Recent polling from 台灣民意基金會(should be most reliable)
Chiang 29.8%
Huang 26.6%
Chen 21.8%
Chiang is polling top with men, and Huang with women.
Huang is doing best with the under 45
Chiang is favorite with over 35
Chen is most popular with over 65
No poll results allowed to be posted or discussed 10 days before the election.
Who knows how this will play out on Saturday.
Guy
As of 10 November
So, who is everybody voting for? Just kidding…
It does seem that Americans (and westerners in Taiwan in general) are very Green to the extent that they follow politics here at all. It’s understandable that the majority of foreigners would sympathize with the Greens, I’ve noticed that Western expats are usually left leaning (except the French) and the KMT literally translates to “China Nationalist Party.” but I find it weird that I’ve met a waiguoren who is pan-red but none who are pan-blue.
I’m not left leaning, but I generally prefer Green. Not that I think the DPP are amazing, just that the alternative is much worse.
Because of China?
That, and lack of democratic values.
I think a lot of foreigners are stuck in 2014 or maybe 2019. They don’t really follow politics here outside of the sunflowers or Han wave time, when there was a clear dichotomy between good and bad. Many are also stuck in the identity politics from when they first got here.
Basically the narrative is ‘kmt want to be close to China, Aldo dictatorship before, kmt bad. Dpp has progressive in their name and against the bad people’
There was some truth to this for a while, but it’s so detached from actual political discourse here that laughable. The issue is when it seeps into media and then policy.
Cross Straits issues and identity stuff are boring and trite, to at least the white collar 20-30 something I speak to in Taipei.
The blue green dichotomy of the Ma Chen era is meaningless for educated people under 45, but most big noses haven’t updated the software
DPP do loads of dodgy gangster shit and media control stuff. They are just as bad. And they have been in power since 2016 and not changed anything.
Yeah, I’m not a fan of the DPP. If I could vote, I definitely wouldn’t vote for Chen in Taipei. I trust a DPP candidate more for the presidency though. You just know that if a KMT candidate got elected again the let’s sell out to China shit would start right up again where it left off.
Taiwan basically has the political class of a developing country. Something that you would imagine from the Domincan Republic or somewhere like that.
When Taiwan democratized, it wasnt far away from being a developing country, and a brutal corrupt authoritarian regime. So was understandable in the 90s why things were that way.
Right now Taiwan is an extremely wealthy and developed country. Education levels are high. The private sector is advanced. But the politicians and their behavior is still stuck in the 90s.
I think this is the root of malaise. Taipei is in many ways a close to top-tier global city in 2022, and the country is being led by corrupt incompetent hicks
I’m not sure if will be true in the future. Depends on what direction they go.
The party is slowly evolving, but it won’t have a full Taiwan focus until all the crusty old men at the highest levels all die off.
hear hear, until Ma still has voice in the party, KMT would not change much. Their arrogance also is their worst pity. They always know better but do chickenshit.
So, when the old farts will die out, maybe KMT will change, until then, still an Han supremacist party like the CCP.
It is a Taiwanese political party with a Taiwan focus(in 2022). I also think they are shit.
But Ma doesnt represent the mainstream, and if they choose more technocratic capable candidate, I think could win again in 2024
The whole wider climate has changed. Taiwanese businesses are leaving China now and nobody sees it as a business opprtunity(as the economy is slowing and the politics has changed). So really who knows?
I’m definitely rooting for the KMT to improve, because you can’t have a real democracy without a strong opposition party. I’d hate for Taiwan to end up like Japan under one-party LDP rule.
Desperate need for a third force
Yeah, and unfortunately so far all the newer parties have been huge disappointments.
Just need politicians with actual policies rather than ‘he is very sincere’ ‘ she is friendly and hardworking’
Was cute before, but not anymore