP etc. That’s the real concern. Now I see the Euro strengthening again, once the Greek crisis is resolved, it looks like the Euro will go back up somewhat against TWD, that’s what I’m betting. I’d say put some TWD into Euro would be a good time now. USD might strengthen too against TWD if US economic recovery continues, but maybe not as big a bounce back as Euro. Euro traded at about 1:40 TWD for very long periods.


#112

[quote=“headhonchoII”]I’ve checked the trading data for USD TWD and it’s stayed tight for over 10 years!
I missed the bigger picture of TWD vs Euro and GBP etc. That’s the real concern. Now I see the Euro strengthening again, once the Greek crisis is resolved, it looks like the Euro will go back up somewhat against TWD, that’s what I’m betting. I’d say put some TWD into Euro would be a good time now. USD might strengthen too against TWD if US economic recovery continues, but maybe not as big a bounce back as Euro. Euro traded at about 1:40 TWD for very long periods.[/quote]

1:40 would be a big wet dream for me.


#113

:laughing:

Few currencies are looking better than the NT right now. The minister of finance doesn’t really have a strong incentive to weaken the currency, because big business exports out of other countries like China anyway? It seems China has been keeping their currency fairly level. Whatever his reasons are, I hope he maintains course

Europe’s and the US’ problems have just begun…Europe’s little uptick was because the Euro fell. A weak currency alone won’t save the day for long though, and how long can the US afford to have the “strong” currency? The US can’t afford a strong dollar and low inflation, which is one of the reasons they can’t raise interest rates. If they raise rates it will have exactly the opposite affect they’re trying to create. The economy is already faltering, but that’s a secondary concern at this point. Once people realize interest rates can never be normalized again without bankrupting the country both financially and fiscally the gig is pretty much up


#114

It’s all relative, the US economy is showing pretty good jobs growth and it’s odds on for interest rates to go up this year. But the TWD tends to track the USD fairly closely so there’s not much upside or downside usually if you are mainly dealing in USD and TWD. But against the Euro long-term the TWD is near historical lows, since the Eurozone seems to be mainly on the mend I’d bet more on the Euro climbing back a bit to it’s historical levels. The Greek crisis will get resolved one way or the other, it won’t kill the Euro.


#115

Looks like the Euro is on its way back up vis a vis the TWd…almost 35:1 now.

GBP is going to 50+:1 especially with interest rates going up this year in Britain but exports dropping in taiwan.

Buzzkill…you are on the wrong track.


#116

Both good for us exporters.


#117

[quote=“headhonchoII”]

Buzzkill…you are on the wrong track.[/quote]

Hmmm…lets see, what is NTD value now compared to when you started this thread? And I’m the one on the wrong track? :hand:

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Unless the Minister of Finance does a complete reversal on Taiwan’s monetary policy, NTD value moving forward looks good indeed. In the unlikely event the FED raises rates this year you’ll probably see the TWD dip compared to the USD when it happens, but even then I’m guessing it would be temporary. There also might be a dip from capital flight from weaker economies to USD assets even without a rate hike.

Against the others I see the NT holding its own, easily. I’d be surprised if the Euro doesn’t end up losing whatever gains it might be having now and continue to lose ground going into next year

If Taiwan later decides to go into monetary retard mode like most of the planet then I guess all bets are off.


#118

“UK rate rise further off after Bank downgrades inflation forecast”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/63cb543e-3c2a-11e5-8613-07d16aad2152.html

:laughing:


#119

The TWD has suddenly dipped against the USD after a policy change in response to China taking the lead with a Yuan devaluation

“Taiwan’s Dollar Declines to Five-Year Low as Overnight Rate Cut”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/taiwan-s-dollar-declines-to-five-year-low-as-overnight-rate-cut?cmpid=yhoo

It’s still only 32/usd, so hardly anything dramatic. With China jumping into the currency wars now it will be interesting to see what Taiwan does moving forward. This will make it even harder for the FED to raise rates, and at some point we’ll see how much of the expected rate hike is already priced into the USD. Still highly doubtful the NTD will fall much to the Euro or GBP, or that it will fall off a cliff to the USD.

Even if it continues to weaken more against the USD in the short term it will likely be modest unless Taiwan really jumps into an easing mode much more earnestly than they had been, imho. I also think the NTD is ultimately set to gain on the USD when the FED still doesn’t raise rates going into next year, unless by then Taiwan is determined to weaken the NT at all costs.


#120

if you haven’t noticed Taiwan and China aren’t doing too well right now, a lot of
Voices pushing for devaluation and it will happen naturally if foreign investors pull their money out of the stock market.