Will there be a drop in housing prices?

it depends what people mean by own, as in living at home still doesn’t mean you own your own place if you have siblings and living parents. Then I own my home back home just the same.
what’s helped this generation is that they have had less children so can inherit more assets, but the pyramid will slowly get inverted when there are more old people than children to look after.

[quote=“headhonchoII”]it depends what people mean by own, as in living at home still doesn’t mean you own your own place if you have siblings and living parents. Then I own my home back home just the same.
what’s helped this generation is that they have had less children so can inherit more assets, but the pyramid will slowly get inverted when there are more old people than children to look after.[/quote]

You completely misunderstand. There should be no analysis that considers adult children living at home as home owners but at the same time no analysis should consider them as renters. The result is that there aren’t very many renters in Taiwan. So even though there is a high percentage of home ownership and in theory a low number of rentals but the number of renters are even smaller. Basic supply and demand.

It certainly doesn’t help when landlords are competing with free in a country where it’s common for 30+ yr olds to live at home though.

The main thing is that the youth population is plummeting, meanwhile more houses are being built all the time, so it means many unoccupied or underutilised units. So yep, supply and demand is key. There’s a lot of cruddy crummy apartments out there, but as long as the price is right, people will rent them, especially if in a convenient location. There’s almost no market for renters above 30k or so in Taipei (of course there are places for rent for any sum, but the vast majority of families will not and cannot pay more than 25k or so rent in Taipei…and single people just rent smaller cheap taofangs or stay at home)…from what I have seen, and in Taichung and other places anytime you talk about renting a place for 20k the agents often just ask ‘why don’t you buy’?
So it’s a weird one where you have these really expensive apartments but they don’t really have a tenant base to rent them.

[quote=“headhonchoII”]The main thing is that the youth population is plummeting, meanwhile more houses are being built all the time, so it means many unoccupied or underutilised units. So yep, supply and demand is key. There’s a lot of cruddy crummy apartments out there, but as long as the price is right, people will rent them, especially if in a convenient location. There’s almost no market for renters above 30k or so in Taipei (of course there are places for rent for any sum, but the vast majority of families will not and cannot pay more than 25k or so rent in Taipei…and single people just rent smaller cheap taofangs or stay at home)…from what I have seen, and in Taichung and other places anytime you talk about renting a place for 20k the agents often just ask ‘why don’t you buy’?
So it’s a weird one where you have these really expensive apartments but they don’t really have a tenant base to rent them.[/quote]

Mmm, I think that the lack of young buyers has no effect on the houses being sold because the young folk are not the ones doing the buying. The biggest buyers, the ones that buy the most, are the “big property hoarder fandongs”. The ones that have 20 or more places as “investment”, or "for rent. Due to the M economy, these are the ones that have more resources and keep gathering more resources as we speak, because the economy funnels resources into their pockets, away from the rest. So the rest actually have less to buy, and less means to buy if there is anything available.

The “hoarders” do not care if they rent, do not care if rents go up or down, as they own. They will pass on these properties to their descendants, who probably are in the US or anywhere abroad but Taiwan, and they will become stagnant, throwing a wrench in the economy. But that does not matter to them. They own.

Just like the stock market here plummets out of everyone pulling their money here to invest in China’s stocks, it has little to do with Taiwan and a lot with where the money is coming from. They have created a self eating monster here.

Yeah you are right it’s capitalism eating itself, they extract the resources from here and that is why they don’t care so much about the poor economic prospects as they see their families future elsewhere or their family has already emigrated. Both the current President and CSB kids had that plan it seems.

There is one DPP legislator with 97 properties who is head of their ‘housing commission’ and there is another legislator with over 100 properties in Taiwan.

They have managed to keep asset taxes minimal and also property taxes minimal, whenever the executive yuan wants to introduce a bill they water them down to become ineffective.

This seems to be the function of the legislature, to make almost all new bills ineffective!

