Brexit

Maybe some of you can put in say a paragraph or two what this means for the joe blow in the street brit.
Without writing a 25 page tome.

What are the main pros and main cons for the common Brit ?

The pound is getting pounded. But a weak pound should be great for export eh?

[quote=“tommy525”]Maybe some of you can put in say a paragraph or two what this means for the joe blow in the street brit.
Without writing a 25 page tome.

What are the main pros and main cons for the common Brit ?

The pound is getting pounded. But a weak pound should be great for export eh?[/quote]

The only honest answer is the same as before the referendum, nobody knows. Although the the beeb and others are already predicting financial doom.

[quote=“tommy525”]Maybe some of you can put in say a paragraph or two what this means for the joe blow in the street brit.
Without writing a 25 page tome.
[/quote]

Nothing will happen (speculation aside and some jittery markets) for at least 3 months. Which is when Cameron says he will hand over to a new Prime minister and it will be that Prime minister who will get to decide when to invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which triggers a 2 year process for leaving the EU. What the terms and conditions Britain can negotiate leaving the EU is not known, we will have to wait and see over the coming months and years.

[quote=“tommy525”]Maybe some of you can put in say a paragraph or two what this means for the joe blow in the street brit.
Without writing a 25 page tome.

What are the main pros and main cons for the common Brit ?

The pound is getting pounded. But a weak pound should be great for export eh?[/quote]

Nobody knows.

The terms of the Brexit have not been established yet. It’s up to Merkel whether it’s a painful and acrimonious exit, or if she lets the UK go with some dignity. Figures like a 2% drop in GDP are speculation. The EU bureaucrats know that if they start a tariff war, they will face a revolt in their own countries. So trade will continue.

When we leave, 10 billion GBP a year will not exit the UK for the EU, but instead stay in our own borders. There will also hopefully be less migrants looking for work.

Uncontrolled immigration creates competition for low paid jobs. This leads to competition, desperation, and exploitation…> which further drives down hourly wages. If immigration slows down, there may be many positives for the average person looking for a job.

I agree no one has a solid plan. We don’t know how it will turn out, so we’ll all have to do our best to make a better future.

Cameron quits:

youtube.com/watch?v=84Ep7-aEI1U

telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 … -to-leave/

Will Farage be PM? It could easily happen now. Better than that Corbyn demagogue, who wears cardigans to show he’s down with the people.

Of course nobody knows in the strictest sense of the word, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make educated estimates based on facts we do have. Saying we don’t know the trade and GDP effect of Britain leaving the EU would be like saying we don’t know what effect it would have on Canadian trade if we lost the US as a trading partner. Uh yeah, we kinda do know.

And are you suggesting that you think the loss in trade will be a number smaller than 10 billion GBP? For most people the argument is, how much more costly will the trade loss be compared to the savings in the membership fee. Many many many many more times? Or just many many more? :slight_smile:

May be the right move, not having to support say Greece. Keeping the money in Britain.
The EU may eventually fall apart because this 10 billion pound loss will be a big hit for the EU I would think?

Cameron quits? I thought he was going to stick around to guide things along. Some are appealing for calm but Cameron leaving is a punch in the gut.

Edit: good Lordy. This sets off a Major Earthquake of dissent and disunion past 8 on the economic richter scale. France could leave the EU, Germany could leave. The EU could be toast in the next few years, unless a new charter is drawn up that works better.

The UK could fall apart if Scotland splits off. Then Wales (no Wales would stay with England maybe) and Ireland casts off its anchor.
Where would the royal family be? Queen of England only? OH and statutory Queen of Australia and N.Zealand and Canada.

With Europe in disarray and Trump as President , we are all in for a rough ride.

Armageddon.

[quote=“BrentGolf”]Of course nobody knows in the strictest sense of the word, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make educated estimates based on facts we do have. Saying we don’t know the trade and GDP effect of Britain leaving the EU would be like saying we don’t know what effect it would have on Canadian trade if we lost the US as a trading partner. Uh yeah, we kinda do know.

And are you suggesting that you think the loss in trade will be a number smaller than 10 billion GBP? For most people the argument is, how much more costly will the trade loss be compared to the savings in the membership fee. Many many many many more times? Or just many many more? :slight_smile:[/quote]

We haven’t even started discussing trading terms yet

[quote=“HenHaoChi”]Cameron quits:

youtube.com/watch?v=84Ep7-aEI1U

telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 … -to-leave/

Will Farage be PM? It could easily happen now. Better then that Corbyn demagogue, who wears cardigans to show he’s down with the people.[/quote]

No, Conservatives will choose a new leader, who will become new PM. Farage is UKIP and Corbyn is Labour.

OK, it will be a new conservative leader. But there will be an election in a few years and both of those guys could be in the running.

EDIT: Or maybe not, because the next election is in 2020.

Whatever happens, Nigel has shown he can have an impact on UK politics without even being in office.

