Wikileaks Cablegate: Taiwan related posts

Politics Taiwan Politics
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Some may have already heard about the "Cablegate" leak at Wikileaks, some discussion is in this topic: WikiLeaking US Diplomatic Cables pt 1

Whatever people think about whether or not this should have been released, will or will not have any positive effects etc. we now have a chance to see what the US is (probably) really thinking about Taiwan and China.

Since in the [url=Wikileaks Afghanistan War Logs War Logs thread[/url] similar material is quoted and linked, I hope it is OK to suggest linking, quoting and discussing about the Taiwan related Cablegate material here.

The only post so far (November 30th, 2010) I saw dealing with Taiwan is this one:

09BEIJING1176

[quote]TAIWAN OBSERVERSHIP AT WHA

¶3. (C) The agreement allowing Taiwan to participate as an observer at the World Health Assembly (WHA) meetings in Geneva in May was “one step forward” toward better cross-Strait relations and demonstrated what could be achieved through consultations based on “one China, very broadly interpreted,” XXXXXXXXXXXX said at a XXXXXXXXXXXX working lunch hosted by the Charge d’Affaires. Cross-Strait relations were “improving,” and as they did, China hoped the United States would feel “less burdened, frustrated and nervous,” XXXXXXXXXXXX said. The Charge congratulated XXXXXXXXXXXX on the agreement, noting its timeliness in light of concerns over the H1N1 outbreak, while expressing hope that both sides would continue to take steps to increase mutual trust.
[/quote]

[quote]TIBET AND TAIWAN AS “CORE INTERESTS”

¶15. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX raised concerns over China’s “core interests” of Tibet and Taiwan, which he said could “derail” bilateral cooperation. … [/quote]

What do you guys make of that?

The last part makes me feel that The US is kind of using a Chinese tactic against them: Instead of discussing controversial topics, simply state they are acting in accordance with their laws, well known practices etc., nothing new here, move along… I kinda like it. At least there is no talk about “Don’t worry, the arms we sell to Taiwan are useless anyway because of…”, as it was in other released cables related to other arms sales :slight_smile:

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Thanks for posting that. I tried to get to the site last night; but it was apparently overwhelmed by visitors.

3

Seems consistent with apparent US policy and statements.

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Yep - and that’s a nice thing to see for me :slight_smile:

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There is an interesting cable with Lee Kuan Yew’s view of Taiwan from the Singapore Embassy. Nothing really intriguing, but still interesting.

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That would be this here: 09SINGAPORE529

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Some stuff in Taipei Times about Cablegate vs. Taiwan : taipeitimes.com/News/front/a … 2003489844

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First post from American Institute in Taiwan. 09AITTAIPEI975, EXBS: TAIWAN MONTHLY REPORTING CABLE - AUGUST 2009

Apparently classified as sensitive, but not sure anything particularly noteworthy, except that the US considers Taiwan to be lagging far behind other countries with similar development in the way export controls is managed and cites HK, Korea and Singapore as examples.

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This is from the mentioned Singapore one: 07SINGAPORE1932, LEE KUAN YEW ON BURMA’S “STUPID” GENERALS AND THE “GAMBLER” CHEN SHUI-BIAN

[quote]Chen Shui-bian: The Gambler

  1. © MM Lee told DAS Christensen his September 11 speech to
    the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council set the right “balance” and
    made it clear to both sides where the United States stands.
    He criticized President Chen Shui-bian for being a “gambler.”
    Chen had discredited himself with his corruption scandals
    and the only card he had left was promoting Taiwan
    independence; with nothing left to lose, Chen was ready to
    “go for broke.”     MM Lee asserted that Chen feared a
    post-election criminal investigation regardless of whether
    the KMT or DPP won and had to “consolidate his position.”
    Chen wanted to secure his legacy and avoid becoming a mere
    “footnote” in Taiwan history.

  2. © Lee said he had told Frank Hsieh and Su Tseng-chang in
    separate meetings earlier this year that Taiwan would gain
    nothing from pursuing independence and would pay a great cost
    if it did. They responded that if Taiwan did nothing, it
    would be reunified with the mainland; they did not want to be
    a part of the PRC under any circumstances. Lee said he
    understood their negative history with the KMT but found
    their “antipathy, hatred, and revulsion” toward China to be
    “unbelievable.”

