Brexit


#721

He needs to practice that hand gesture.
It’s a little off, downwards to the right.


#722

Almost. If she botches it, she’ll blame somebody else. If things work out OK entirely of their own accord, she’ll take the credit.


#723

Very interesting times indeed, however the jury is still out on Global Brexit Britain. Renault/Nissan want compensation for duties imposed by the EU on cars built in the UK - that would be for updates on current models, new models for Europe will be built in the EU. Most of the rest of the car industry in the UK think the same way, so that will be tough shit for good paying manufacturing jobs. If the UK is to remain competitive once the GBP price increase of imported inputs due to the GBP devaluation are factored in, you are looking at a 30% drop in real wages for auto workers if they are to keep a job. Surely will not make the tories popular in Sunderland.

The City - that will go, you have an ill will Europe stopping them from settling in EUR or marketing their wares, some hedge funds might remain, that’s it. Finance might go to Paris, New York, or Frankfurt, however the UK will not be the place.

And here is the thing, the political class has not got it yet. Brexit has not even started, people are holding tight hoping for the best, however now the worst case scenario is playing out, due to the momumental incompetence of Theresa May and cohorts. Are they complete tossers?


#724

I take it for granted that a politician will try to shift blame. Succeeding at blameshifting is another matter.

If she botches it, they’ll savage her.


#725

My prediction, first few years will be tough, some companies might leave. After a few years will be ok. We are talking about UK being more open and more globalized in the long-term, so short-term pain will be inevitable.

Brexit talks will be affected a lot by the coming French presidential elections. Chances are that whoever coming in will not be as Pro-EU as Hollande. Sarkozy is an Anglophile. Hopefully common sense will prevail and we end up with a situation that is good for everyone. China is about to hit a clusterfudge with the housing bubble finally set to burst, the EU would be better off thinking about the bigger picture, rather than childish punitive actions.


#726

How is the worst case scenario playing out? Pretty much everyone is saying otherwise http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/30/its-official-economy-doing-fine-after-brexit/


#727

Brexit hasn’t happened yet.


#728

Exactly. Thats the point. In June, people were predicting instant implosion and the rise of a pariah Nazi state.


#729

Even worse, you got Boris and May :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:

The article is ridiculous. Let me repeat. Brexit hasn’t happened yet.


#730

Yes, thats the point. The context is that people were predicting immediate implosion. The voice from a lot of the business world and Britains partners, has been positive. Companies are continuing to invest in the UK. I fail to see how the worst case scenario is playing out.

It could play out next year, but the signs dont look that way now


#731

The point of the article is Britains economy is doing well after Brexit.

But Brexit hasn’t happened yet.

In other news Team UK have won 7 golds and three silvers in the upcoming Olympic Games, putting their detractors on a defensive footing.


#732

The mean after the referendum, not the actual Brexit. Everyone in the city said that there would be immediate economic implosion and companies rushing to get their money out of the UK, and the opposite is happening.

Did you read the article?

_That preposterous piece of propaganda based much of its reasoning on the assumption that companies and other investors would have frozen their activities in the run-up to June 23. In fact, all of part two of that report – at least six pages – was predicated on the idea investment was retarded by the very fact of the referendum campaign, as opposed to its result, as Andrew Lilico of Europe Economics points out. _

The truth is that the costs and benefits of Brexit were never about any supposed immediate shock caused by sentiment and animal spirits. They are about the medium and long-run: whether Brexit Britain ends up becoming a more open, better place that encourages work, investment, entrepreneurship and productivity growth, and whether, on balance, we become a more rather than less free-trading nation.

The specifics of the Brexit deal we negotiate therefore matter greatly – but they are hardly the whole story. Other trade deals are also part of the cost-benefit equation which will determine Britain’s economic success over the next few years.

The good news is that the business establishment has become more sensible: it is now agitating for the best possible Brexit deal rather than seeking to reverse the referendum. On Thursday, Nissan asked for in indemnity against any possible future tariffs, in return for which it would invest more in Britain. It’s a clever negotiating strategy from the car industry, and other manufacturers will presumably join in. They have, on balance, benefited enormously to date from the lower pound, of course.


#733

It is the fact of the day, a nugget of information that will delight Brexiteers and reassure corporate Britain. The Office for National Statistics believes that output in the dominant services sector rose 0.4pc month-on-month and 2.9pc year-on-year in July. This is the first real, official output data after Brexit, and it’s better than even I – a relative optimist – had expected.

It’s a fact!!’


#734

Well it is a fact. Unless you think they are playing with the figures


#735

Since Brexit hasn’t happened yet it’s fiction.


#736

Look, quite obviously, the article is talking about the referendum. If you read the article, that is

Output in the domestic services sector rose. That is a fact.


#737

But it’s not obvious, read the misleading headline and first paragraph.

Then he throws in exactly one statistic and a load of runours, opinions and optimistic projections.

Fact is there are precious few facts in that article :grin:


#738

Listen, man, we get it. Journalists dont write headlines. Editors usually add something more sensational for clickbait purposes.

ANNNNNNNYYYWAY, the article is obviously talking about the referendum. We are all have good enough reading comprehension to see that. Its the Telegraph, not the Sun. The article discusses the Brexit deal.


#739

Ah Brexit deal. But there’s no deal yet.
There’s been a referendum. Words matter.
Lazy click bait journalism doesn’t deserve to be linked to.

It’s obvious the fall in value in the pound has helped cushion the economy. There will be a significant impact on people’s living standards as their savings and asset values and incomes drop in proportion to outside. UK incomes were already lagging compared to some European countries.
Over ten years ago you’d get 60 NTD to a GBP now it’s 40 NTD. It is much preferable to losing ones job of course or having a financial crisis. Some finance types and car workers are very likely to lose their jobs. UK will have to see if it can get investment in other areas. Fortunately U.K. still has very good research universities if not exactly overflowing with reserves of oil or gas. I would say potential benefits would be a move away from financialisatjon of the economy, one sticking point is that financial services are massive contributors to GDP and tax revenue.


#740

Just read the article dude. Please. We get it that the headline is misleading.

The specifics of the Brexit deal we negotiate therefore matter greatly