According to ECMWF there will be a heavy tropical storm/typhoon coming from the South West (dafuq) going straight in direction of Kaohsiung/Kenting, crossing the sea between us and the Philippines then heading North impacting the East coast as well.
For GFS a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT typhoon will be making landfall in Taidong/Hualien,climb over the mountains and head to China.
And that mixing up with Noru (like a âNari 2â?) will make up for the Perfect Storm :).
Better start saving up water, I still remember 2001, it was badddd âŚ
More seriously: there are currently no reliable ways to forecast the effects of two typhoons interacting with each other due to the insane amount of variables involved. Now weâre looking at two (possibly three) typhoons and up to 3 tropical storm interacting nearly at the same time.
Any prediction/forecast is currently pointless. This Saturday/Sunday the chances of having a nice, warm sunny day are the same of having a category 3 or 4 typhoon making landfall, and this applies to both the East and South West of Taiwan.
Unfortunately weâll have to wait until things develop one way or the other.
GFS, ECMWF etc are models that (try to) forecast the weather, along with many others. They donât always agree, and when conditions are really weird (like now), they can produce completely different outcomes based on the same starting data.
92W, 93W and similar names are âinvestsâ basically the starting bit of a tropical depression. If it grows stronger it becomes a tropical storm and a typhoon, by which time it gets a proper name like Suadelor, Megi, Morakot etc etc.
Leaving Taoyuan late Saturday night, towards Vancouver, so flying over Japan.
A few years back in the aftermath of a typhoon, same route, the plane faced so much turbulence on one side of Japan that it took an abrupt turn across the country to go up the other side instead. I wasnât exactly scared on that flight, but the crying and screaming by other passengers certainly had me on edge.
If correct, yes. This is the second forecast that brings 99W to Taiwan as a typhoon. For GFS it will make landfall in Taidong, while this forecast shows more impact for Taipei.
ECMWF is still showing the typhoon going far away from typhoon, though.
It depends on your life expectancy! But I think weâll have to wait until late Thursday or Friday to have a more reliable forecast:
Nestat is just East of the Philippines âmainlandâ, so its development over the next 24/48 hours will give us a better idea of its direction. If GFS is correct, the East coast is a No-Go zone for this weekend:
If the other forecast is correct, the weather over the weekend will be great on the East Coast, so itâs definitely worth waiting to see further developments from the 283 typhoons and 93784 tropical storms fooling around us.
I wanted to make an image of the forecast with the 3 typhoons hanging around Taiwan, and then put Ackbarâs face on Taiwan, but doing it on my small tablet would drain my livelihood. I give up before even startingâŚ