Bitcoin, something worth investing in?

So what? They trade cellular telephone minutes in Africa, and big giant rocks in Micronesia. One of Nigeria’s ministers recently bemoaned that Bitcoin has made their currency useless because who’s going to use their national currency when they can throw money into Bitcoin and not watch their savings get inflated away into nothing?

Have you been hiding under a rock?

Microstrategy, Tesla, Massachusetts Mutual Insurance, some falafel restaurant in Canada, and herds of others have all bought Bitcoin for their corporate treasuries already. Tesla has already made over $1B in gains on theirs. Microstrategy is up over $2.5B. That’s “B” as in “billion” and the dollar symbol indicates U.S. dollars.

And note that they are buying Bitcoin, not “random shitcoin that’s totes gonna take off any second now guys!!!”

@Brianjones Do you have a good resource starting point for cryptocurrency and the current environment for crypto in general? I know you have mentioned studying the history of Bitcoin, and other crypto, which I am very interested in.

I have a tax return of a couple thousand Canadian coming right away, and am looking into some crypto ideas as to what to invest in. Combined with the Coinbase stock I recently purchased, it will be only a small portion of my portfolio (under 5%), but I still would like some informed ideas before I buy.

I guess the bitcoin white paper is one place to start.
Bitcoin talk.


First test passed.

From Barron’s:

A rough weekend tested cryptocurrencies and the newly public stock Coinbase. As of Monday, both the cryptocurrency exchange’s stock and the meme-fueled Dogecoin were showing resilience, while Bitcoin remained relatively depressed.

Investors had been waiting for Coinbase stock to be tested after its big debut last week, and they didn’t have to wait long. Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency that accounts for the largest share of volume on the exchange, plunged over the weekend. In what should be a small vote of confidence in Coinbase, the stock fell much less than its most important asset.

Coinbase (COIN) was down 1.1% on Monday from its Friday closing price, even as Bitcoin, which is always traded, had fallen 9.2% over the same period. Bitcoin fell below $54,000 on Sunday, after trading above $64,000 as recently as Wednesday.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of crypto firm Galaxy Digital, wrote on Twitter that the drop showed that the “market got too one way,” adding “We will be fine in the medium term as institutions coming to the space. In the shorter term we will need to rebuild a trading base. Market damage doesn’t heal overnight.”

I see what happened recently as stop loss hunting. When whales sell suddenly and catch low stop losses especially for ethereum.
But it could also be some of the usual ‘profit taking’.

Was doing my U.S. taxes yesterday. There’s a new line on the 1040, something like “Did you invest in any online currencies during the previous year?” When the IRS is getting hip to this sort of thing it’s cause for worry.

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Why is that? Seems like crypto is being accounted for. How is that bad?

It’s a pity I didn’t listen to this guy on Tim Ferris’ podcast in mid 2020, he accurately predicted what happened at the end of 2020, beginning of 2021. Lots of crypto-knowledgeable guys on that podcast.

Even though the question is for Brianjones, I would recommend Tim Ferris’ show with guests talking about Bitcoin and crypto (just google those keywords). The latest, most-valuable show I’ve listened was with Naval Ravikant and Ethereum creator - Vitalik Buterin.
Most of the stuff about cryptography are hard to comprehend (I don’t), but you can read between the lines.

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Great advice. Thanks for that - I already checked out one episode; I forgot how much I like Tim Ferris.

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Glad to hear that! Disclaimer: Those are not financial advices :stuck_out_tongue:
I find his podcast impressive. Don’t know why but until recently I didn’t even try to listen to his show.

Possibly because a four hour day sounds a bit ludicrous for most of us. So it put us off checking out his other stuff . I will have a look too.

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Also check out the other crypto fount of knowledge below .
Me :joy:.

Warning : Since I wrote that I dumped EOS like a hot potato (eventually I realised it’s legions of detractors were actually right ). I also avoid XRP because Ripple is really a centralised crypto controlled by a few massive shareholders. Plus it’s boring.
A very important part of crypto is decentralisation. It’s not just a buzz word.

I’m still quite a fan of IOTA and NEO and ADA (Cardano) and Polygon abd Polkadot but my true love right now is simply ETH and the DeFI ecosystem big hitters on Ethereum (AAVE, COMPOUND, YFI).