Now we have a leading candidate for Taipei mayor, whose family is worth over 1 billion USD (the father and grandfather were career politicians who amassed 1 billion USD…lol), I doubt anything will change.

How retail works is hard to fathom. some sustainable businesses pay those rents, so some must be able to make it work.

yeah I don’t get how a lot of these luxury shops with nobody in them survive, seems I’m not rich enough to understand their business models.
As for the cafes, I guess many are bankrolled by relatives or run as a hobby with little to no profit.

[quote=“headhonchoII”]yeah I don’t get how a lot of these luxury shops with nobody in them survive, seems I’m not rich enough to understand their business models.
As for the cafes, I guess many are bankrolled by relatives or run as a hobby with little to no profit.[/quote]

That is my question. In the ol country, mosquito hall establishments act as fronts for money laundering. Could be the same here, with funds from China? Or just funneling earnings from there into black holes here, but for what purpose? Moreover, one must note that the places where the mosquito halls are worth much more, so basically, if they are owned by the people running the store, they do not care about profit or anything else. But if paying rent, how?

Oh I think some of them must make money selling overpriced stuff to other wealthy people, I just never see anybody in their stores though!

Most of China is like that aswell to be fair, maybe ethnic Chinese people like sitting around in shops most of their lives?

[quote=“Icon”][quote=“headhonchoII”]yeah I don’t get how a lot of these luxury shops with nobody in them survive, seems I’m not rich enough to understand their business models.
As for the cafes, I guess many are bankrolled by relatives or run as a hobby with little to no profit.[/quote]

That is my question. In the ol country, mosquito hall establishments act as fronts for money laundering. Could be the same here, with funds from China? Or just funneling earnings from there into black holes here, but for what purpose? Moreover, one must note that the places where the mosquito halls are worth much more, so basically, if they are owned by the people running the store, they do not care about profit or anything else. But if paying rent, how?[/quote]

As you said, many places are for money laundering purpose, just make that the money you put in matches the goods going out, make up sales, fapiao’s as much as you want, just balance and pay the taxes. Where the goods go? Probably black market :smiley: … night markets.
All places with the yellow sticker (<200,000 NT$/month taxable income) have an even simpler tax regimen, easier to launder money … people can loan money from loan sharks and are stuck, tricked in doing just that, launder money. I even think that stores disappear regularly to avoid discovery.

The same goes on in Europe … Chinese restaurants that almost have no customers, staying open for years. (human trafficking, drugs and money laundering). Now the Chinese are starting to take-over our national pride, Belgian fries/snack stores. Because they have still one of the special tax regimens you can cheat with. They buy the places for a price you can’t refuse.

[quote=“headhonchoII”]Oh I think some of them must make money selling overpriced stuff to other wealthy people, I just never see anybody in their stores though!

Most of China is like that aswell to be fair, maybe ethnic Chinese people like sitting around in shops most of their lives?[/quote]

A lot depends on what you sell. If you sell Rimowa suitcases as a foreign guy did here once, then you do not need a very high throughput of customers in order to turn a profit, after all one item would run you at NT$25-40,000, so with on average 2-3 sales per day, you would be OK.

[quote=“headhonchoII”]Oh I think some of them must make money selling overpriced stuff to other wealthy people, I just never see anybody in their stores though!

Most of China is like that aswell to be fair, maybe ethnic Chinese people like sitting around in shops most of their lives?[/quote]

Owners of a store and running it just live there, no additional cost, it’s their living room, kitchen … and if it’s an eatery … almost free food. :laughing: and they’re open 7/7 from 10-am-10pm …

[quote=“Mr He”][quote=“headhonchoII”]Oh I think some of them must make money selling overpriced stuff to other wealthy people, I just never see anybody in their stores though!

