Bit coin bubble burst or is time to buy?

I’d always assumed he’d be using a lot of it for test fields for bioengineered crops once the political climate was favorable or holding it until it became much more valuable due to climate change.

I expect cryptos to lose 90% of value.

Why? Cause the FED decides to suck out liquidity like oxygen. Most cryptos have no real value and only real value is speculation. You hope someone else is willing to pay more dollars for it.

When stocks, bond market, housing go down while we have inflation of commodities and expensive dollar (interest rates going up) where next guy will get his dollars to buy your crypto?

I mean it can happen the FED change direction or cause of crazy current money supply is less successful on own tasks of removing liquidity but good luck with that

Yeah, it’s possible he’s just speculating on land value. I don’t think he has the faintest idea how you might farm large acreages in a era of energy scarcity and expensive (or impossible-to-obtain) fertilizers. It’s totally doable, but Gates doesn’t have the mindset to do it. His whole schtick is based around the idea that Nature is broken and it’s up to Bill Gates to remake it in His own image.

He’ll pay people who do know how to do it

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Those people are few and far between, and he doesn’t have the skills to accurately judge who they are. He thinks everything has to be done with technology - it wouldn’t occur to him to even speak to someone who knows how to do stuff with trees and cows.

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People literally say that every single year since crypto (bitcoin) started.
Of course some cryptos lose 100% of their value just like stocks.
In the end if you ain’t in ya can’t win.

They. Not me. So far no one won a bet against America. The FED has never been so bearish in last 14 years.
Same crowd said strategy with triple etf leverage sp500 works. Just hedge with TMF (long daily 3x treasury). Well bond market tanked too. It has been working for last 13 years and many people went bust this year.
Ofc no one knows where the market goes. But I still like to play based on odds & models.

Just as an aside: Leveraged ETFs have their own specific problems, and 3x is probably too high, but Lifecycle Investing backtested a 2x strategy back to like 1920 and found that over a lifetime it outperformed a “normal” 80/20 approach for pretty much any start date, even if you started the day before the Great Depression crash, lost everything, and then started over.

Similarly, the bond market tanked already, that means its a great time to invest in bonds with interest rates DEFINITELY going to rise over time.

I agree things look bearish but its a mixed picture and investors need tome to come to their senses and see where the value is. For instance I see travel stocks getting smashed but that doesnt make any sense given that everywhere is booked out practically in US and many parts of Europe! Ryanair demand is so high they are going to raise prices shortly. This would seem to be the stupidest time to sell such stocks.

Is that how it works? I don’t really know much about bonds, but my understanding is that as interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds goes down, meaning you don’t want to be holding them when it happens.


I dont know how it works verywell , but I know high interest rates are good for bonds.

So why should bonds tank now?

Yeah, but only for bonds issued after the rate goes up – at least for fixed-rate bonds like treasuries. Bonds tanked because everyone expects that to happen, so the ones out there now are unattractive.

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One important reason is lower bond prices mean higher bond yields. Investors who hold bonds for income are pleased when their prices fall, because those bonds continue paying the same income as before

You can now buy those same bonds at a cheaper price. So for NEW investors this is an opportunity.

Right, sure, but bonds you buy later after rates go up will have more attractive returns, justifying a higher price for them. It’s kind of a wash.

Is now the right time to lock in low rate long term loans like 30 year mortgages ? I think so…You get to pay a low rate meanwhile inflation cuts down your debt.

Totally, if you can get a fixed rate. AFAIK those don’t really exist in Taiwan. Rates are rising in Taiwan too, and I’m curious what that’ll mean for the real estate market.

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(An even better time to lock in a rate would have been before inflation kicked in, but you know what they say about hindsight)


The lesson here is never leverage up too much.
I have some leveraged crypto and it is definitely not worth the hassle and locked up too much collateral as i have to over collateralize due to volatility. I cannot relax and keep my eye off it now. Rookie mistake.

Crypto is so volatile that leveraging it at all seems kinda crazy to me. I’m 2x leveraged on (a widely diversified portfolio of) stocks, rebalancing as they go up or down, and it’s not impossible I could get wiped out, but it’s pretty unlikely.

Supposedly some banks in Europe are offering low interest 2.5% apr euro loans still . Not for much longer!