I don’t think that analogy is correct. The EU is not suddenly going to blockade the English channel and stop all trade going through. Business will continue, we just have to renegotiate terms. If the EU is spiteful and controlling, and starts a red-tape and tariff war, that will work against them, and more countries will want to leave the Union.

The UK has been trading with Europe for hundreds of years. EU bureaucrats will have to tread carefully now, or become even more unpopular.

[quote=“HenHaoChi”]OK, it will be a new conservative leader. But there will be an election in a few years and both of those guys could be in the running.

EDIT: Or maybe not, because the next election is in 2020.

Whatever happens, Nigel has shown he can have an impact on UK politics without even being in office.[/quote]

Right, long way off. I’m not sure how this will effect UKIP, now that the public have had their say and the two major parties Conservative and Labor are now tasked with a Brexit, it’s possible UKIP might decline to obscurity once again.

And that’s my point. There was no plan, there is no plan. Leaving the EU isn’t in itself a mistake. Leaving the EU without a plan in place beforehand sure is though.

The only way this can work out in the end is if the leaders going forward are just incredibly solid and on the ball. It was an emotional vote, and that’s fine. More than half were fed up, they are done, fine. But in the coming months, things have to go from emotional to economic. Given what I’ve seen not only in Britain and Europe but around the world as well, I don’t have a lot of confidence in the abilities of government to shock and amaze us with their brilliance.

So you’ll be surprised when the numbers start showing in the coming months / years that it had a negative effect on trade? On the flip side, I’ll be surprised if GDP goes up because of it. One of us will be surprised :slight_smile:

And that’s my point. There was no plan, there is no plan. Leaving the EU isn’t in itself a mistake. Leaving the EU without a plan in place beforehand sure is though.

The only way this can work out in the end is if the leaders going forward are just incredibly solid and on the ball. It was an emotional vote, and that’s fine. More than half were fed up, they are done, fine. But in the coming months, things have to go from emotional to economic. Given what I’ve seen not only in Britain and Europe but around the world as well, I don’t have a lot of confidence in the abilities of government to shock and amaze us with their brilliance.[/quote]

We have two years. We are not going to stop trading with any of the good countries in Europe, which is basically Germany. We are the number one consumer of German products in the EU, why are they going to want to put huge tariffs on their cars? What is in it for them? Apart from revenge.

I think Nigel will become a minor national hero, and he’ll use his position to influence negotiations for the Brexit these next 2 years. A clever conservative leader would listen to him. At least we’re living in uncertain times.

And that’s my point. There was no plan, there is no plan. Leaving the EU isn’t in itself a mistake. Leaving the EU without a plan in place beforehand sure is though.

The only way this can work out in the end is if the leaders going forward are just incredibly solid and on the ball. It was an emotional vote, and that’s fine. More than half were fed up, they are done, fine. But in the coming months, things have to go from emotional to economic. Given what I’ve seen not only in Britain and Europe but around the world as well, I don’t have a lot of confidence in the abilities of government to shock and amaze us with their brilliance.[/quote]

We have two years. We are not going to stop trading with any of the good countries in Europe, which is basically Germany. We are the number one consumer of German products in the EU, why are they going to want to put huge tariffs on their cars? What is in it for them? Apart from revenge.[/quote]

The EU, that’s what’s in it for them. When the time comes, I may stand corrected, but as of now I firmly believe that the EU will not allow Britain to continue to access the open market without giving in on the free movement of labour. That would undermine the entire EU.

Either Britain wins the negotiations and it’s the beginning of the end of the EU. Or Germany and the rest win the negotiation, and Britain is going to be hurt in future trade. Of course trade is not going to cease. Nobody is saying they literally will be shut off. All I’m suggesting is the future deal may not be as good as the current deal, and it will add up to an economic loss going forward. Not black and white, very much grey. But that grey will likely hurt Britain more than Germany. If it doesn’t, the EU is done. House of cards…

Well Germany can choose to be punitive if they wish, but it will hurt themselves. There are basically two solvent economies in the EU (one now). We can have free movement of Labour with Germany, if that is what they want. There will be a lot of sabre-rattling, a lot of scaremongering and then things will be roughly OK. We are not going to stop trading with Germany anytime soon. If so, then they are acting like kids because we left their little club.

Jesussufferingfuck, Facebook is reminding me I hate most of my friends. The passive-aggressive whining, the wailing and gnashing of teeth, the us-and-them divisive sheer obnoxiousness of the sore losers is just horrible. We have learned nothing from Jo Cox’s murder.

The apocalypse is not nigh.

And there’s definitely part of me that wants to see Britain independent and free of the EU that is of course riddled with problems. Honestly over time the whole thing should go. But sometimes change just for change sake ends up being worse. With no plan in place, the timing seems rushed. I don’t think these leaders that were pushing to leave truly care about Britain’s future or the lower income people it will effect the most. . They just want the big job, that’s it. Trump doesn’t care about making America great again, he just wants the big job. And they use anger and fear to trigger emotional responses to get people to vote the way they want them to.