Brexit


#901

Yea, not much has changed since this time last year. Loved this video at that time: the holy grail brexshit…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=7qOyT3ZkUxI


#902

Here’s Teh Grauniad, as it often does, reveals far more than it intends:

Collective responsibility. Who the hell even believes in such a concept? A fascist dictator might.

This written before the Davis news, of course. Moral: you don’t have leverage if you can’t hold on to the lever.

The mainstream: a niggling detail. Those pesky normal people.


#903

:grin:

That probably is pretty much it.

I could be mistaken, but I doubt Brexit/austerity were the reasons nobody wanted the job. Anyone capable would see Brexit as a challenge. I suspect it was more to do with the country’s abject descent into populism, victimhood, incompetence and infighting that would make it virtually impossible to actually rise to a challenge without being eviscerated in the press for being, like, a mean person, or maybe even a judgmental person (exercising judgement being the most heinous social crime that one can commit these days.

On the basis that if you repeat something often enough, it becomes the truth.

The EU are full of it, which is why Brexit happened in the first place. There have been at least two world-class economists who have published their critiques of EU machinations. Admittedly the ones that I’m thinking of were personally caught in the crossfire and may have personal axes to grind, but unless they’re lying outright, I’d say they’re worth listening to.

Of course Britain can have their cake and eat it. There is no fundamental Law of economics that would prevent it happening - in fact there are good theoretical reasons why it’s not good to force heterogeneous economies into a spinlock. The only plausible punishment would be a bilateral one; ie., pure spite, resulting in harm to everyone.

Why do you think this? GBP is in the toilet right now, and British wages have been stagnant for quite a while, so labour is cheap relative to the Euro or the US$. Britons, by and large, are moderately well-educated and have a good skill set. Jobs that involve large-value-added operations and minimal imports of materials would do very well indeed. Even things like tourism could do well if Brits could up their game in the service stakes.

Life’s what you make it. Brits do tend to be a morose, glass-half-empty lot, but there’s absolutely zero reason why they can’t just tell the European establishment (as opposed to Europeans as a people) to go fuck themselves. The UK still has quite a lot of private support on the continent and businessmen tend to make their own arrangements, independent of the politicians’ private squabbles.

One interesting aspect of Brexit would be the ability (need?) to forge trade links with countries that are a bit off-the-radar. There’s few up-and-coming places in South America. Rwanda seems to have a lot of potential. The UK has enough political clout to influence some of the world’s confirmed shitholes all by itself if a sufficient number of carrots could be dangled, thus potentially making a positive difference where do-gooder organisations have perpetually failed.


#904

Even if the bureaucrats in Brussels decided to put a Cuba-style embargo on the UK, there would be people in Europe supporting the decision (mainly from countries that get tons of money from the EU itself).

I think that would also be the moment when US and UK become best trade buddies and every European country wants to jump on the new juicy trade wagon, apart from those that only produce deficit and survive thanks to the Euro-plantation.


#905

What’s called for is someone who doesn’t give a damn about the press. Weird hair optional.


#906

But like God, the press gives a damn about you. There’s also a very nasty undercurrent in British politics right now whereby the careerists don’t care how many people or good ideas get thrown under a bus as long as they, themselves, come out smelling of roses.

Very likely. I was thinking not just the US but plenty of other countries that might see the UK both as a destination for manufactured goods and as a genuine political/trade ally. However, this would require presenting a diplomatic face with a lot more savvy than May’s government seems capable of mustering.


#907

It’s not me who thinks that investment will grind to a halt in myriad manufacturing industries .
It is the bosses of Airbus, Jaguar, Car parts companies , Phillips and more. Jaguar is already in big trouble because it makes diesel engines. What about Nissan?
Because it becomes nonsensical for them to operate their supply chains and increases their costs .

You can’t just magic up another Airbus and another Jaguar and Nissan . If 80% of your cars are exported are they going to suddenly find massive new export markers elsewhere ?. Goods and services trading is largely dependent on proximity.

The EU common market and single market is what it is, the world’s biggest free trade and customs zone, right on the UK’s doorstep. If you don’t want to be in it there are major consequences for trade and investment for many years.

