Typhoons 2017

99W upgraded to tropical storm

92W and 93W popped up in the same area

According to ECMWF there will be a heavy tropical storm/typhoon coming from the South West (dafuq) going straight in direction of Kaohsiung/Kenting, crossing the sea between us and the Philippines then heading North impacting the East coast as well.

For GFS a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT typhoon will be making landfall in Taidong/Hualien,climb over the mountains and head to China.

Whoever wins, we lose.

2017072600_PTA-120_0

And that mixing up with Noru (like a ‘Nari 2’?) will make up for the Perfect Storm :).
Better start saving up water, I still remember 2001, it was badddd …

What’s their ETA friend?

Maybe some interesting reading for those who are interested:

http://taiwanexplorer.blogspot.tw/2015/08/list-of-most-devastating-typhoons-that-hit-taiwan.html

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More seriously: there are currently no reliable ways to forecast the effects of two typhoons interacting with each other due to the insane amount of variables involved. Now we’re looking at two (possibly three) typhoons and up to 3 tropical storm interacting nearly at the same time.

Any prediction/forecast is currently pointless. This Saturday/Sunday the chances of having a nice, warm sunny day are the same of having a category 3 or 4 typhoon making landfall, and this applies to both the East and South West of Taiwan.

Unfortunately we’ll have to wait until things develop one way or the other.

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Flying out of Taoyuan Saturday night! Woo hoo!

If ECMWF is right, you won’t even notice anything.
If GFS is right, your flight will probably get cancelled (depending on time and direction)

It’s nice to have some certainty in life!

Thank you and @TaidongCouncil for your constant updates on this thread, even though most of the time I have no idea what you guys are talking about :thinking:

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GFS, ECMWF etc are models that (try to) forecast the weather, along with many others. They don’t always agree, and when conditions are really weird (like now), they can produce completely different outcomes based on the same starting data.

92W, 93W and similar names are “invests” basically the starting bit of a tropical depression. If it grows stronger it becomes a tropical storm and a typhoon, by which time it gets a proper name like Suadelor, Megi, Morakot etc etc.

Other technical things…uhm…don’t know xP

Leaving Taoyuan late Saturday night, towards Vancouver, so flying over Japan.

A few years back in the aftermath of a typhoon, same route, the plane faced so much turbulence on one side of Japan that it took an abrupt turn across the country to go up the other side instead. I wasn’t exactly scared on that flight, but the crying and screaming by other passengers certainly had me on edge.

Am I reading this particular forecast right, that it is predicted to hit Taipei on the 31st?

If correct, yes. This is the second forecast that brings 99W to Taiwan as a typhoon. For GFS it will make landfall in Taidong, while this forecast shows more impact for Taipei.

ECMWF is still showing the typhoon going far away from typhoon, though.

99W has become Tropical Storm Nestat.

Trip to Hualien this weekend (through to and including Monday). Yea or nay?

It depends on your life expectancy! But I think we’ll have to wait until late Thursday or Friday to have a more reliable forecast:

Nestat is just East of the Philippines “mainland”, so its development over the next 24/48 hours will give us a better idea of its direction. If GFS is correct, the East coast is a No-Go zone for this weekend:

That doesn’t look good at all. Some other weekend, I think. I’ll be watching this. Hopefully I can talk some sense into my wife.

If the other forecast is correct, the weather over the weekend will be great on the East Coast, so it’s definitely worth waiting to see further developments from the 283 typhoons and 93784 tropical storms fooling around us.

WE’RE SURROUNDED

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I wanted to make an image of the forecast with the 3 typhoons hanging around Taiwan, and then put Ackbar’s face on Taiwan, but doing it on my small tablet would drain my livelihood. I give up before even starting…