A Chinese economy thread

An ESL book I was using is a couple of years old, and Jack Ma is presented in one of the essay sections as an exemplar to follow.
(In a series for high school students, they had great examples of achievement against the odds to look up to. The athletes were Tiger Woods, pre-crash, Lance Armstrong,before was he stripped of his awards for doping, and Oscar Pistorius, before shooting and murdering his girlfriend


only need 1 more great example and they can field a basketball team

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“We’re seeing an optimistic America and frankly a China that’s confronted with, again, a whole barrage of economic problems hitting them in all different directions,” said Wendy Cutler, a former long-serving senior US trade negotiator and now vice-president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “That said, the US should not be beating its chest here. This may weaken the competition, but China is a formidable economic rival.”

Yeah way too many glib economist articles recently. Would rather see how situation plays out a bit more


Yeah I would rather witness something similar to Argentina in China before I start celebrating.


Maybe like japan, things will be cheap become a shopping haven for Taiwanese like going to Japan. Seems prices going down in China, maybe I shop RIMOWA , which is sky high in Taiwan compared to EU even with lower VAT

No money need a job for shopping, another Pacific City hiring Americans
This New Zealand City Is Hiring Americans — and There Are 3,000 Jobs to Choose From (msn.com)

Essential reading/listening on Huawei semiconductor breakthrough. Very sobering. Huawei basically achieved in a year what it took Intel a decade to do, despite the restrictions.

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Also this


I’ll listen to it later but it was expected. I have little doubt they can do 5nm too. It’s gonna get rough after that though.

Also do we have any review about how good the node is?


Techinsights did the RE. Geometrically, at least, it looks like a solid 7nm process.

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yeah all in the article/podcast

Node is sheet.
Yields at 7nm, maybe 20%.

SMIC cannot use EUV (due to trade bans, yada yada), and thus its DUV masks are burning up, impacting yields.
Basically an inferior chip.

Each higher nodes have more EUV layers, but still can’t use it so yields will get worse as running thru more DUV layers.

Stop worrying about China semiconductors, just buy TSMC/TSM and hold for a decade.

All bets off given any war/military operation in/across the strait.

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Did you listen to the podcast? Or the article?

Put simply, Kirin 9000S is a better designed chip than the West realizes. It has solid power and performance. Even with the lackluster export controls, this is a leading edge chip that would be near the front of the pack in 2021, yet was done with no access to EUV, no access to cutting edge US IP, and intentionally hampered. We cannot overstate how scary this is.

This SMIC N+3 “5nm” process would also be economical to produce given the level of governmental subsidies. While the lack of EUV would increase total lithography costs by 55% to 60% in our estimation, remember that lithography is only ~30% of the total process cost at 5nm currently. This means that the total process cost would only be ~20% higher versus a 5nm that utilizes EUV. Yield likely takes a hit and therefore the actual number will be higher due to more defective chips per wafer, but it will not be an insurmountable barrier for China.

If nothing changes with current restrictions, we expect Huawei and SMIC to have a true 5nm based chip in 2025 or 2026 with large scale AI chips not so long after. The current export controls are not limiting China’s manufacturing capabilities or capacity.

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don’t have to listen to it. I know more about SMIC as friend connected up and down semiconductor food chain. Even knows workers inside SMIC. anyway, you can believe SMIC is next TSMC.

know the difference between EUV and DUV

They mention all of that, they say the EUV isnt everything and there is too much focus on lithography

they know nothing. I know guys in industry with 25+ years experience.
Top management connections who are suppliers to TSMC. he’s got connections everywhere. SMiC still a joke. Just for face right now. not a threat to TSMC at all for 5-10 years

The Podcast isnt about TSMC or SMIC being a threat to TSMC. Thats not the point

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maybe reading wrong report, but this inside the Huawei link:

SMIC N+2 is better than most in the west realize. Part of the reason these chips are so close to each other is [Samsung’s poor yield] and SMIC’s good yield.

20% yields is what my friend says, which is crap.

The chip technology restrictions are not about hobbling China’s development of smartphones, its about military technology and AI

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need chips for AI