Analysis: Taiwan's future depends on Taiwanese will


I agree. However, how many of your neighbors have even seen a .38? (TV does not count!)
Taiwan seems to be a, “Let someone else do it”, society when it comes to national defense…


There’s a culture of air guns in Taiwan, which I gather has something to do with the sort-of-compulsory military service. They’ll know how to aim and how to squeeze the trigger.

I’ve shot a pellet gun (handgun style) and I’ve shot a real handgun. There’s a difference, but there’s a lot of similarity, and the similarities outweigh the differences. Mostly it’s the recoil, and you can get used to that fast.

A revolver is reliable. A semi-auto is fussier, which is why I suggest a .38 and not a 9mm. (A semi-auto is easier when it works, though.) Don’t burden them with questions of weapon maintenance. It’s the battle tactics that really matter. Perhaps a properly designed video game?

(No, paintball as we know it won’t help. Wrong emphasis. Wrong kind of battle. And the MPs would notice.)

When we drone-drop the guns, we can also drone-drop the training materials. The point is to keep it simple. The NRA has some good stuff, but it’s in English and dwells too much on the legal aspects.


I like the ‘drone drop’ idea! Even so, I have not seen a ‘fighting spirit’ anywhere. Sunflowers were content to sit, and effective. However, dodging bullets, shedding blood, and counting casualties, were not part of their “Keep Taiwan Free” dream.


OK, now I have a bigger sample size. Some cousins and uncles just told me they can still do it.


This is laughably untrue.

The U.S. Navy has 288 battle force ships, of which typically a third are underway at any given time. The U.S. Navy has 10 aircraft carriers, nine amphibious assault ships, 22 cruisers, 62 destroyers, 17 frigates and 72 submarines. In addition to ships, the U.S. Navy has 3,700 aircraft, making it the second largest air force in the world. At 323,000 active and 109,000 personnel, it is also the largest navy in terms of manpower.

China’s PLAN: The PLAN currently has one aircraft carrier, three amphibious transports, 25 destroyers, 42 frigates, eight nuclear attack submarines and approximately 50 conventional attack submarines. The PLAN is manned by 133,000 personnel, including the Chinese Marine Corps, which consists of two brigades of 6,000 marines each.

The People’s Liberation Army Navy Air Force provides fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters for China’s new aircraft carrier, helicopters for surface ships, and shore-based fighter, attack and patrol aircraft. The PLANAF has 650 aircraft, including J-15 carrier-based fighters, J-10 multirole fighters, Y-8 maritime patrol aircraft , and Z-9 antisubmarine warfare aircraft.


From what I read, Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia simply have to attack China’s ocean going oil transports. That’s very easy with Patriot missiles and other stuff: WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. State Department has approved the possible sale to Taiwan of spare parts for F-16 fighter planes and other military aircraft worth up to $330 million, the Pentagon said on Monday.

U.S. military sales to self-ruled Taiwan, which China claims as its sacred territory under its “one China” policy, is an irritant in the relations between the world’s two largest economies.

“This proposed sale will contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security and defensive capability of the recipient, which has been and continues to be an important force for political stability, military balance, and economic progress in the region,” the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a statement.


That is all well and good.
However, without ‘on the ground’ resistance from the folks who live there, the 'We are Taiwanese" folks, other countries will not just jump in. KMT/CCP has a strong, voting, base. President Tsai does not have enough support to actively challenge Xi. Money ‘trumps’ national sovereignty. Ask the hotel folks who cried about lost tourists from PRC… Ma was elected, twice. Ko is popular.


From what I have read the number of Chinese naval ships exceeds that of the U.S. In terms of tonnage the U.S. still has a big lead…and no need to mention quality.

My point is that China is very capable of quickly overwhelming this small island. Each year there military gets stronger and a major deterrent to any Taiwan allies which might want to help.


Indeed they keep crying. For example, dwindling sales in big malls -like the bankrupt Death Star, now for sale- is caused by lack of uploads of Mainland tourists, as per local news. If only the government was more reasonable…Taiwan’s go that is.

Ma and company insist the PRC ID card for Taiwanese is no different than a green card or any other foreign resident ID…

Etc. Ad nauseam.


There is no “Mainland”.
As long as folks, who live on the island, continue to use CKS terminology, there is no independent “Taiwan”.
There is the “PRC”, and there is “Taiwan”. Simple.


The environmentalists will shit themselves with rage.


So which part concerns you again? You are literally all over the board. You want the Taiwan Sunflowers to fight the Chinese navy with .38 specials, and you’re concerned about the oil spilling in the South China Sea that will starve China’s economy and military?

And, the .38s will be drone dropped? By whom?


A certain country will fly over to paper bomb with post-dated million dollar cheques and no shot will be fired.


This I’m with you on.

However, given the US air, sea and ground based firepower that already exists on the island, it should be enough for the Chinese Navy to back away from. Being bloodied by the scrawny Taiwanese would certainly empower the other South China Sea nations to move up a weight class class or two and take a shot at the local loudmouth. China is be no means the regional naval power. Big J has that belt. One mustn’t measure naval power in number of boats that float.


Here’s another take. They can’t both be right…


The future of Taiwan and her ability to stop China , depends on the USA, Japan etc, drawing a line in the sand to prevent Military intervention. I think that may well happen. Before 2016 , it would have been doubtful. China is , however, very, very, very patient.


“Line in the sand.” Ozymandias ruined that phrase for everyone.