The guy basically tells you where to invest in three different regions/countries of the world. I’m not a big investor, but that’s one takeaway from this article if he’s right (and I tend to agree with much of what he wrote).
Have been waiting to drop this article somewhere. May as well be here:
Love the Forumosa crowd! 
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Excellent article. I believe there’s an additional reason that support for Ukraine helps defend Taiwan. There’s lots of talk regarding psychological warfare against Taiwan by China. I think the dismal performance by Russia against Ukraine has a very strong effect of scaring China, making China think twice about invading Taiwan, and to make their citizens not so confident of an easy victory over Taiwan. If Russia loses this war, Taiwan will benefit immensely.
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Why this stuff is true, all that really matters for me is what Xi’s perception is.
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When China abruptly changed their covid policy due to growing anger in the population, this reminded me that throughout history, kings and dictators have always been very aware of what their citizens think and feel. I’m not sure why Xi would be an exception to what has been true historically (even recent China history).
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I thought it was an interesting read @marasan . There is a lot of conflicting thought on these matters. This analysis combines the conflicting views I have been hearing into cohesion.
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Is that why they changed policy?
We dont know.
Its a complete black box, we really dont know what China’s equation is . Although I do agree that in theory shoud be good for Taiwan as the Western world has shown more resolve that expected and its a good advertisment for US military technology.
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We dont even know how much information is getting to Xi and what kind of echo chamber he is in,
Both Trump and Biden diplomats have concluded that conversations with the Chinese side are not making it to Xi
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That"s how I interpreted it. Complete capitulation and weakness in the face of quickly intensifying public outrage . But I guess there’s a better thread for this.
The economy had been a mess for months and people had been despondent for nearly 6 months.
If true, this is perhaps unsurprising, as the contents of their conversations are unlikely to conclude with loudly affirming the great rejuvenation of the glorious Chinese nation, or whatever Xi-discourse is required nowadays. 
Guy
Yeah you could suggest that people dont want to tell him what he doesnt want to hear. So much of the decision making had been bizarre.
But on the other hand, they have been making good sound decision making this year. Especially in economy and science. I dont know if there has been some kind of internal shake-up.
Who knows? Its a complete black box.
Just my original point was that should be cautious of ‘action A will cause China to do B’ thinking. As we really dont know
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This is so moronic. You cant ‘take over’ TSMC.
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China hasn’t invaded anyone lately
Australia must be happy, the Chinese had turned of the taps in recent years
According to who?
Yes, this peacetime big money deal that has no military aspect is a great example (not saying war isn’t good for business, just that this isn’t that)
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Yeah, it’s called peace. what would you prefer, zero contact at all with Russia and China? I imagine sooner or later in that scenario, we’d hear back from them.
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Just take a look at the media and narrative it pushes. Russia Derangement Syndrome and now China Derangement Syndrome. The piece I posted won’t be on the nightly news anytime soon.
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Xinhua? 
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The entire piece:
NANNING, May 25 (Xinhua) – Eleven trade and cooperation project deals worth a total of 10.3 billion yuan (about 1.5 billion U.S. dollars) were inked between Chinese and Australian companies on Thursday.
The projects cover areas such as resources, food and medicine, according to the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade Guangxi Committee.
The deals were signed at an RCEP trade and investment fair, which was held in both Australia and south China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region to promote Sino-Australian trade and investment.
Both China and Australia are members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest free trade deal, which also includes 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, as well as Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and New Zealand. It entered into force on Jan. 1, 2022.
Sui Guohua, vice chair of the regional government of Guangxi, said that Guangxi is utilizing its unique location to deepen cooperation with RCEP members. She called on Guangxi and Australia to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation and dig deep into business opportunities brought by the RCEP. ■
My comment:
What derangement do you see in here? Should let the Chinese starve and fall into economic chaos? How does that benefit Asia in general? Maybe the problem here is the level if competency in normal people who follow geopolitics, who need to see the larger picture and not simply what’s in their best interests or what’s in their backyard right just now.
