I think the land was owned by the MRT or local government , the locals used to walk around it for exercise, now it’s empty luxury apartments and the locals have their tiny park again to walk around in circles across the road. Values.
My real estate agent wanted me to buy this old gongwu in Wenhua road in Xindian, next to the park. I was not too keen as it was right next to the entrance to MeiHeSu there -which I saw last weekend is quite a traffic exit. But that old park there is quite cute and quaint, wished every neighborhood had one. It has the exercise equipment, a little pond/stream with fish, the foot massage stones, heck even the rock climbing wall. Seems a fun place to live.
It is surrounded by this bunch of old gonwus -actually, seem newer than the one I live in. Those I guess are prime targets for rebuilding and I am surprised they haven’t been torn down yet. I guess their situation is the same as my own hood: neighbors can’t make up their minds on how many gazillion zillions they will settle for their land.
As long as the tree lined boulevars in Sanmin and Wenhua stay safe, I don’t mind. Bobby and I had a great walk there.
OK, this piece really … how can I say it… it is way too much. have alook -my reactions in emoji since I cannot say what I need to say without getting banned:
[quote]Taipei, Nov. 19 (CNA) First-time home buyers are increasingly shunning the [color=#FF0000]ritz[/color] of Taipei and New Taipei in favor of Keelung, Taoyuan, Yilan City and other nearby areas to avoid skyrocketing home prices in the capital, National Realty said Wednesday. 
Buyers are seeking to take advantage of the geographic proximity of those three areas [color=#FF0000]to the prosperous and job-rich Greater Taipei region[/color], the property sales agency said. :loco:
Chang Ching-yun, head of research of National Realty, said more than 50 percent of residents relocating themselves to Keelung, Taoyuan or Yilan in the first nine months of this year were coming from Taipei or New Taipei.
“Used home prices in Keelung, Taoyuan and Yilan are only about one-fourth to one-third of the prices quoted in Taipei and New Taipei. The three cities appeared attractive to people who wanted to leave behind unaffordable home prices,” Chang said. 
Statistics showed that a total of 7,811 people moved to Keelung – [color=#FF0000]about a 20-25 minute freeway drive to Taipei [/color]-- in the first nine months of this year, with 71 percent of them coming from either Taipei or New Taipei, the ring that surrounds the capital. 
[/quote]
More at CNA
25 minute drive to Keelung to Nangang probably… then you get stuck in the turnpike… Used homes,… ritz… prosperous…! :roflmao: 
Year over year transactions down nearly 20% in Taipei City, nearly 25% in New Taipei City.
wantchinatimes.com/news-subc … ainCatID=0
WTF…can someone explain why taxes aren’t based on the actual amount earned by sellers?
Because the legislators own many properties.
I wonder if many young people know about or have paid attention to this? It’s pretty infuriating that there’s a tax “clause” for income generated from flipping houses…if that is indeed the case.
[quote=“rocky raccoon”]Year over year transactions down nearly 20% in Taipei City, nearly 25% in New Taipei City.
wantchinatimes.com/news-subc … ainCatID=0
WTF…can someone explain why taxes aren’t based on the actual amount earned by sellers?[/quote]
My accountant told me yesterday the tax house informed him it’s going to start fully enforcing actual capital gains valuations on property sales and corporate taxes paid can no longer be used to offset personal income taxes of business owners. Times are indeed changing in Taiwan.
[quote=“Winston Smith”]
My accountant told me yesterday the tax house informed him it’s going to start fully enforcing actual capital gains valuations on property sales and corporate taxes paid can no longer be used to offset personal income taxes of business owners. Times are indeed changing in Taiwan.[/quote]
The second one is a chocker - I am used to declare my income and receive a nice cheque for my troubles. Dammit.
I’ll give 100nt to anybody who can read that sentence out loud in one breath.
In all seriousness, is this change going to be a good one? Someone tell me, because I’m financially illiterate.
Prices in Da-An have been going down for two months straight. It’s a subtle thing, but constant. The banks have been giving less credit to buy real estate, and the government has been using the law to prevent people from flipping real estate properties as a short-time investment. This has slowed down the market, which makes the fall slower, too. It’s happening now and it will increase next year. My prediction is, one year from now, in December 2015, prices will be on average between 15% and 30% lower than now, at least in Taipei city. In New Taipei city, where the prices aren’t as high, the prices will also go down but not as much.
Smaller apartments’ prices will fall faster, while bigger properties will keep their value. In terms of price/ping, the price per ping will tend to be similar in properties on the same area, not varying so much depending on the size of the apartment (usually, the smaller apartments have a much higher price/ping, and that’s why those are the ones that lose more value when the price/ping goes down to balance with that of the biggest properties).
[quote=“Blaquesmith”]Prices in Da’an have been going down for two months straight. It’s a subtle thing, but constant. The banks have been giving less credit to buy real estate, and the government has been using the law to prevent people from flipping real estate properties as a short-time investment. This has slowed down the market, which makes the fall slower, too. It’s happening now and it will increase next year. My prediction is, one year from now, in December 2015, prices will be on average between 15% and 30% lower than now, at least in Taipei city. In New Taipei city, where the prices aren’t as high, the prices will also go down but not as much.
