Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

Ah, yes, the domino theory:

If we quit Vietnam tomorrow we’ll be fighting in Hawaii and next week we’ll have to be fighting in San Francisco.
– LBJ, 1964

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Nothin’ like kickin’ the can down the road until it becomes a much much bigger problem to deal with :joy:

Either that or try to work with China instead of seeing them as a military threat…

Tried that, didn’t work. See last 30 years

It worked with Sudetenland and Crimea, right?

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No doubt it’ll be a great success this time too!

/sarcasm off

Guy

Nothing much surprising there.

Haven’t seen that many in one day for a while, i wonder what motivated this?

I wonder if it was Ko’s off-the-cuff remarks in Japan about the Senkaku Islands, you know, actually belonging to Japan? :thinking:

Guy

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Blinken is visiting China next week at the earliest!

Probably more for WestExec than for the West Wing. “Please, can we have some money back!”

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I predict Taiwan will surrender to China soon after China invade Taiwan. There is a general lack of will to fight any wars among Taiwanese.
Taiwan Semiconductor factories will continue to operate because communist China will guard and protect them, their workers will continue to work there and the world will continue to buy chips fron Taiwan because they need the chips. Everybody is happy and just move on. At the end of the day, who cares aout the political agendas, authoritarian or democracy, as long as there is money coming their way.

Taiwan will not surrender.

Most will leave the same way arrived. Commercial airline.

It won’t be a surprise, and if it is a surprise then whole world’s already gone to hell, and there won’t be any place of which to go anyway.

If you are posting in good faith—and I presume you are, as it is against the site rules to presume otherwise—I don’t think you’ve studied very carefully what has happened to the peoples and places at the edge of the Chinese empire as the PRC has taken over.

At minimum, I would expect mass arrests of people deemed to be not “patriotic” enough (where “patriotic” means “loyal to the CCP”); mass population transfer, much like the Soviets liked to do, and a subsequent flooding of Taiwan with folks from the PRC; the transformation of the education and legal systems into propaganda outlets for the ruling party; and so so.

I’ll leave aside for now the notorious “re-education camps” set up in Xinjiang. Of course Beijing would never try that here, right?

Based on this pattern of behavior, I am sorry I don’t see any way that this sort of annexation / take over will result in “everyone” being “happy” and “mov[ing] on”—unless “moving on” means being detained or forcibly relocated to some remote parts of the PRC, or simply fleeing if possible.

Guy

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You’re using that sneaky reverse psychology stuff, aint-cha?

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I suspect it will be more like joining the EU. A gradual assertion of power by Beijing over domestic Taiwanese law. Open borders with the mainland. Beijing offering economic carrots in exchange for acquiescence by the Taiwanese people to losing control over their own affairs. Lots more regulation and red tape . . . .

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This is already done. Taiwanese have EU citizen like rights in China, basically you can go to China for business, pleasure, or work for however long your taibaozheng is valid for (I think they are good for 5 years), and you can renew it in China.

Or a canoe, with a dove feather in your hair.

Very nice comparing the EU with China to conquer Taiwan. Exactly the dame thing.

Well done, time to close the internet for the the day.

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