I’m very heavy ETH and I really see no way to lose on ETH long term (more than 3 year time horizon I guarantee will be up with a cycle peak in the middle of possibly 10k USD, more than 5 year time frame up big 10x now, more than 10 year we are talking easily 30x-50x now ). You’ve got to think Microsoft , Amazon, Apple levels when thinking about Ethereum. It’s like the early days of all those.

Even if my predictions prove optimistic (I don’t think so), will still be substantially up . Ethereum is a kind of asset standard for blockchain, folks will only trust assest that gave been minted on Ethereum. They won’t trust assets minted on other blockchains for various reasons (unfamiliarity , not decentralised enough , government regulation which will favour Ethereum standards for compliance purposes).

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This guy explains the upcoming roadmap for Ethereum and also how it relates to Bitcoin and the Bitcoin cycles quite well.

He also does a great job of explaining how price depends on 'narrative ’ (media interest, speculation ) and ‘fundamentals’ (what the blockchain can do, how many active users ).

For people new to cryptocurrency investing you have to understand the huge boom bust cycles it goes through every three years or so. He expects this to be another one. So do I.

A handy rule of thumb for these Bitcoin cycles is that it will drop at maximum to the price of the peak of the last cycle. So for Ethereum (because all crypto coins price are still linked to Bitcoin price ) I think you really don’t see ETH below 2k USD even when this cycle busts after a final crack up boom such as we saw end 2017. That’s why when you buy the big assets in crypto (top 100) be prepared to hold onto them for a minimum of 3 years. That is to say feel free to sell at a high but even if down by a lot , you can probably wait it out for 2-3 years.

A good strategy is to sell some of your assets just off the peak but spotting the peak is quite tough. Obviously.

So just buy/sell/transfer under 500,0000 at a time?

Helpfully giving everybody time to get affairs in order. :grinning:


What are thoughts how the market’s going to perform?
I’ve was expecting another crash for a while but to me it’s seeming increasingly unlikely.

Mum’s been interested in dabbling with my help, and I told her it could potentially crash and burn, or just keep going up. But I reckon crypto is here to stay, and if you pick good coin choices you’ll be laughing in the long term.

It is painful to see the ridiculous gains people have got from doge. If I’d just held the VET I bought in 2018 I would have got 20x; or the VIDT I traded it fort in 2019, 10x. Instead as a result of chasing pumps and impatience I’ve barely broken even. I’m pretty happy with my holdings now though and I reckon I’ll owe the taxman a tidy sum within in a few years time :slight_smile:

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My wife caught the DOGE fever after she saw it on the news and bought a lot around 30¢. I told her I thought it would crash. Now she’s rubbing it in heavily.

DOGE is destined to be the new currency on Mars I guess.

Chasing pumps is good when it works .
When it doesn’t work…Ouch .
I don’t touch the DOGE you are better off sticking a big pile of cash into Ethereum and leaving it for three years you will be much much richer and not just have extra spending money for the holidays . So people think 2x is good in a week but how about 18x in 3 years. :grin:
DOGE is good for a flutter that’s about it.

The key in crypto is DCA and invest for multi year cycle in the top protocols , five to ten years horizon you can make massive gains. Now is probably the wrong time to put in a big one off investment, that should be done when it’s in the doldrums.
Now you are talking to a guy who invested something like 100k USD around the peak of the last cycle so I know pain when things take a bad turn (crypto dropped 80-90%% in value at the bottom and stayed down for about two years…The key to making the big returns was investing consistently at that time instead of turning away in disgust and selling at a loss ).

Most people think of crypto as a bit of a gamble…Small flutter or bet on this or that…They don’t take it seriously over the long term to make the really big gains. You got to think like Amazon and Apple ten year investment for the huge reliable gains.

Some people are good at day trading. My wife is in some Taiwan stock group that must be like WSB. I think she pays 60K a month to join it, but it’s well worth it. Over the last few years she’s averaged over 70K a week.

But I suck at day trading. Every time I try, I end up losing overall. I just think long-term like you. My wife says she wants to see money now. I tell her I want to be happy with my gains in 10 or twenty years. Maybe it’s good we have two different approaches. Right now Appian is killing me. It’s financials seem solid, but the stock is getting crushed. I’m down over US100K on it now. :pensive:

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