Most of China is like that aswell to be fair, maybe ethnic Chinese people like sitting around in shops most of their lives?[/quote]

A lot depends on what you sell. If you sell Rimowa suitcases as a foreign guy did here once, then you do not need a very high throughput of customers in order to turn a profit, after all one item would run you at NT$25-40,000, so with on average 2-3 sales per day, you would be OK.[/quote]

I think when you average 2 sales a week instead of 2-3 a day it’s been a good week … is he still open? Or did he retire young?

[quote=“headhonchoII”]Yeah you are right it’s capitalism eating itself, they extract the resources from here and that is why they don’t care so much about the poor economic prospects as they see their families future elsewhere or their family has already emigrated. Both the current President and CSB kids had that plan it seems.

There is one DPP legislator with 97 properties who is head of their ‘housing commission’ and there is another legislator with over 100 properties in Taiwan.

They have managed to keep asset taxes minimal and also property taxes minimal, whenever the executive yuan wants to introduce a bill they water them down to become ineffective.

This seems to be the function of the legislature, to make almost all new bills ineffective!

Now we have a leading candidate for Taipei mayor, whose family is worth over 1 billion USD (the father and grandfather were career politicians who amassed 1 billion USD…lol), I doubt anything will change.[/quote]

“Legislator owning > 70 properties”. Read this in Tapei Times a few weeks ago. Gave me a little realisation of how things work here in this country.

So. Working for the govenment enabling oneself and friends to accumulate wealth. Doing whatever one can to keep things this way. No wonder this can go on for so many years. This is, in one word, SICK.

[quote=“Belgian Pie”][quote=“Mr He”][quote=“headhonchoII”]Oh I think some of them must make money selling overpriced stuff to other wealthy people, I just never see anybody in their stores though!

Most of China is like that aswell to be fair, maybe ethnic Chinese people like sitting around in shops most of their lives?[/quote]

A lot depends on what you sell. If you sell Rimowa suitcases as a foreign guy did here once, then you do not need a very high throughput of customers in order to turn a profit, after all one item would run you at NT$25-40,000, so with on average 2-3 sales per day, you would be OK.[/quote]

I think when you average 2 sales a week instead of 2-3 a day it’s been a good week … is he still open? Or did he retire young?[/quote]

he had a few shops and owned a fairly big house which he later sold. Would not know the story.He has left Taiwan, however it seems to have been a planned move.

[quote=“darth_guy”][quote=“headhonchoII”]Yeah you are right it’s capitalism eating itself, they extract the resources from here and that is why they don’t care so much about the poor economic prospects as they see their families future elsewhere or their family has already emigrated. Both the current President and CSB kids had that plan it seems.

There is one DPP legislator with 97 properties who is head of their ‘housing commission’ and there is another legislator with over 100 properties in Taiwan.

They have managed to keep asset taxes minimal and also property taxes minimal, whenever the executive yuan wants to introduce a bill they water them down to become ineffective.

This seems to be the function of the legislature, to make almost all new bills ineffective!

Now we have a leading candidate for Taipei mayor, whose family is worth over 1 billion USD (the father and grandfather were career politicians who amassed 1 billion USD…lol), I doubt anything will change.[/quote]

“Legislator owning > 70 properties”. Read this in Tapei Times a few weeks ago. Gave me a little realisation of how things work here in this country.

So. Working for the govenment enabling oneself and friends to accumulate wealth. Doing whatever one can to keep things this way. No wonder this can go on for so many years. This is, in one word, SICK.[/quote]

Expain the value of Putin … US$ 55 billion … a former KGB agent, 20 years after the fall of the CCCP (USSR) … Most politicians are not politicians to help people or to serve their country. :no-no: It’s true in any country.

[quote=“Mr He”][quote=“Belgian Pie”][quote=“Mr He”][quote=“headhonchoII”]Oh I think some of them must make money selling overpriced stuff to other wealthy people, I just never see anybody in their stores though!