The EU is not preventing trade with the US, South Africa, Canada etc. In fact it has and is working on free trade agreements with many countries .
The whole narrative about the bullyboy EU preventing free trade is total BS. The EU even helped the UK to have a massive financial industry . The UK made the rules for the EU as much as anybody else.


#908

Those bosses shouldn’t even be in that position if they can’t think of a way to turn this to their advantage. In fact I’m sure they can. They’re probably just angling for some government handouts. Life is terribly hard for rich people, it seems.

I honestly don’t see how their costs are going to (predictably) increase. What they’re worried about, I suspect, is volatility and uncertainty. If the gov’t would just stop being so wishy-washy and make some decisions already, businessmen could get on with business.

Those companies are ‘too big to fail’. They’ve got massive global networks at their disposal. Can you put your finger on one specific consequence of Brexit that will hammer Airbus, for example? They have such enormous political clout that they’ll probably come to some private arrangement with governments regarding (say) the movement of parts and personnel. I’m actually quite looking forward to seeing the rich and powerful spell out to the bureaucrats which side their bread is buttered. I do hope those companies have got some Trump-like characters doing their negotiations.

Certainly. And for that reason, Europeans aren’t going to suddenly stop buying cars that are (nominally) made in the UK. Especially if they’re being made at attractive prices.

The politicians can play their silly games and business will carry on as usual. It happened during two world wars and it’ll happen again through a trivial spat.

You seem to forget that the EU is not a command economy. The EU mandarins would like it to be a command economy - and again, that’s why people are getting upset with them. My prediction is that the suits are about to find out exactly how irrelevant they are.

I never said they were doing that - at least not deliberately. However, their rules slant the playing field in such a way that other countries get a raw deal and the EU countries engage in pointless back-and-forth shipments of goods where only arbitrageurs make any real money. The CAP, for example, is an unmitigated disaster for global agribusiness, with all sorts of unintended(?) side effects.

IMO there should be some modest barriers to international trade, commensurate with the environmental and social externalities that it creates. It prevents people indulging in it for no good reason.

True, and that didn’t work out so well. People have forgotten that finance is not an actual industry: it’s just a big game of Monopoly. Ideally, finance is supposed to be the lubricant that keeps business chugging along, not just a moneymaking racket that can float free of the real-world economy without consequence.

Eventually there’s has to be what they euphemistically call a “correction”. The bankers, the insurers, the speculators, the loan sharks, the Big Swinging Dicks - they’re still utterly out of control. It’s far too easy to magic money out of thin air and then make it disappear again. Nobody learned anything from 2008. A bit of self-examination and retrenchment will be a good thing.


#909

Boris Johnson has resigned, so this is clearly a massive coup against May. My money is Rees-Mogg as the stalking donkey and rather tragically we’re going to end up with Gove as Prime Minister.

Do any MPs act on principle anymore? Or is it solely ego and ambition?


#910

Well, I’m no worshiper of big corporations.

Neither were Adam Smith or Ayn Rand. Smith preferred small enterprise and Rand preferred privately held large industry.

When a corporation gets too big, it starts to look and act like a government. And every government looks out for its own interests first. They may talk about the people or shareholder value, but they don’t mean it.


#911

None of the above. Unless survival counts as a principle.

Rats are always the first to leave a sinking ship, because rats aren’t stupid and they know what’s going on.

You don’t ever want to be last to leave a sinking ship. There might not be space on the lifeboats.

And the captain goes down with the ship for the same reason that dishonored samurai would commit suicide.

Theresa May is the worst thing that ever happened to Brexit. She’s also the worst thing that ever happened to herself. She’s a walking disaster area. She’s Captain Queeg in panties.


#912

She.Strong.And.Stable.


#913

She.Dumb.As.Dirt.

I’m old enough to remember when Hillary Clinton was “tough.” Well, as we can all see now, she’s not tough. She’s just bitchy. She’s the perfect illustration of the distinction.

Even a great slogan won’t save you if you can’t live up to it.


#914

You mean a proper recession ? That would hurt a lot of people who are already hurting . The UK doesn’t have generous social services although it does have good employment (at low wages and zero hours contracts.for a lot of folks).
The UK budget also depends on the services sector in particular the financial services tax contribution . Its not even in the ‘soft brexit’ proposal.
I guess the UK governnent doesn’t want to talk about that seeing it would be ’ a sign of weakness ’ in negotiations.
Enjoying the debate on brexit on the BBC!

