[quote=“sofun”][quote=“headhonchoII”]Who are these ‘dedicated loyalists’ , a few hundred at most, where would they go, what would be the point? Maybe Kinmen (Jinmen) (Jinmen)…it would make little difference to Taiwan
And change nothing about PRC towards Taiwan except for pissing off Taiwanese people.[/quote]
I think there are at least one million ROCers, who are Chinese Loyalists regardless of what kind of path Taiwan takes. That’s enough to make up a functioning SAR. Whether they would be motivated to affect any real change in China is unknown. If there is not such SAR, they might perceive to be under existential threat, and that’s when things could get out of control.[/quote]
But what would they get out of this mythical SAR that would be better than they have already? And your number of 1 million is really laughable, sorry.
What you’re talking about is a lot like the South African “Volkstaat” concept. (Look it up if you want to see how it turned out.)
If the Chinese people want Taiwan to be a part of China so much, but don’t care what that means exactly, why not simply have the PRC declare that Taiwan is part of China right now (okay, they do that already), so presto! Problem solved, everybody goes home happy. Taiwan can do the same with respect to independence.
I am mainly talking about a minor territorial cession in which the Chinese loyalists can comfortably build their society to be integrated with China, just like Crimea prefers to be absorbed into Russia and Northern Island prefers the UK.
Consider the alternative where Taiwan continues Taiwanization, then the Chinese loyalists will probably still do everything to sabotage Taiwan, for generations. The cost of this is probably much higher than a Crimea/Northern Ireland model.[/quote]
They’d still sabotage it. Many Russian loyalists in Crimea want other parts of the Ukraine to be annexed by Russia as well.
[quote=“headhonchoII”][quote=“sofun”][quote=“headhonchoII”]Who are these ‘dedicated loyalists’ , a few hundred at most, where would they go, what would be the point? Maybe Kinmen (Jinmen) (Jinmen) (Jinmen)…it would make little difference to Taiwan
And change nothing about PRC towards Taiwan except for pissing off Taiwanese people.[/quote]
I think there are at least one million ROCers, who are Chinese Loyalists regardless of what kind of path Taiwan takes. That’s enough to make up a functioning SAR. Whether they would be motivated to affect any real change in China is unknown. If there is not such SAR, they might perceive to be under existential threat, and that’s when things could get out of control.[/quote]
But what would they get out of this mythical SAR that would be better than they have already? And your number of 1 million is really laughable, sorry.[/quote]
Essentially, they get “unification” fast-tracked, and never have to be held hostage by the either Taiwan and China.
[quote=“Zla’od”]What you’re talking about is a lot like the South African “Volkstaat” concept. (Look it up if you want to see how it turned out.)
If the Chinese people want Taiwan to be a part of China so much, but don’t care what that means exactly, why not simply have the PRC declare that Taiwan is part of China right now (okay, they do that already), so presto! Problem solved, everybody goes home happy. Taiwan can do the same with respect to independence.[/quote]
First of all I’m not sure if Volkstaat wants to unite with European Country X. Northern Ireland wants to be united with UK and Crimea wants to be united with Russia. ROC (according to the orthodox Roc-ers) wants to be united by China.
The second part of your question is still unsolved but that question shouldn’t affect the validity of the Crimea/Northern Ireland Model. The Crimea/Northern Ireland Model pertains to the roc question, and can be implemented irrespective of the timeline of Taiwan’s eventual independence.
[quote=“sofun”][quote=“Zhengzhou2010”]
To my knowledge, I’m the only pro-1C2S person (PRC and a Taiwan SAR) who posts here and I’d certainly welcome a robust discussion on the merits. I take it though, that you are talking about a 1C2S model where a ROC SAR exists that on a small portion of Taiwan or the outlying isles and where the rest of Taiwan become a separate ROT. Under this model the much diminished ROC SAR would be part of the PRC like the HK and Macao SARs?[/quote]
Well sort of like that, but still, could we focus on the ROC problem? Irrespective of different expectations of what Taiwan will become in 100 years or 200 years, you’d still need to solve the ROC problem. And the ROC problem is a relatively simple one.
