I’ll let Mr. Smith decide to what extent he wishes to respond to the accuracy of assumptions that: (a) he is very, very old (just about on the brink of death, in fact), and (b) he is a wealthy retired European businessman.
My comment relates to the issue of age, and the effect that experience might have on one’s perspective on the issue of global warming. My question is this: Do you think that someone who saw the world’s best scientists make exactly contradictory predictions 30 years ago might be justified in being skeptical about the current predictions?
__________The world’s top scientists overwhelmingly agree: the Earth is cooling
[color=black] … climatologist J. Murray Mitchell, then of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, noted in 1976: “The media are having a lot of fun with this situation. Whenever there is a cold wave, they seek out a proponent of the ice-age-is-coming school and put his theories on page one…Whenever there is a heat wave…they turn to his opposite number, [who predicts] a kind of heat death of the earth.”
"The cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people in poor nations. It has already made food and fuel more precious, thus increasing the price of everything we buy. If it continues, and no strong measures are taken to deal with it, the cooling will cause world famine, world chaos, and probably world war, and this could all come by the year 2000."[/color]
–Lowell Ponte, The Cooling, 1976.
“The facts have emerged, in recent years and months, from research into past ice ages. They imply that the threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind.”[/color]
–Nigel Calder, former editor of New Scientist and producer of scientific television documentaries, “In the Grip of a New Ice Age,” International Wildlife, July 1975.
[color=black] “At this point, the world’s climatologists are agreed…Once the freeze starts, it will be too late.”[/color]
–Douglas Colligan, “Brace Yourself for Another Ice Age,”
Science Digest, February 1973.
“I believe that increasing global air pollution, through its effect on the reflectivity of the earth, is currently dominant and is responsible for the temperature decline of the past decade or two”[/color] Reid Bryson, "Environmental Roulette, Global Ecology: Readings Toward a Rational Strategy for Man, John P. Holdren and Paul R. Ehrlich, eds., 1971.
[color=black]Bryson went so far as to tell the New York Times that, compared to the then- recent “decade or two” of cooling, “There appears to be nothing like it in the past 1,000 years”, implying that cooling was inevitable.[/color]
__________Flashback to Fred Smith, around 1976
Photo of Fred Smith taken in 1976. “I don’t believe in this Global Cooling nonsense”, said the old man in a phone interview from his home in Europe.
Imagine, swiller, that Fred Smith read all of the literature coming from leading scientists in the early 1970s (he had time to read, having retired in the late 50s). Imagine that Fred Smith, at that time, claimed in discussions with friends “You know, I don’t really believe this Global Cooling business. If anything, I think it might be getting warmer.”
What would the younger generation (those born in the 20th Century) have said in response to 1976 Fred Smith?
Perhaps they would have told him: [color=blue]“You may not care that the world is getting colder every year. But that’s because you are old and rich. You just plan to stay warm in your vast European chateau with plenty of servants to put more rainforest hardwood in your fireplace… meanwhile the rest of the planet is going to freeze to death because of Global Cooling.”[/color]
Perhaps they would have told him: [color=blue]“Who are you to disagree with the best scientific minds and evidence in the world? EVERYONE says that Global Cooling is a fact. This is SCIENCE, this is not some crackpot theory! Don’t you understand that!?!?” [/color]
Who knows. Maybe when you get to be as old as Fred Smith is (when you can remember the first horseless carriages appearing in your little European town when you were a teenager) … maybe at that point you do become more reluctant to believe each new scare. Especially when you can remember people calling you crazy for your refusal to believe the scientific community’s Global Cooling theory not that long ago…