Most of China is like that aswell to be fair, maybe ethnic Chinese people like sitting around in shops most of their lives?[/quote]

A lot depends on what you sell. If you sell Rimowa suitcases as a foreign guy did here once, then you do not need a very high throughput of customers in order to turn a profit, after all one item would run you at NT$25-40,000, so with on average 2-3 sales per day, you would be OK.[/quote]

I think when you average 2 sales a week instead of 2-3 a day it’s been a good week … is he still open? Or did he retire young?[/quote]

he had a few shops and owned a fairly big house which he later sold. Would not know the story.He has left Taiwan, however it seems to have been a planned move.[/quote]

He probably had enough money to start with.

Saying ‘every country has politicians who serve themselves not their country’ is a bit meaningless. For example, politicians in New Zealand or Norway are not as self-serving and corrupt as Taiwan’s.

Likewise you couldn’t say “Everybody have at least one health problem”. Clearly some people are healthier than others.
Or how about… “Every country has polluted rivers”. This also gives us nothing.

Honestly, this land speculation is nothing but shooting oneself in the foot.

Every weekend, I try to take the doggies to the HTC park, because it is really nice. Ypou have this nice park, behind it the brand new HTC building, and most surroundings are tall building on the newish side, plus a couple of really fancy places. But next to HTC there are these parking lots -OK, people waiting to develop- which are OKish, but right between them and right next to MRTC’s car park entrance, there is a tie pi wu, a corrugated iron shack, surrounded by the usual garbage paraphernalia you’d expect of such a place. I have seen an ol hag shuffling around, so you can guess it is maybe an old couple living there.

Why would anyone want to live under such conditions? If it is their property, please don’t tell me it is the usual waiting to sell it fort a gazillion zillion? I hope it is a case where the family cannot agree to sell the place for how many gazillion zillions. After all, it is next to HTC.

Meanwhile, they bake themselves in summer, their kids -if any- won’t visit under such conditions, and the garbage piles on. But they are millionaires.

You know? People in my country party/drink/buy fortunes away. I am not so keen on criticizing them after seeing what the other extreme of scroogeness does. I mean, I am not asking them to be country bumps and sell their land without backup and end up cutting the grass when a new brand hotel is built. But heck, is it so bad to ask people to enjoy life? A bit of comfort? A clean, healthy place? Sometimes I do wonder if my people, who are poor but happy, have it right.

[quote=“Icon”]Honestly, this land speculation is nothing but shooting oneself in the foot.

Every weekend, I try to take the doggies to the HTC park, because it is really nice. Ypou have this nice park, behind it the brand new HTC building, and most surroundings are tall building on the newish side, plus a couple of really fancy places. But next to HTC there are these parking lots -OK, people waiting to develop- which are OKish, but right between them and right next to MRTC’s car park entrance, there is a tie pi wu, a corrugated iron shack, surrounded by the usual garbage paraphernalia you’d expect of such a place. I have seen an ol hag shuffling around, so you can guess it is maybe an old couple living there.

Why would anyone want to live under such conditions? If it is their property, please don’t tell me it is the usual waiting to sell it fort a gazillion zillion? I hope it is a case where the family cannot agree to sell the place for how many gazillion zillions. After all, it is next to HTC.

Meanwhile, they bake themselves in summer, their kids -if any- won’t visit under such conditions, and the garbage piles on. But they are millionaires.

You know? People in my country party/drink/buy fortunes away. I am not so keen on criticizing them after seeing what the other extreme of scroogeness does. I mean, I am not asking them to be country bumps and sell their land without backup and end up cutting the grass when a new brand hotel is built. But heck, is it so bad to ask people to enjoy life? A bit of comfort? A clean, healthy place? Sometimes I do wonder if my people, who are poor but happy, have it right.[/quote]

A lot of old folks are set in their ways. The old hag has been scavenging and hoarding junk all her life, and that gives her a sense of security. She’s perfectly content living in an old shack with no a/c. If you put her in a brand new penthouse with a river view, gym and 24 hour security, she wouldn’t know what to do with her life and would probably feel miserable.