Smaller apartments’ prices will fall faster, while bigger properties will keep their value. In terms of price/ping, the price per ping will tend to be similar in properties on the same area, not varying so much depending on the size of the apartment (usually, the smaller apartments have a much higher price/ping, and that’s why those are the ones that lose more value when the price/ping goes down to balance with that of the biggest properties).[/quote]
You have it all wrong except for the slow downtrend.
Price for small apartment will have a higher ratio ping/$, while it will be the contrary for big flats.
And taipei’s value will remain stronger in comparison of new taipei.
Taipei will always be well above the national average just like New York is above the US national average simply because of the prestige associated with it (and of course the convenience). That should also insulate it somewhat from any national downturns, so I would expect Xinbei to fall by a greater amount, in terms of percentage.
The housing market is broken into sectors, while affordable housing will be important for the middle class, people will buy in areas closer to the city if they can, and nearer MRT in general. So I would say Taoyuan prices will take the biggest hit.
But I would expect the really expensive luxury places in non central areas to drop the most, because who will buy them if they are empty?
I don’t see a bust here so much as a slow decline in prices. Theres no population growth to create demand, and in even in the few cities that are still growing, there is tonnes of housing available.
While central Taipei might fall less in relative terms, the absolute destruction of wealth will be bigger here.
Yes, nominal values matter too, especially if the money is borrowed. I think most of the people who bought these luxury apartments are very well off so they can take the hit, but it will still hurt and it will be hard to cash out of their ‘investments’. There are also plenty of rich families who will just sit on their numerous apartments as they have for decades already. Thats why I think it will be a slow burn as the air is taken out of the bubble except for places like Taoyuan or Bade or Tamshui where they are awkward commutes and not very appealing.
it was a 10 year old burn last time, however there are differences between then and now.
First of all, households are much moe indebted now - and on variable interest. If the interest goes up, the show burn will turn into fast rout. People will start to go bust and the houses get foreclosed. At 55% of income going to service housing debt, I think that the market here is much more precarious than it was in 1991.
My missus toyed about buying our present pad, however when I pointed out that the housing prices have falled 10% and some savvy Taiwanese friends pointed out that there as another 20% fall in store for the high end parts of Taipei, she gave up; I said that she can pick it up for half in 4-5 years. Also putting 20% in now would mean that our own savings would be wiped out if ti fell less than 20%
I would look at cash values when buying here and how much I can finance in cash - that’s the main safety you can have.
[quote=“Markova”][quote=“Blaquesmith”]Prices in Da’an have been going down for two months straight. It’s a subtle thing, but constant. The banks have been giving less credit to buy real estate, and the government has been using the law to prevent people from flipping real estate properties as a short-time investment. This has slowed down the market, which makes the fall slower, too. It’s happening now and it will increase next year. My prediction is, one year from now, in December 2015, prices will be on average between 15% and 30% lower than now, at least in Taipei city. In New Taipei city, where the prices aren’t as high, the prices will also go down but not as much.
Smaller apartments’ prices will fall faster, while bigger properties will keep their value. In terms of price/ping, the price per ping will tend to be similar in properties on the same area, not varying so much depending on the size of the apartment (usually, the smaller apartments have a much higher price/ping, and that’s why those are the ones that lose more value when the price/ping goes down to balance with that of the biggest properties).[/quote]
You have it all wrong except for the slow downtrend.
Price for small apartment will have a higher ratio ping/$, while it will be the contrary for big flats.
And taipei’s value will remain stronger in comparison of new taipei.[/quote]
What did I just say?
Taipei value will always be more expensive, but right now, the prices are MUCH higher. Since they are overinflated, the prices can fall a lot and still be higher that in the surrounding areas. This is how it works.
Read my previous posts in this thread if you need more info on the context I’m basing my affirmations on.
If we look at places like Danshui, Linkou and Sanxia - oh boy. If we have a slow bust, it will turn into a crash out there.
It will not be an issue of you taking a haircut, it will be more like you being lucky enough to find a buyer at any price.
This will not happen in Taipei. There will be a functioning market here.
In absolute terms the losses can be bigger. If I buy a flat here for NT$70mil and sells it for NT$35mil in 4 years, my loss will be NT$35mil.
If I buy a place in Sanxia for NT$8mil and I have to sell it for NT$500,000 in 4 years, my loss will only be NT$7.5 mil.
I do wonder how many people will be affected , if at all. The biggest buyers own 40 homes, so if their castle of cards comes crashing, it is still only one. The individual buyers may have less room to move about but there are less property owners in this situation. The few greedy ones that bought with loans have already been priced out of the market. The Government might be able to bail out the real homeowners still, like they did the credit card owners in the last crash.
The key will be interest rates. If interest rates rise (thus raising monthly payments) then the individual buyers are going to be in big trouble. They are probably doing everything they can just to make their monthly payments now and coming up with an extra 10-20K/mo could be devastating. And then if the buyers aren’t there they can’t even sell for a decent price. This is what everyone should be concerned about.
And if ESL teachers think this won’t affect them they are shortsighted. When people have to make the choice between foreclosure and ESL classes with native teachers then SOME will pull their kids out of buxibans and find cheaper options.
As far as the speculator with 40 homes is concerned. That is the crushing blow. If he gets foreclosed on or goes into bankruptcy then nobody will be able to sell anything at a decent price because of massive oversupply.