What then? Like every other pro-Blue, you just don’t get it. Steve Young just served the divorce papers on a half century of marriage. What then? It’s obvious.[/quote]
The above is what’s called a “rhetorical question”, Vorkosigan. I didn’t ask you for an answer, since I gave my own:
If that happens, the United States will be out of threats. It only has one decision to make at that point: pull out, or don’t pull out. So for all intent and purposes, we might only be a few months (perhaps a year) away from Taiwan falling outside the US sphere of influence.
From the pan-Blue point of view, they’ve seen CSB dance away with pushing the US’s policy boundaries for 3 years with little to no consequences. And isn’t it already very obvious that pan-Blues are discounting the risks of a mainland invasion right now? They’re being asked to placate an angry but ineffectual foreign sponsor, at the cost of increased cross-strait tensions and a fortune in terms of government expenditure.
I’m not making any predictions here, by the way. I’m not in Ma’s head; I have no idea exactly which direction he’s going to go with this. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the pan-Blues folded on this (relatively insignificant) issue and agreed to the arms bill in the next 3-6 months. But I’d just note that this decision would’ve been a clear no-brainer 5, 10, 25 years ago, and the fact that it’s been dragged out to this degree just shows the changing political climate on Taiwan.
That divorce, Vorkosigan, is coming sooner rather than later.
From the Blue perspective they have been pulling their own weight all the way from 1947 when it agreed to a loan from the USA instead of arms delivery. The USA has not illustrated in recent years that it really views China as a “threat” or a “strategic competitor.” They are in collusion with the PRC over NK.
Because conventional weapons are not good tools in many of the military scenario when the ROC facing the PRC, some of the war games have Taiwan transferring their platforms to Guam in case of military attack. Why bother buying these weapons, when the we basically give them back to the USA during a war?
Has the USA approve of Taiwan pursuing a nuclear program yet? Because only a nuclear option is a true deterrent to military conflict.
geez going back to 1947 now? i suppose it’s all stillwell’s fault.
you can’t get a ride on the bus without paying your fare. taiwan has gotten away with it almost as long as they can, the driver is pissed and ready to kick them off. time to pay up or get off and walk
USA put ROC in sh*t creek without a paddle in 1979 when they could not get enough 3rd world and 1st world support in the UN and when the USA officially recognized PRC.
Just like when you don’t pay a taxi driver for getting you lost and letting you out at destination “unknown”, same principle applies here.
Now if the driver keeps asking for money in hopes of finding the route again, that’s just a scam. Payment on delivery, not on promises.
taiwan has been riding the bus happily enough. a few route changes along the way but it has always gotten there. this is not a “fly by night” company bus you’re talking about now. when they say it gets there, you better listen. if you don’t like it, ring the bell and get off, otherwise fork over the fare and stop mooching.
well, let the US put the stop on Chinese imports, and you’ll see what will happen. They are the world biggest economy, and they will still be on the top 2 for a long time.
There are a number of US defense and civilian companies here on the island that provide support, maintenance, upgrade and training to both Taiwanese military and civilian military forces.
Each one of these people daily has to endure the “Taiwan Shuffle” on a daily basis while trying to get their daily work, which is done on a contract basis accomplished.
What you are seeing here on a grand level has been the SOP for the island for quite a few years. The support contractors have been complaining about it to Washington and Washington has tried to work these problems out. To no avail. Stalling payments, refusing to do timely, and required, equipment upgrades, using out-dated tech data and a number of other head-banging standard delay tactics has severely weakened the level of support from vital service providers. People are just at their wits end in dealing with “business as usual” by the half-wits and numb-nut know nothings who get into positions by means other than knowledge or ability.
Mr. Young has given a loud public voice to this syndrome. I hope Taiwan hears and begins work to change this problem.
Hyperinflation in the United States, a global economic depression of historical proportions, massive unemployment, the spread of war and disease? In other words, mutual assured economic destruction.
Exactly what TI supporters would like to see happen. It is selfish politics at its best on Taiwan, “If I can’t be happy and get TI, the rest of the world should suffer with me” mentality at work here.
Hyperinflation in the United States, a global economic depression of historical proportions, massive unemployment, the spread of war and disease? In other words, mutual assured economic destruction.[/quote]
I think you discount far too easily how simple it is to move cheap manufacturing from one third world country to the next.
Young’s reasons why Taiwan must stop delaying and buy now are 1) the PLA is fatally outpacing us, and 2) China might have even more influence with whomever comes into office once Bush is gone. But since most Taiwanese seem to believe 1) that the island is fucked in any case should it come to blows, and 2) that Bush and his people are liars, I don’t see that Young’s appeal will conduce to action. His statements have already been spun by the Blue media along predictable lines, as we can all see in the papers. The familiar old notion, which Young endorses in the press conference, that all Taiwan has to do with its military spending is ensure that the PLA will pay a serious price if it invades may sound good to the generals in Washington, but it doesn’t do much for people here, clearly. Unless someone on Forumosa has special information about policy changes that doesn’t appear in the newspapers and wants to let the rest of us in on it, I don’t see what the big deal is. So Young is refreshingly direct and can joke around in Chinese, so what? Tell us something we don’t know.
