A Drought -- you've got to be friggin' kidding me

[Fox]

No that’s what we call rain. This is what we call drought:

[sandman]

I can see why you have contempt for Taiwan’s troubles.

Contempt for Taiwan’s troubles? On the contrary, it fills me with deep worry and concerm. Contempt for its so-called “leaders?” You are goddamn right ON the money!

[Fox]

@sandman

[quote]I can see why you have contempt for Taiwan’s troubles.

Contempt for Taiwan’s troubles? On the contrary, it fills me with deep worry and concerm. Contempt for its so-called “leaders?” You are goddamn right ON the money![/quote]

You just don’t understand sandman. Please stop thinking.

[Mucha_Man]

@Fox

that’s what we call rain.

But this is called a drought by you:

Again, this is rain:

And this is a drought:

[Fox]

Work it out my good man. It’s a tangled web indeed.

Drought in Australia:

Drought in Taiwan:

[yuli]

[quote=“Mucha Man”]Again, this is rain
And this is a drought[/quote]
And this is how our very own version of “Fox news” started:

@Fox

After the longest spell of rain in the island’s history, now we are told we are in the midst of a drought. Is that possible? Fire the dude in charge of water resources. It has rained every day almost for eight long months. There is a thread dedicated to it on Forumosa that bemoans it with avengence and now we are told their will be water restrictions. Last time, 8 years ago there really was a drought because that was the last time northern Taiwan saw three fine days in a row. What a miserable bunch of leaders this island really has.

@Mucha Man

Fox, just go up and look at any reservoir. No need to speculate. It’s there before your eyes how low our water levels are. It can rain for a month but if it doesn’t rain in the right places, and if the rain is not exceptionally hard then it doesn’t make much more than a spit in the ocean.

Don’t confuse the OP with facts*) Mucha Man!
*) A drought? No kidding

Have a nice vacation on the wetcoast (say hi to Vancouver Island for me if you happen to get that way)!

[Mucha_Man]

@Fox

Work it out my good man. It’s a tangled web indeed.

Indeed, it is. You have a good drought this summer. Hope it’s all over when I get back.

[Mucha_Man]

@yuli

…Have a nice vacation on the wetcoast (say hi to Vancouver Island for me if you happen to get that way)!

Thank you. I may take the ferry back from Valdez to Vancouver Island. Same route as the cruise ships but a tenth the price.

[yuli]

@Mucha Man

[quote=“yuli”]…Have a nice vacation on the wetcoast (say hi to Vancouver Island for me if you happen to get that way)!

Thank you. I may take the ferry back from Valdez to Vancouver Island. Same route as the cruise ships but a tenth the price. [/quote]
Now that you mention it… if i recall correctly, you change ships in Prince Rupert.
(Now there’s a part of the world that never had to worry much about water shortages)

[Fox]

[quote=“yuli”][quote=“Muzha Man”]Again, this is rain
And this is a drought[/quote]
And this is how our very own version of “Fox news” started:

@Fox

After the longest spell of rain in the island’s history, now we are told we are in the midst of a drought. Is that possible? Fire the dude in charge of water resources. It has rained every day almost for eight long months. There is a thread dedicated to it on Forumosa that bemoans it with avengence and now we are told their will be water restrictions. Last time, 8 years ago there really was a drought because that was the last time northern Taiwan saw three fine days in a row. What a miserable bunch of leaders this island really has.[/quote]

I think you’ll find it was a more than reasonable statement, but you guys are scared of the facts. Taipei had 230 rainy days in over the last year March to April. The average number of rainy days is 165. Do the math. 230 - 165/165=65 therefore 65/165x100=40%. Taipei had 40% more rainy days than on average. To get 40% more than average you would have to be a substantial outlier on a bell curve. And here is the clincher the median number of rainy days and the average number of rainy days in Taiwan are almost identical.

So here we have a drought with a probable record number of rainy days. I’ll leave you to work out if it my statement were hyperbole or not.