Ideally, since the Chinese on both sides of the strait are already in good terms, I think it is China’s responsibility to provide a sizeable area for the KMT/ROC to relocate to. Now, I’m saying is that if China is unwilling to provide the bare minimum, then I think Taiwan could be generous by allocating an roc zone.
How big, where, how to operate etc would be questions that I hope forum members would contribute.[/quote]
Ok, as for location I think the best conceptual options are: (1) an offshore island like Jinmen, Mazu or Penghu (Taiping air DYT/SKKs are tempting but clearly too small); and (2) places where KMT/Blue support is the strongest (including parts of Northern Taiwan, Miaoli or Eastern Taiwan).
Jinmen and Mazu are contiguous and separate territories, close to the mainland and very KMT/Blue. Either or both could be home to the ROC SAR and the “loyalists” (doesn’t seem like the right word to me, I prefer Chiangists). They will be quite overcrowded when you factor in the native population, but I figure many ROC SAR “passport” holder may also choose to physically reside in Xiamen or Fuzhou (both of which I’ve heard are very nice and moveable cities).
I am mainly talking about a minor territorial cession in which the Chinese loyalists can comfortably build their society to be integrated with China, just like Crimea prefers to be absorbed into Russia and Northern Island prefers the UK.
Consider the alternative where Taiwan continues Taiwanization, then the Chinese loyalists will probably still do everything to sabotage Taiwan, for generations. The cost of this is probably much higher than a Crimea/Northern Ireland model.[/quote]
They’d still sabotage it. Many Russian loyalists in Crimea want other parts of the Ukraine to be annexed by Russia as well.[/quote]
There is a risk of that possibility, but I think it’s manageable and unlikely. Demarcation can regulate such activities. And because if Taiwan won’t sabotage ROC anymore either, I tend to believe there is less motivation for them to sabotage Taiwan. It will be left for China and Taiwan to sort out the Tw-Cn relations.
In a Vatican City-like arrangement, there will be no loss of power of KMT ( Fa Tong法統), and no tampering of the ideology and history. All Chinese, whether they are pro-ccp or dissidents, can come to worship Sun Yat Sun’s revolutions, and 5000 years of civilization. Neither the Chinese government nor the much hated pro-Japan Taiwan will pose an existential threat to the Chinese Vatican aptly named “Chinese Taipei.”
Nope. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I’m proud that the ROC is maturing even more as a democracy where the opposition has a real shot of taking the Executive and Legislative Yuan. All countries have done bad and all countries have done good. The ROC has done good.
Let the DPP take power for 4 years. See if they can do better.
roc could negotiate with Taiwan for a right to operate within an ROC-SAR, subject to terms and conditions. And this is what a Crimea/Northern Ireland model would have entailed.
Without a contract though, anybody can claim to have a right to a piece of geographical feature, but such claim is never guaranteed and is never perpetual.
Image if roc could claim that it owns the right to X, yet loses the right to Y, at your whim, without a contract. Then by the same token China or Russia, or ISIS could also do so the same way. That’d be totally non-sense. That’d be a chaotic world that is contradictory to a harmonious society.
Bit of a problem: how can Taiwan negotiate if they are under China’s boot? China expects nothing less than humiliating, total surrender from the renegade province and the corrupt nationalists.
Which is my question: if the loyalists control the Government and positions of power in the economy and society, how are they going to be convinced that they can move to say, Kinmen, and still hold the pan by the handle, as we say in Spanish -still be the ones setting the rules, in power, I mean. Rulers need someone to rule.
As to their power base, one has to look at today’s papers… eekkk… or Hsia’s “jokes” in Guangzhou’s meeting… ugh.