Hyperinflation in the United States, a global economic depression of historical proportions, massive unemployment, the spread of war and disease? In other words, mutual assured economic destruction.[/quote]
I think you discount far too easily how simple it is to move cheap manufacturing from one third world country to the next.[/quote]
Good morning VIETNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAM!
Have to agree MJB (hey that rhymes).
Let the Chinese go get their hooks into Africa, smash a few rebellions, set up a few paper President/Generals and build up infrastructure, so that other countries can go in and make stuff on the cheap.
[quote=“cctang”] If that happens, the United States will be out of threats. It only has one decision to make at that point: pull out, or don’t pull out. So for all intent and purposes, we might only be a few months (perhaps a year) away from Taiwan falling outside the US sphere of influence.[/quote]
Your problem cctang, is that you’ve come to believe your that own propaganda forms a rational basis for analysis. You need to compartmentalize your thinking a little better – I suspect a lack of academic training on your part. You haven’t yet learned to thrust away the what-I-want! when you analyze the what-is-out-there!. This isn’t about US vs. Chen or US vs. Taiwan. This is the US judgment on the Blues that has been a long time coming…
…What you’ve missed here, cc, is that the US has very clearly indicated that it does not disapprove of Chen and the DPP, whatever short-term spikes there may be in the relationship. Young made that very clear in his remarks, pointed, so that even people deep in the pro-Blue fantasy reality can’t miss it. The Bush Administration relies for its support on conservatives who dislike China and have excellent relations with the DPP. Every time the Blues obstruct the arms purchase – every time they promise to let it pass and then block it – they put a nail in their own coffin. Conservatives already have your number: in writing earlier this year conservative Taiwan analyst John Tkacik used the term “pro-China” to describe you guys, and when Ma Ying-jeou was in the US, conservatives attacked him. Now the Blues have turned around and confirmed everything that the conservatives have said by repeatedly and publicly breaking their promises. Everything the Blues do confirms that in every way the Blues are pro-China. See the problem? It is not Chen Shui-bian who is pushing US boundaries here. It is the KMT and its allies. Change may be glacial, but it does come…
You bet, only you’ve got your finger on the wrong marriage, cctang. Mene Mene tikal…
Hyperinflation in the United States, a global economic depression of historical proportions, massive unemployment, the spread of war and disease? In other words, mutual assured economic destruction.[/quote]
I think you discount far too easily how simple it is to move cheap manufacturing from one third world country to the next.[/quote]
It might be alright to move, but it won’t be simple or cheap. You’ll have to renegotiate deals, build buildings, train workers, deal with infrastructure (or the lack of it), bribe officials, etc…
It takes time and money to do it, while your competitors on mainland are going to clean your clock. Of course, US government is now so dependent on China to buy treasury bills, that It would be crazy to stop the trade.
BTW, businessmen from Taiwan invested in Vietnam and other SE Asia countries years ago, and their competitors on mainland did much better.
Vorkosigan said: …What you’ve missed here, cc, is that the US has very clearly indicated that it does not disapprove of Chen and the DPP, whatever short-term spikes there may be in the relationship. Young made that very clear in his remarks, pointed, so that even people deep in the pro-Blue fantasy reality can’t miss it. The Bush Administration relies for its support on conservatives who dislike China and have excellent relations with the DPP. Every time the Blues obstruct the arms purchase – every time they promise to let it pass and then block it – they put a nail in their own coffin. Conservatives already have your number: in writing earlier this year conservative Taiwan analyst John Tkacik used the term “pro-China” to describe you guys, and when Ma Ying-jeou was in the US, conservatives attacked him. Now the Blues have turned around and confirmed everything that the conservatives have said by repeatedly and publicly breaking their promises. Everything the Blues do confirms that in every way the Blues are pro-China. See the problem? It is not Chen Shui-bian who is pushing US boundaries here. It is the KMT and its allies. Change may be glacial, but it does come…
CC said: [quote]That divorce, Vorkosigan, is coming sooner rather than later.[/quote]
Vorkosigan said: You bet, only you’ve got your finger on the wrong marriage, cctang. Mene Mene tikal…
v says: CCT is not a blue, he is a red. The Blues are pro-China I agree. What can the US do about it if the Taiwan citizenry chooses a Blue president who negotiates closer and closer relations with the PRC? PS 666 /www.bible-codes.org/flash_mene-bible_code-prophecy–part-2.htm
Or did you mean “bated breath”? 