Kind of shocking that MPs for areas that are set to lose jobs in a hard Brexit don’t talk about the risk of significant job losses …because of course they often tended to be brexit majority areas ironically enough !


#915

At the risk of oversimplifying your position, you seem to be arguing that because the country has been mismanaged for so long, and has become so beholden to perverse power structures, that it has no option except to keep kowtowing to those who have a firm grip on the UK’s metaphorical bollocks, lest they should decide to squeeze a bit harder.

That, it seems to me, is the best possible reason for taking a little bit of pain now in exchange for being able to breathe easy tomorrow.

If there are job losses, I suspect they will be ‘bullshit jobs’ - jobs that should have never existed in the first place and contribute nothing to the sum of human happiness. Hopefully better jobs will pop up out of the wreckage.

One of the biggest problems with the UK today is the massive sense of entitlement. No generous social services? Well, too bad, people - you should have thought of that possibility before pissing away money you don’t have on flat-screen TVs and holidays in Ibiza. No long-term work contract? So what? Why must an employer also be your nursemaid and ass-wiper? Stuck in an unfulfilling, mindless job? Shouldn’t have spent your whole 11 years of schooling acting like a dick, then, should you? Really, not much sympathy for those who dig a massive hole for themselves then whine because nobody is throwing them a ladder and free hamburgers.

Shit happens, and in the great hierarchy of historical shit, Brexit is utterly trivial. There’s probably somewhere on the planet right now where people are being hauled out of their homes at 3am and shot in alleyways by the police. Those people have something to actually worry about.

The government can’t protect you from everything, and it certainly can’t protect you from your own fecklessness.


#916

I’ve spoken to my dad about today’s events and in his opinion Boris Johnson is the stalking horse - but unknowingly so. Gove’s supporters have encouraged him and promised him support, and as we know he is a bit dim to the Third degree. Gove will stay in the background appearing to be loyal to the party as May gets taken down. Then he’ll slip in through the backdoor of number 10.

Makes a lot of sense.


#917

I just saw Price Harry paid 8000 quid for a book for his nephew.
Are you talking about dem lot ? :grinning:

How about Boris and Chums. Where’s Cameron off on holiday to ? Nice pensions and speaking tours and book signings.

The UK is class ridden and there are major issues with not having PR voting system so it’s hard to get real electoral mix and change your MP. Not sure what the EU has to do with that.

Waiting two years to get an internal deal and watch it fall apart in two days…There’s no consensus on Brexit and that’s the problem they need another general election or referendum. Ireland was often criticised for holding two referenda on the Lisbon treaty.
The public voted twice , it was a yes second time , people had a bit more time to understand the ramifications the second time around and never looked back. Maybe a general election would be more appropriate in the UK now that folks are generslly more clued into the options. The UK should aim for a soft brexit which could gain broad popular support it’s crazy that the minority hard brexiteers are driving the whole thing.


#918

This guy is good at pretending to talk sense. Note how he takes phrases associated with sober judgment and strings them together with utter nonsense to create a string of hypnotizing non sequiturs.

Very NLP. Almost like Obama’s “adult in the room” shtick. Which, by the way, Obama ruined for everyone after him. Which is why Trump doesn’t bother.

Anywho…

Why is that?

Unity!

“These terms are subject to change without notice.”


#919

That phrase that keeps getting thrown up… I mean thrown out… I mean used…

Go along or get lost. Fair enough. But when you demand too much, getting lost starts to look like the more attractive option.

Theresa May seems to have a habit of overestimating her bargaining position. It’s as if she lacks awareness of other points of view, or as if she has no concept of BATNA. Or maybe she just doesn’t grasp that all human interactions are negotiations, even if they don’t look that way.

Never try to bully people who are tougher than you.


#920

You’re shaking my confidence, baby…

A divided organization is the consequence of “legitimate” (official) authority being grossly incompetent. Everyone is forced to choose between two principles: obeying authority or doing what’s best.

My personal policy: authority must be earned by demonstrated competence, or no loyalty from me.