Brexit


#1621

The EU on the whole sells a shitload more to the UK than the UK to the EU.
Germany has a big trade deficit with the UK.
So, the UK should be in the drivers seat in trade talks, not the other way around. Unfortunately, they haven’t found a Trump-like trade negotiator among its midst.


#1622

As a whole ? Nobody cares. The EU is too important for individual countries .

The only Europeans who seem to really care about the hard brexit is Ireland but the UK Tory govt keeps allying with the extremist DUP party well known for bigotry and hatred. The DUP isn’t even a governing party in NI right now. They want to put a border on our island suits the extremists but nobody else. They literally want to divide our country.


#1623

A hard Brexit would be the toughest negotiating position the UK could take. This appears to be happening, so how much stronger could May have been? The EU is rejecting any compromise to the initial deal, other than possibly allowing a delay to hard Brexit or offering the UK the chance to remain.

The EU represents all its member States. Trade deficits between the UK and individual EU member States are secondary to the EU as a whole. How could the UK have been stronger in its negotiations?

I suppose May could have said at the start we’re leaving tomorrow and we’re not paying the divorce bill, but other than that I am at a loss as to how the UK could have taken a tougher negotiating position. Do you have any ideas?


#1624

it’s only a hard-Brexit when that type of exit occurs. let’s hope so.


#1625

That’s where it’s heading…Rapidly. Damage has already started. I’ve seen some shitshow govts (not least my own homeland’s word class bust and Taiwans mess over the years) but this one is in a special class . May is like the Brexinator…Nothing can shift her out of that driving seat to nowhere.


#1626

May’s negotiating tactic is holding a gun to UK’s head and telling all British and Europeans I’m going to pull it the deadline is coming. Just watch me do it.
As a tactic it’s extraordinarily high risk and it’s also not giving other parties a chance to come in and review other options. It’s quite dictatorial and crazy actually given she suffered the biggest defeat ever of a bill from a ruling party ! These are not normal times.

There’s a bunch of folks in the background silently cheering her on such as the ECG group, hence their champagne dinner a while back. She’s doing the dirty work for them. She’s not very smart so she may not realise whats going on.


#1627

It looks inevitable. My hope is that it will make people understand logic and compromise. My fear is that we’ll end up with loads of people in high-vis jackets complaining that Brexit wasn’t what they thought it would be. I think the latter will be the case.


#1628

For those who want hard brexit my question is, what’s next ?

What’s the plan? Remember you’ll be dealing with significant economic damage and further political turmoil in the period following brexit.

So what’s the plan? How are people going to keep their jobs , how is the government going to fund the extra spend required and all that boring stuff? How will they deal with a lot more pissed off people than there already are? What’s all those car plant workers going to do for a living ?


#1629

I don’t know, but the two biggest trading countries in the world (US and China) have been in a trade spat for nearly a year, and the US cancelled NAFTA and set up USMC, and the economic world did not blow up.
So, why would anyone logically (not emotionally) think the whole world of the UK will collapse on hard-Brexit, when those examples above did not kill the US and/or China?


#1630

You are right the UK will not collapse. It looks like it’s going to be poorer though and a less friendly place to Europeans and maybe foreigners in general. Also British living in Europe will encounter some difficulties. Actually British everywhere due to affects on currency and asset prices. Northern Ireland will not do well. Scotland might go for another referendum at some point.

The economic, social, regulatory and political impact of leaving the EU is much bigger than the examples you mentioned though. Those trade pacts don’t significantly interfere with drugs or food supplies for instance, even temporarily.
Also the UK financial industry is strongly tied in with EU markets. Look into it and how much revenue City of London generates.
There’s millions of Europeans and foreigners in the UK affected by Brexit policies it’s a really big deal for them.


#1631

So the question is.
Hard Brexit.
What’s next?


#1632

That’s what transshipment centers are for, like HK was for China, before China’s reforms and ports ramped up.
Have faith in the invisible hand of the market and Adam Smith. When/if holes appear, smart trading companies quickly fill the gap. New industries post-Brexit in the UK will rise up very quickly.


#1633

So no plan. Hope. Wishful thinking ?
The UK can’t act as transhipment center for the EU (there’s even an example of a poster here saying he just moved his EU logistics center to Holland), the world’s biggest and richest market that it just exited on its doorstep.

So how is this all going to work? Where’s these goods going to be coming and going from? Africa? India.? US? Details! Won’t those places want preferential trading and migration terms too?

What’s the UK’s niche ? To be a giant Singapore ?.But there’s not enough markets and money to support that especially if the EU tigthens up on financial regulations.
And if the UK does aim to be some kind of low tax low cost mecca how does it pay for the NHS for instance ?
What about all the disgruntled low paid workers and unemployed ? The Scottish like their social programs I don’t think they will stay in such a union. Northern Ireland also which is heavily subsidised by taxpayers.

Also the UK in May’s preferred plan isn’t even trying to maintain a service trade agreement with the EU which is madness.


#1634

This is something I generally agree with, but it takes time. It also requires cultural changes in thinking that I’m not sure many people in the UK are capable of.

You’ve previously lauded the gilets jaunes, who are classic examples of anti laissez faire economics.

What is it that you want? The common man getting what he feels entitled to, or the market determining what he’s worth? I’m somewhere in the middle, but you don’t appear to be.


#1635

Don’t know I can say I lauded the yellow vests.
More interested in on-the-ground stories.
From what I read they are protesting high living costs, in other words, a tax riot. They began against nationwide fuel tax hikes.
Revolutions come due to taxes and corruption.
Protests in Paris go back further to May 5, 2013 under Hollande after just one year in power.
France has lagged in economic growth.
There is hardly any private investment in France.
The rich have left (a bad sign, sorry all you OC lovers).
Macron’s poll rating is like 20%.

Personally, after all the analysis I have read over tbe decades, the EU had a utopian dream of love and happiness everywhere, economic brotherhood, etc. But, in reality, the EU countries are still vastly culturally different, and nothing can change that, except what this immigration policy tried to do wrongly by bringing in a culture that never integrates.
I could go on, but it’s been said before here and on many Internet sites.
The EU is dying slowly. A cancer that has no cure. People can still promote it, but better effort can be placed elsewhere. I find it fascinating.
I have ZERO emotion or money in this game, so I’m just picking what I see to be the ultimate winner, a UK out of the EU for good. Hard-exit.


#1636

Its always like that in France though, par for the course, its how we roll :wink:


#1637

Exactly. Its already a shit show. If it gets any weaker put me on suicide watch


#1638

Do you want an Adam Smith free market or not? That would mean no tariffs and free movement of labour. It isn’t a pick n mix.


#1639

The traditional postal service is obsolete. Cliff Claven’s best days are behind him.


#1640

Only a very minor player needs a niche. A real nation state has a portfolio. Diversify the economy and get on with business.