Meanwhile the drought continues outside.

I think I know why too. In a La Nina event the high pressure system of the north pacific which is normally just over Taiwan is farther north. This allows wet weather from the colder sea temperatures in the southern Pacific to travel north and drop continual rain on Taiwan. Usually the North Pacific high pressure system is farther south and Taiwan gets more sunny days and fewer rainy days.

[yuli]

@Fox

you guys are scared of the facts.

The facts? I see one item here that you present as fact:

Taipei had 230 rainy days in over the last year March to April. The average number of rainy days is 165.

What is a “rainy day”? A day with at least some rainfall at some time during 24 hours? A day with rainfall for 24 hours? Light rain? Heavy rain?
Since that is not clear, people in charge of water supplies usually don’t do math with “rainy days” but with “amount of precipitation” (usually measured in mm over a given period of time).
And the reason for that is that reservoirs are not filled by “a high number of rainy days” but by “a sufficient amount of rainfall” distributed over a reasonable amount of time.

So, let us do it the way it needs to be done:

1. What are the precipitation figures for Taiwan for, say, the last half year?
2. “Taipei” is not the same as “Taiwan” - what are the precipitation figures for other parts of Taiwan - at least for the central and southern part of the west side of Taiwan?
   In other words, give us figures for at least half a dozen different and representative locations on the island, not just one.
3. Water shortages are related to low levels of water in reservoirs - what are the water levels in the reservoirs?

@Fox

Do the math.

Sure - assuming we have the data we need…

[Fox]

@yuli

[quote=“Fox”]you guys are scared of the facts.

The facts? I see one item here that you present as fact:

Taipei had 230 rainy days in over the last year March to April. The average number of rainy days is 165.

What is a “rainy day”? A day with at least some rainfall at some time during 24 hours? A day with rainfall for 24 hours? Light rain? Heavy rain?
Since that is not clear, people in charge of water supplies usually don’t do math with “rainy days” but with “amount of precipitation” (usually measured in mm over a given period of time).
And the reason for that is that reservoirs are not filled by “a high number of rainy days” but by “a sufficient amount of rainfall” distributed over a reasonable amount of time.

So, let us do it the way it needs to be done:

1. What are the precipitation figures for Taiwan for, say, the last half year?
2. “Taipei” is not the same as “Taiwan” - what are the precipitation figures for other parts of Taiwan - at least for the central and southern part of the west side of Taiwan?
   In other words, give us figures for at least half a dozen different and representative locations on the island, not just one.
3. Water shortages are related to low levels of water in reservoirs - what are the water levels in the reservoirs?

@Fox

Do the math.

Sure - assuming we have the data we need… [/quote]

That is just the 40% more than average days with rain. You can look that up at the CWB. You also avoid the fact that the Koppen-Gieger weather index used to define climate says that high rainfall is more than 1750 to 2000mm annually. How do you explain the 3654mm, 2156mm, 2846 mm and 2000mm in Alsihan, Kauhsiung, Pingtung and Taitung. What is it with all these places in the south that are suffering from drought having more than high-rainfall on a standard index? Please explain. Explain it.

How do you explain Pingtung in the heart of the drought having 105mm so far this year when to this time in the previous three years it had only had 66mm, 85mm, and 48mm. That’s 60% more rain than the average of the previous three years – in the heart of the drought. Or Taitung with 224mm and the previous three years to the same time with 136, 186, and 211 at an average of 178mm. This year had 26% more rain than the average of the previous three years. These are the facts that you run from, because you cannot explain them.
You have accepted nonsense from a bunch of incompetent water managers on faith without the slightest bit of critical thinking. Shame. Shame. Shame.

[yuli]

@Fox

That is just the 40% more than average days with rain. You can look that up at the CWB.

I couldn’t care less about that data - it is of no use to me, neither in this discussion nor in general.

