Anybody want to make predictions about other applicants? Some say Croatia in 2009, Macedonia and Montenegro a few years after that.
What about the Black Sea countries of Turkey, Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia? Think the Bilderbergers want their oil bad enough?
Will Albania get a pass? Will Serbia? Just to fill in the blank spots…?
And how about the “EFTA 3”? Will the Norwegians change their mind? I can’t imagine how the Swiss system could ever be made to fit…
Gazing far into the future…what about North Africa and the Middle East? Natural partners for an increasingly Muslim Europe, or doomed to radioactivity?
I think there’s a growing unwillingness among the member states to expand the Union any further - many members feel that the “expansion at all costs” attitude of previous years is going to lead to them losing control of the beast they created, as the balance of power shifts eastward. Of course, those already in accession talks will probably see out the process, but it does call in to question the very purpose of the EU. “Europe” is a nebulous concept, meaning different things to different people. For some, it’s a geographical notion that gets a bit fuzzy out east (is Russia European?). For others, it’s a “shared cultural heritage”. For others it’s an economic unit, or an idea of values and rights. For some people, it’s a religious background, hence the to-do about whether to include Turkey.
I don’t have answers to any of these questions, but I think the problem of deciding what Europe is will come increasingly to the fore in discussions on new members. Also, realpolitik is going to come further in to play when “old Europe” decides it will no longer call the shots if more countries are invited in.
Honestly, I don’t think any predominantly muslim countries will ever make it in.
The EU is a Christian club, and the US misguided attempt to get EU to accept Turkey was a non-starter from the get-go. After all, public opinion in Europe would have a very hard time stomaching an EU turning 1/4 muslim. Thank the Christian God that US support for that misunderstanding was quietly dropped, when Turkey refused to provide a staging area for the invasion of Iraq. (The US never really understood EU anyway, and most likely never will.)
Croatia will make it in, the other countries are uncertain - Serbia will perhaps in another decade, if they manage to shed the shadow of genocide lying rather heavy on them.
There are some other arguments against a continued enlargement. First of all, the no 1 order of the day for EU should be to get the constitution on track and have it replace the jumble of treaties currently serving as the constitutional basis for the EU. Secondly, the EU should try to absorb and swallow what’s already chewed off. Getting the large parts of Central Europe already in up to EU living, infrastructure and production effectiveness standards is likely to be a multi-year commitment. Third of all, apart from expansion, a renewed momentum when it comes to the continued deepening of the community is fairly important. EU was from the getgo envisioned as a European federation, and that goal must be pursued, unless we want EU to end as yet another talk shop with no real content.
Mr. He, for a long while–say, Greece’s ascension?–there have been tensions between those who want the EU to be a deep federation–France, Germany, ect–and those who want to limit the degree to which it impacts on national sovereignty–UK. The UK pushed hard to grow the EU quickly in order to complicate and frustrate attempts to deepen the federation. I expect the UK will continue to work to bring Turkey along, because if Turkey does come on board, its presence will be enough to scuttle attempts to forge a truly supranational state… leaving the UK happily ensconced as the transatlantic go-between.
Too bad. A supranational European state might present a fantastic model of innovative governance. Maybe. (Lots of folks figure that the EU is a one-off phenomenon, and doesn’t provide a model for anyone else.) But it’s a huge challenge in itself; with Turkey brought into the mix, it’s a virtual impossibility.
Turkey, the political elites in the most of continental Europe would not be able to survive the impact of Turkey entering the club. Note that referendums on their assecion have been mentioned, a French no to Turkey getting in would kill it instantly and for at least another 20 years. Also, the negotiations between Turkey and the EU have been partly suspended, due to the fact that the human rights situation is Turkey is way below the standard in Europe.
So no, I don’t see them joining for a good while.
I think the answer to the UK and the issues they have with the fact that they see themselves as a bit different would be a munti-speed Europe, IE one where the UK can stay out of the deepening, and still get access to the EU market. That approach worked for Shengen and for the the 4 Danish eceptions as well.