A Role for Japan

  1. © Japan should speak out to restrain Taiwan from making
    provocative moves towards independence, MM Lee said. He
    asked what Japan had agreed to do in response to the proposed
    referendum on joining the UN under the name Taiwan. DAS
    Christensen noted that Japan has expressed its opposition
    privately with President Chen, but did not agree to make any
    public statements opposing the referendum. MM Lee suggested
    that Japan might be willing to make a public statement now
    with Yasuo Fukuda serving as prime minister. Fukuda has
    close ties to the KMT and his father even risked China’s ire
    to attend former President Chiang Ching-kuo’s funeral in
    1988, according to Lee.

Dealing with a Rising China

¶10. © The more fundamental issue was how to deal with a
rising China, MM Lee observed. The intellectual resources of
the United States were being “sucked away” by the problems in
the Middle East, making it difficult for the United States to
focus on China. Over the next several decades, China wants
to concentrate on its internal economic development and to
avoid a conflict over Taiwan, Lee averred. However, if
Taiwan declared independence, China would have no choice but
to respond with force because its leaders have left
themselves no “loopholes.” China hopes that the Taiwan issue
will be resolved on its own over the next fifty years when
Taiwan’s economy becomes “totally embedded” into China. He
pointed to the case of Hong Kong, where the economy has been
booming in recent years due to its greater access to China’s
market and the influx of tourists from the PRC. [/quote]

Note: highlighting on some key sentences in bold by me

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And from Peking on chinese vice-president Xi Jinping: PORTRAIT OF VICE PRESIDENT XI JINPING: “AMBITIOUS SURVIVOR” OF THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION

[quote]27. (C) Xi also knows Taiwan and the Taiwan people very well,
the professor said, noting that Xi was in Fujian province for
more than twenty years. Attracting Taiwan investment to
Fujian was an important part of his accomplishments as a
Xiamen official.
[/quote]

But I am not sure if “knowing Taiwan and the Taiwan people” is a good or a bad thing (from TW point of view) for a vice president of the PRC :ponder:

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[quote=“olm”]And from Peking on chinese vice-president Xi Jinping: PORTRAIT OF VICE PRESIDENT XI JINPING: “AMBITIOUS SURVIVOR” OF THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION

[quote]27. (C) Xi also knows Taiwan and the Taiwan people very well,
the professor said, noting that Xi was in Fujian province for
more than twenty years. Attracting Taiwan investment to
Fujian was an important part of his accomplishments as a
Xiamen official.
[/quote]

But I am not sure if “knowing Taiwan and the Taiwan people” is a good or a bad thing (from TW point of view) for a vice president of the PRC :ponder:[/quote]

It’s probably a very bad thing as he will only have met expats who keep any feelings of a seperate Taiwan identity a secret. A German uni did a research paper comparing the attitudes of the Taiwanese expats in China and found for example that around 70% still would consider themselves Chinese and Taiwanese. This compares with around 20-30% in Taiwan but is similar to the dynamic 10-15 years ago. The overseas community is conservative and cautious and ossified and is out of touch with mainstream opinion here.

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It’s probably a very bad thing as he will only have met expats who keep any feelings of a separate Taiwan identity a secret.[/quote]
Ex-pats should hardly be named a main source of Beijing’s Taiwan intel. Hundreds of Taiwanese businessmen would give money, loyalty, xiao lao poes, or even their left manhood for the chance to get in good with DaLu de party brass. Local guanxi for sure, they’ll invest the company’s hong baos for a grand reception, parade and fireworks. Provincial guanxi - invest 2 months salary savings easily. National party guanxi? Given party saturation is more real and robust than local politicking here is, nothing will stop Taiwan-DA-LaoBan from making his face (name) recognizable. Weighing ex-pat info over Chinese to Chinese sorry seems naive. [url=WikiLeaking US Diplomatic Cables pt 1 - #161 by j.scholl have probably been more resourceful[/url] than DaLu ex-pats.

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For some more WikiLeaks information, here is an article about the latest release mentioning Taiwan examiner.com/taiwan-policy-i … ew-zealand

Michael Richardson

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WikiLeaks cables from AIT show good relationship with Chen Shui-bian on policy
examiner.com/taiwan-policy-i … -on-policy