You also avoid the fact that the Koppen-Gieger weather index used to define climate says that high rainfall is more than 1750 to 2000mm annually.

And you avoid the fact that Mars is smaller than Earth - but no sweat, neither the Koppen-Geiger Index nor the size of Mars have anything to do with my challenge to your assertion.

How do you explain the 3654mm, 2156mm, 2846 mm and 2000mm in Alshan, Kauhsiung, Pingtung and Taitung.

What are you talking about: Annual average rainfall? Last year’s rainfall? Rainfall in the last 12 months? Rainfall in any other time period?

What is it with all these places in the south that are suffering from drought having more than high-rainfall on a standard index? Please explain. Explain it.

What is it? I am sorry i don’t understand your question, My question is: has there been enough rainfall in the south to fill the reservoirs?

How do you explain Pingtung in the heart of the drought having 105mm so far this year when to this time in the previous three years it had only had 66mm, 85mm, and 48mm.

I don’t explain anything, since i can’t find any of the data you are showing here - would you mind telling me where you found them?

These are the facts that you run from

I am not running from anything. I am challenging your assertion that Taiwan has had enough rainfall recently to fill the reservoirs and that the low water levels in the reservoirs are therefore entirely due water mismanagement.

And since i don’t know what the facts are , i make use of pages like this to inform myself:
focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_ … 1104280025
… and pages like this:
cwb.gov.tw/V6e/statistics/monthlyData/mD.php - from here i have extracted, for example, the following data for the most recent 6 months:

[quote]Rainfall in mm
Loc Ttun Kaoh Tnan Alis Tchn Dans Taip
2010:
Nov 47.7 13.0 54.0 87.8 20.7 89.5 127.3
Dec 12.6 11.5 14.5 64.9 27.4 100.1 63.4
sub 60.3 24.5 68.5 152.7 48.1 189.6 190.7
2011:
Jan 14.9 7.7 6.7 133.8 35.4 108.6 71.9
Feb 16.6 3.5 7.7 62.1 27.6 104.1 68.0
Mar 11.1 8.0 4.7 93.8 33.2 118.2 119.1
Apr 61.6 29.5 26.0 28.7 5.1 51.6 27.4
sub 104.2 48.7 45.1 318.4 101.3 382.5 286.4
6 month period:
tot 164.5 73.2 113.6 471.1 149.4 572.1 477.1[/quote]
(I hope i haven’t made any errors in transferring data and calculating totals - if i have, please tell me and i’ll fix them)
Now, even these numbers don’t tell me enough yet - so i will consider information like this:
chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/nati … t-rain.htm
(I’ve seen more information but did not make a record of the URLs, except for the pages listed here: A drought? No kidding

So i’ve done most of your homework. So what now?

But, actually, i realize this thread is not about facts (let alone resembling a scientific approach) but an exercise in “venting”,
so i don’t mind it at all if you don’t follow the road i’ve pointed out here.

[Fox]

Here is the reference. It’s called the Central Weather Bureau.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/index.htm

You only have to count the days and add up the numbers.

There is only one explanation for running out of water in a country that has so much rain – mismanagement. And it is not like this is a freak occurrence it is well known as the interdecadal oscillation. It is known to happen every 11 years approximately. Taiwan has had incidents of poor water capture in: 1899-1902, 1906-1910, 1913-1916, 1946, 1645-55, 1960-1965, 1978-1980, and 1993-1997 and 2002. So if incompetence doesn’t explain it what does.

Mean while the drought continues with light rain outside at the moment.

[urodacus]

1645? please confirm!

[Charlie_Jack]

@yuli

[quote]How do you explain the 3654mm, 2156mm, 2846 mm and 2000mm in Alshan, Kauhsiung, Pingdong and Taidong.

What are you talking about: Annual average rainfall? Last year’s rainfall? Rainfall in the last 12 months? Rainfall in any other time period?[/quote]
I’m pretty sure Fox is talking about last year’s rainfall (2010).

