Brexit


#1481

and average uk workers were not in a good position before. this needs to stop, i’m not even in the damn country, i left because of the state of the place and its still effecting me with the pound getting lower and lower.


#1482

Exactly. There’s little worse than seeing your living standards drop and not seeing an end in sight. I’ve seen a few proper recessions/depressions in my time …Would not wish them on anyone.

On the other hand save your NTDs and be a big spender back home.


#1483

Typically , I am about to sell a property in the UK :pensive:


#1484

In fact one of the major reasons I’m still in Taiwan is because the massive property bust and recession in Ireland. I don’t think many people know what that’s like but I knew many many people who lost jobs,., emigrated, got into debt, had to sell property cars etc…Just general misery for a few years.


#1485

It’s okay, you could have invested in cryptocurrencies like me.


#1486

Michael Heseltine

Check out @JKCorden’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/JKCorden/status/1073111849997033472?s=09

PM of Luxemburg

Check out @Channel4News’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1073553013581770753?s=09


#1487

Possibly . The Euro would worry me , and has for some time. I want Brexit for many reasons, that I have considered for decades , not just now. Nothing to do with jingoism, and , for me , not just about immigration and the lesser reasons, that seem to be flaunted. I have seen an Institution arise, from being Economic, to Social, political, federal, greedy, and I fear where it is going.
May should have understood that the EU did not wish any Member state to leave, and , of course , why should they facilitate any deal ?
Wasted 2 years to get here… I think just leaving then , and sorting deals out , from that point , as a separate entity , would have ( with hindsight) been better for everyone. Some things worry me, immensely, about the secret nature of the EU Banking/Economic regime. You understand more than most , perhaps.
I would ask you to watch this , because these issues will not just go away . They have been brushed under the carpet , but Italy Spain, France, Greece and others will put so much pressure on Germany , financially . anyway , I hope you watch , it’s interesting . Caveat ( he is German as he jokes)


#1488

Hard brexit by default ?
This would be an utter disaster as there is no mandate for such extreme move.


#1489

@shiadoa: have you just received an emergency shipment of commas from the EU?

I agree that May has completely misunderstood the intent of the EU. Its purpose is power, Orwell-style, and she should have factored that into her strategy.

Britain is going to suffer for a while, but it’ll probably sort itself out eventually. It’s carrying a lot of dead weight, but there are (I think) still enough hardworking, smart people there to do what needs doing. Most of them are probably Indian or Polish, but whatever.

If the EU mandarins force a hard Brexit, they’ll shoot themselves in the foot, because other member states will see them for what they are, and they will be afraid. There will be a mass exodus of less-significant States following Britain, because there will be an obvious big risk in remaining part of a vindictive and capricious federation. What will happen to the rump of the EU after that is anybody’s guess: another European war isn’t outside the realms of possibility.


#1490

:trollface::relaxed:


#1491

I doubt this will happen, mainly because tier2 Eu members are those that get flooded by Eu cash in order to work as yes-men in the Eu parliament. That’s why Poland and Hungary are being labeled as far right Nazi etc etc, not because they don’t want their far share of cultural enrichment and trucks of peace, but because they’re not following the script that the Eu paid them to play.


#1492

Ah, fair point.

Nevertheless, the fact that (eg) Hungary is not playing the game suggests that there is some serious dissent in the ranks.

Incidentally … for all those who think Britain is all doom and gloom because of Brexit and we’ll all have to emigrate to India to work as oilcan recyclers and lunch-delivery boys: my job feed from the contract agencies in the UK always contains a healthy sprinkling of jobs in defence (ie., arms-dealing). Seems like the UK is still the go-to shopping district for those who need to blow shit up.


#1493

Man the oranges are really getting out of control

Also I totally agree that the EU is going to collapse after it leaves the UK :crazy_face: Like I have always said, once the continental oranges stupidly cut themselves off they will probably sink.


#1494

Hungary is run by an autocrat , it was a big mistake for the UK to lean towards them, pissed off a lot of other governments . They are a fringe state in the EU… nevertheless we didn’t see them agitate for Hungerexit yet .

The UK could choose Norway plus style agreement instead of all these red lines and running out the clock. Leaving the single market and customs union will have a massive economic impact. British people will lose the automatic right to work and live in the EU and vice versa, it means a lot of red tape and less regional investment. Whole industries such as car manufacturing will be decimated. Financial services…Even more risky for govt budgets.