My question: Why does the ROC, who won WWII and the right to rule Taiwan have to move anywhere? Why can’t the Independence supporters move somewhere else and establish their own independent country?
[quote=“Icon”]Bit of a problem: how can Taiwan negotiate if they are under China’s boot? China expects nothing less than humiliating, total surrender from the renegade province and the corrupt nationalists.
Which is my question: if the loyalists control the Government and positions of power in the economy and society, how are they going to be convinced that they can move to say, Kinmen (Jinmen), and still hold the pan by the handle, as we say in Spanish -still be the ones setting the rules, in power, I mean. Rulers need someone to rule.
As to their power base, one has to look at today’s papers… eekkk… or Hsia’s “jokes” in Guangzhou’s meeting… ugh.[/quote]
True and I agree. That’s typically solved by immigration. Use Singapore as an example, emigration is offset by immigration. You’d see ruler frequently remind the ruled to “become competitive. (aka don’t complain otherwise we replace you)” Bureaucrats stay affluent and risk-free.
It’s basically herding, a simple concept. And the so-called Service Trade Agreement (where service providers are traded, i.e, immigrants) that Ma tried to implement is exactly that.
So, a ROC SAR could easily import service providers to form tarpapers. Plus, these new immigrant/PR must behave to "stay competitive"in the job market, otherwise they’d get replaced by the authorities.
I think you’re taking the thread a little too seriously. Well, more seriously than I can anyway.
But what fun is a discussion board if we can’t wax theoretical about unreal situations? Lol. So hear it goes . . .
The ROC is a government, and 99% of its population, territory and economy are formed by Taiwan. The ROC, through the efforts of its citizenry has opted for democratic rule. Thus if the ROC citizens of Taiwan want to choose to rename, disband, amend or relocate the ROC they can do so through the democratic process (in my view, the Taiwanese electorate has not shown any sustained desire to do so as of yet although who know what the future may bring). While I would never truly advocate so, if the Taiwanese citizens voted to rename Jinmen the “ROC SAR” then who is stop them? China, of course, but now we’re not talking about the ROC, Taiwan and democracy, we’re just taking about pure power and realpolitik.
I think you’re taking the thread a little too seriously. Well, more seriously than I can anyway.
But what fun is a discussion board if we can’t wax theoretical about unreal situations? Lol. So hear it goes . . .
The ROC is a government, and 99% of its population, territory and economy are formed by Taiwan. The ROC, through the efforts of its citizenry has opted for democratic rule. Thus if the ROC citizens of Taiwan want to choose to rename, disband, amend or relocate the ROC they can do so through the democratic process (in my view, the Taiwanese electorate has not shown any sustained desire to do so as of yet although who know what the future may bring). While I would never truly advocate so, if the Taiwanese citizens voted to rename Jinmen the “ROC SAR” then who is stop them? China, of course, but now we’re not talking about the ROC, Taiwan and democracy, we’re just taking about pure power and realpolitik.[/quote]
Okay guys, I know what Dirt’s main point is about. The thing is though, according to Dirt’s logic, PRC also “won” the right to “own” China, and kicked ROC out of China. Yet, now ROC is in good terms of the PRC anyway. So by the same token, Taiwan could also make new arrangement to ROC. Granted that there might be some initial resistance, and disgruntled loyalists. But hey, if ROC can subjugate itself to the PRC, I don’t see why sooner or later it cannot negotiate a Crimea Model with Taiwan.
disclaimer. What the Chinese (KMT and CCP) did to each other was barbaric, and I’m not advocating that. Therefore, the final disposition of the ROC in Taiwan must be negotiated peacefully between Taiwan and ROC, and it must be done CONTRACTUALLY, so that each party cannot use each other as collateral or bargaining chip for a deal with a 3rd party (eg. China, Japan).
As to ROC’s future status in China, that is really up to the Chinese, and beyond the scope of this topic.
