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Khabib Nurmagomedov-Justin Gaethje Goes Over 2.5 Rounds (-132)

Nurmagomedov is 28-0 for a reason, and despite what people thought about his bout with Gleison Tibau, “The Eagle” has officially lost exactly one single round on the scorecards in 12 UFC appearances. There is little in the way of evidence, whether on tape or on paper, that shows that Gaethje will be able to thwart the constant chain wrestling of his opponent and stay upright. Nurmagomedov’s last opponent, a man who survived Gaethje’s assault to win by stoppage, recently complained in a title fight, “I can’t get him the f— off of me.” That cry uttered by Dustin Poirier will likely be one echoed by Gaethje as the rounds progress, but the option that this fight hits the over on two-and-a-half rounds is an enticing one. Gaethje has never lost a fight that was the under, and Nurmagomedov has never lost, period. Instead of the easy option of Nurmagomedov at around -310, the round option presents greater value.

If one fighter breaks up this play, it is much more likely to be Gaethje. With 20 finishes across his 22 wins, Gaethje is the author of nine first-round demolitions, and he has stopped 12 men in under 2.5 rounds. Punching out James Vick, Edson Barboza and Donald Cerrone all within one round in consecutive showings leaves a lasting impression about the danger Gaethje poses. In addition to his eye-popping significant strikes landed per minute total of almost eight—the highest of any UFC fighter ever—his leg kicks are deadlier than most to ever grace the cage. His low kicks have played a factor in bouts throughout his career, and Nurmagomedov will have to contend with them for as long as the fight is upright.

The Dagestani champ can put a damper on these leg kicks and Gaethje’s overwhelming volume by doing what he does best. One single takedown attempt is never what Nurmagomedov brings to the table. Instead, the constant pursuit of them, along with continuous mat returns, can stifle even the best strikers in the world. Pound-for-pound talents Poirier and Conor McGregor could barely get off 50 significant strikes against him, and none were truly significant enough to give Nurmagomedov pause. Even when Nurmagomedov let off the gas and decided to stand and trade with Al Iaquinta for the majority of their bout, he held the advantage and kept someone normally known as an effective technical boxer at bay. The ability to adapt is crucial, but his pressure is paramount to winning this fight. Should Gaethje instead advance towards him and keep him at a distance with his back away from the fence, this fight could get a lot more interesting.

Entering this bout, Gaethje’s wrestling credentials are somewhat overstated. A Division I wrestler at the University of Northern Colorado, “The Highlight” was a onetime All-American and placed in the Top 10 nationally once. Although technically the most lauded wrestler Nurmagomedov has faced since the Dagestan native tossed around Kamal Shalorus, the old adage of “there are levels to this game” will likely be more evident in this area than when Gunnar Nelson attempted to outgrapple Demian Maia. Nothing could please Nurmagomedov more than forcing Gaethje to have to fight off takedowns, free himself from the clinch and otherwise exhaust a gas tank that has been questioned in the past.

This lightweight championship unification bout is about as clear-cut of a striker-versus-grappler classic as one could get, and it is indeed compelling. Gaethje’s stopping power and diverse arsenal of strikes, along with his utter relentlessness, are daunting challenges to overcome. An early left hook from Michael Johnson surprised “The Eagle,” and although Gaethje’s striking should surprise no one, getting Nurmagomedov to respect his power would work wonders for him. On the other hand, the takedown and just the mere threat of the takedown has felled lesser men throughout Nurmagomedov’s rise to the top. Even so, Gaethje’s durability has not let him down in the early going, and unless Nurmagomedov snatches an early submission when both fighters are dry or he gets cracked, this fight should reach the later rounds. Should this line be unappealing for the betting populace, Fight Starts Round 3 at -145, Nurmagomedov Wins Inside Distance at -110 or the upset play of Gaethje by TKO/KO at +430 are worth tying to a straight pick for one man or the other.

Is this gonna be a TV, in a bar or at Fridays or summin, or will I have to stream it? I have been having issues with vipbox. SO, any help would…er, help. :+1:

I just wait an hour or so after it’s done and download it.


That’s my back up plan. Pretty cool, as the main card starts at 2PM. I just have to avoid the news for a few hours.

Brass Monkey?

They are both great wrestlers , one an all American D1 wrestler the other a Dagestani mountain man wrestler. Unfortunately Dagastani wrestling is superior as unlike their American counterparts the Dagestani children are allowed to catch, chain and wrestle with bear cubs , while de toothed and de fanged , all part of the culture of course.I hope khabib gets owned by the copper miner, 1 up for the bears :wink:

It starts at 2AM GMT+8.

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Tonight Brass Monkey.

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The UFC fights were live on MOD TV before. But think they stopped or maybe charge separately now.

I’ll be checking anyway.

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Yeah that’s not going to happen.

Yeah I have been time retarded since landing. I should be able to wake up tomorrow, ignore the net and dl the show.

I think that JG can catch him hard in RD1. KN does tend to get tagged in RD1. Also would LOOOOOOVE to see JG take KB down. It’s never been tried.

That said. KN is the ridonculous undisputed champ and he made Poirier wilt under his pressure. “Don’t make me do this to you, bro” is what he told one guy.

If Khabib breaks JG…he should retire. He has no equal. JG wants to know who is his equal.

NO ONE grinds like Khabib.

NO ONE smashes the legs and head like Justin.

Could be fight of the decade or over in ten seconds.


UFC is to be live on TV but can’t find any info now.

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I now know the truth.

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Fight over but Charlies Sports Bar shows UFC

“There’s no area where Khabib cannot fight.” -DC

I am astonished. We’ll never know how good Khabib really is as he legitimately has no equal.

Not only is he inhuman on the ground, but his conditioning is unreal. He was relentless with the pace and never looked the slightest bit winded. Gaethje and McGregor were both out of their league.

I think the McGregor who beat Alvarez would have been more of a challenge


Yup, agree.

Eddie fought a shit fight against CM. This Khabib was better then JG on the feet…he out boxed him and then took him down easily and choked him out. So, no offense, but save the Conner shit for fantasy league. There’s NO ONE who can or could beat Khabib at 155.

I may actually now buy his shirt. True GOAT.

At 155 yes, perhaps he could have moved up and faced Nate Diaz? Best 155 er , yup
He cannot move up weight he is just TOO SMALL

Conor completely outclassed Eddie. Looked like a different level of fighter. But after that fight, mentally and physically McGregor has clearly gone into tailspin. As an MMA striker he is leagues above Gaethje and to this date the only one who has won a round against khabib.

I’m not saying he would win, but that was not the McGregor at his peak

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Connor could move through weight classes too, Khab could not and never will