I found monthly rainfall tables, with dropdown menus for month and year, on the Central Weather Bureau site, on this page: cwb.gov.tw/V6e/statistics/monthlyData/mD.php

I couldn’t find annual totals, so I added them up by month. I didn’t see Pingtung on there, so I guess Fox got his data from a different place from the page that I linked.

Anyway, here’s my twelve-month tally for 2010 for the other three locations:

Alishan: 3,654.6 mm
Kaohsiung: 2,160.7 mm
Taitung: 1,973.8 mm

Those three look pretty close to Fox’s.

Oh, one more thing: I didn’t round anything off. I just entered the numbers as they were and added them on the little calculator that comes with Windows XP.

Edit: Here’s what I got for Taipei for 2010, from the page linked above: 2,278.3 mm

Here are the monthly numbers for Taipei for 2010 (it’s possible I made a mistake; if you want, you can check them):

Jan. 105.3 mm
Feb. 232.6 mm
Mar. 66.5 mm
Apr. 112.5 mm
May 183.9 mm
Jun. 419.6 mm
Jul. 89.1 mm
Aug. 388.5 mm
Sep. 144.2 mm
Oct. 345.4 mm
Nov. 127.3 mm
Dec. 63.4 mm

[Fox]

@Charlie Jack

[quote=“yuli”] [quote]How do you explain the 3654mm, 2156mm, 2846 mm and 2000mm in Alshan, Kauhsiung, Pingdong and Taidong.

What are you talking about: Annual average rainfall? Last year’s rainfall? Rainfall in the last 12 months? Rainfall in any other time period?[/quote]
I’m pretty sure Fox is talking about last year’s rainfall (2010).

I found monthly rainfall tables, with dropdown menus for month and year, on the Central Weather Bureau site, on this page: cwb.gov.tw/V6e/statistics/monthlyData/mD.php

I couldn’t find annual totals, so I added them up by month. I didn’t see Pingdong on there, so I guess Fox got his data from a different place from the page that I linked.

Anyway, here’s my twelve-month tally for 2010 for the other three locations:

Alishan: 3,654.6 mm
Kaohsiung: 2,160.7 mm
Taidong: 1,973.8 mm

Those three look pretty close to Fox’s.

Oh, one more thing: I didn’t round anything off. I just entered the numbers as they were and added them on the little calculator that comes with Windows XP.[/quote]

Thanks CJ. The Pingtung one is on there too. Please stop thinking.

[antarcticbeech]

There is no point posting any data without defining the word ‘drought’. Fox is talking about a meteorological drought. Others, like mucha man and yuli, are talking about a hydrological drought.

[yuli]

[quote=“Charlie Jack”]Anyway, here’s my twelve-month tally for 2010 for the other three locations:

Alishan: 3,654.6 mm
Kaohsiung: 2,160.7 mm
Taitung: 1,973.8 mm

Those three look pretty close to Fox’s.[/quote]
Perfect - now look at my half-year figures, and you can see that the rainfall in those locations in the last half year is MUCH LESS THAN HALF of those figures - not surprising as such, since most rain in southern Taiwan falls between May and October. But the figures are low, in my opinion.

And now let’s ask Fox to consider this, please:
chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/nati … Taiwan.htm

[yuli]

@antarcticbeech

There is no point posting any data without defining the word ‘drought’. Fox is talking about a meteorological drought. Others, like mucha man and yuli, are talking about a hydrological drought.

I like “sociological drought” much better in this context, because i think the problem is one of people, not one of the weather/climate.

Edit:

Thanks, antarcticbeech, for the added info to consider:
pdc.org/iweb/drought.jsp?subg=1

Add to that Charlie Jack’s “socieo-ecomic drought”:
library.thinkquest.org/16132/htm … types.html

And the page Mucha Man had mentioned before;
drought.unl.edu/whatis/concept.htm