Any other words of wisdom to share? 
Guy
He has Google? Maybe using an AI to search? 
Tell me more (as I work on a 2050 ioc project with military developed scenarios).
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What happens if congress tells them to scrap it? They would have to.
Yep, plans change and you adapt. But that has nothing to do with the claim that forecasts and long term plans happen on 4 year or even quarterly cycles.
Naw man years of reading National Review horseshit must have rubbed off
I guess the answer is more than 5
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And look at the gains Xi and China have made since then! Thereâs a thread I found before entitled Why is there a steady wash of pro-Trump, anti-Democrats propaganda circulating on Taiwanese social media? with a couple of prescient posters that anticipated Chinaâs growing threat in the past half decade with alarming accuracy. Impressive stuff!
Plenty of people kept insisting Trump is way tougher on China, and Biden is going to throw Taiwan under the bus in that thread back in 2020.
Anyway, I am guessing despite Biden repeatedly saying the US has made a commitment to defend Taiwan, and Trump saying he wonât make a commitment and Taiwan took 'er jerbs, very few people would actually change their mind on the matter.
I created that thread because I was seeing that information war campaign on social media. Not that long ago I saw a similar information war waged against the DPP all over social media, starting back when the Pfizer vaccine purchase initially fell through. That new round of information war is still on going.
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Or itâs just best to be prepared?
What will the KMT do to protect Taiwan? Why not just end it now and capitulate? Look ma! No war! No country either!
Because youâll get hauled away for speaking the wrong opinion?
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Iâve met a couple of Chinese people (literally - it was two or three, I think) who said they didnât consider Taiwan part of China. Itâs obviously a biased sample (people with decent English and being friends with foreigners), but still.
I doubt the ones supporting it are announcing it on the street.
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This is true.
I also know a lot of Chinese people based in the US that realize Taiwan is not part of China, theyâre free to express it abroad.
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Except that Chinese semiconductor fabs are at least ten years behind. This would not happen because theyâd literally be unusable.
The thing about the semi-conductor industry is that only the most advanced technology node is big money level of profitable, like more than Taiwanâs entire tax revenue level of profitable. Products for technology nodes one or two generations ago are more like selling cabbages. The price is either really good due to a sudden shortage, or it is so bad youâd lose less money by trashing them than by selling them.
The issue is you would always need to be researching for the next two technology node simultaneously, and those research require A LOT of money, so much money that only the company currently leading can afford. Either that or your country has to pitch in and fund the research, and even then there is no guarantee youâd come out on top for the next generation.
Which is why nobody has ever caught up to Intel. 
Every country interested in playing funds this, directly or indirectly. Iâm also pretty sure that billionaires that can fund space programs could be in this space if they wanted.
Intelâs issue was that while they were the clear front runner, they only fabricated their own chips. That allowed TSMC to run in parallel because other IC designers would still need to find an advanced fab.
Then Intel made a couple of wrong bets in a row. I think I mentioned in another thread that it doesnât mean Intel canât get back to the leading position. If the next node requires the lithology methodology that Intel bet on a decade ago, then maybe theyâd come back on top after all.
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Another informative piece from todayâs Taipei Times discussing simulations conducted in Japan, this time with Taiwan participation. The conclusion: the PRC would again fail to land its troops and stick on Taiwanâs main island. No mention of how Penghu would fare, which is too bad as this would be a crucial issue moving forward after an attempted invasion.
Guy
Not even the us with their experience in amphibious warfare could land troops in Taiwan, china canât either. Also remember most Chinese military gears are knockoffs of knockoffs. Sounds great on paper but are probably shit.
When the us wargames anything they give the enemy every advantage they can while hobbling their own forces. So if American wargame says china canât invade, then they have a snowball chance in hell.
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