#1495

So are most countries :slight_smile:

I probably shouldn’t attempt so many predictions. There’s going to be some chaos, in the technical sense of the word.

It will … but what KIND of impact? It remains to be seen. IMO the EEA agreements a double-edged sword: while free trade allows the flow of useful goods, it also allows the flow of useless ones. Part of the reason the UK can no longer feed itself is that the big buyers decided to get everything from the Continent. Now the reason for that is complex, but it all boils down to tiny price advantages that are not offset by the cost of transport or paperwork (bulk road transport and shipping being heavily subsidized, of course). That situation was caused by combination of British and EU policies (starting during the Thatcher years) which together wiped out British farming. Deliberately.

You can’t know that. When laws fail, people make their own arrangements. Finance is all jiggery-pokery, and I’m sure the finance wizards will jigger and poke their way out of it, because that’s what they do. Same with manufacturing - no competent factory boss is going to just throw up his hands and shutter the place. He’ll find ways and means.

In any case manufacturing deserted Britain long ago, in the early years of European integration; I could equally argue, then, that the EU was disastrous for British manufacturing (even though what actually happened was unrelated to Europe) and that the massive drop in the pound will make skilled UK labour look more attractive. That’s not unfair, by the way: if you’re being paid in pounds and spending in pounds, then the exchange rate is less relevant … as long as the country you’re spending in has a robust internal economy, which it will have to acquire sharpish.


#1496

don’t worry, if Orban let the Eu run his country, his methods for staying in power would be completely legit.

For future reference:

Guess which country will be the next one to end up on the list of baddies?


#1497

Manufacturing has not deserted the UK, the motor vehicle industry in the UK is producing more cars than ever. The place I work at has a very significant manufacturing site in the UK with hundreds of well paid engineers.

I know that 85% of cars manufactured in Britain are for export. A no deal brexit will cripple the industry. 100,000s of jobs in jeopardy. A soft brexit will still have significant impact because they depend on JITM (just in time manufacturing). Imagine the situation for UK parts suppliers for European car factories, how are they supposed to ship the parts for continental Europe in time ?

One can say , they will switch to supply the domestic market. Some minority might, most will just pack up or move future investment closer to the market as economies of scale won’t be there in the UK . The UK would need many years to negotiate new free trade agreements and it is 100% certain any new free trade agreement with the EU will be worse than what they already have!

Also online retail and supply chain of almost any sort in the European customs union will be strongly affected. Red tape , delays and extra costs. Many will simply setup in Holland , Ireland, Belgium , Germany etc. In fact Holland and Ireland are already seeing ‘Brexit refugee companies’.

It’s not the end of the UK but it certainly will be a poorer UK for many many years if they go for hard Brexit.


#1498

It’s a pale shadow of its former self.

Long-term, this is a good thing. The automobile is an obsolete technology. It should have died in a ditch 30 years ago. It’s been kept on life support precisely because it’s a white elephant: it generates vast sums of tax revenue while delivering nothing of any practical value to anyone.

Car manufacturers have enough political clout to actually push more sensible solutions for transport, but they won’t. So not much sympathy, really.

OK, I can see that would be a problem. Nevertheless, Taiwan manages to implement JIT using parts from (say) Japan, so there must be ways and means.

Anyway, the auto sector isn’t the entirety of British economic output. At least I hope it isn’t. Yes, some people will have to go and find new jobs. Worse things can happen to a body.

I won’t disagree with that, but a bit of hardship usually brings out the best in people. Maybe they’ll stop whining about gender quotas and get on with solving some actual practical problems.


#1499

So the Uk entered the Eu as the 2nd biggest economy, and will probably leave it being worse than it was before…and that should be a point in favor of the Eu?


#1500

That literally means nothing. I can’t even tell what you are trying to say.

Are you saying the UK is worse ?
The EU is worse?
The UK and EU is worse?

Do you know the UK was essentially bankrupt in the time period of when it joined the EC in the 1970s?
The golden years ?
http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/cabinetpapers/themes/sterling-devalued-imf-loan.htm

Besides it’s not up to the EU , its the UK that is (still) working on leaving . Maybe . Eventually. Somewhat.