Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

Lol, missiles with water instead of fuel

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-military

There’s 4,261 replies at the time of this reply, so I’m not sure if this has been posted.

My buddy sent me this last week… Since the guy in the video talks even slower than I do, you can speed it up to 1.5x like I did if needed.

TL;DW: There’s been some conflict within the military itself with generals being “suicided” Killary Clinton style, antiquated navy fleet with very little capacity, ground invasion is tricky because of our terrain, we can easily strangle their oil supply, and for all the “Made in China” stuff their economy depends on: Their economy is on the verge of collapsing, and Taiwan makes 2/3 of the world’s microchip supplies, so their economy would collapse pretty damn soon.

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The VA system is not perfect, but it’s very, very good and most people I know that use it are very happy with it. The most common complaint I hear from people in the system is people that live in the middle of nowhere that say it’s hard to get services. :man_facepalming:

SpaceX is getting away with all sorts of violations. What are you talking about here, specifically?

And here we thought, from your posts, it’s because you broke federal federal arms laws. And you’ve explicitly stated that you didn’t know how the fedl govt got involved, but now you’re asserting it’s because you were being critical of the govt? What new information did you receive that led you to this change in interpretation of what happened? :wink:

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Innnnnnteresting indeed!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-military?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy

US intelligence indicates that President Xi Jinping’s sweeping military purge came after it emerged that widespread corruption undermined his efforts to modernize the armed forces and raised questions about China’s ability to fight a war, according to people familiar with the assessments.

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Better example is tibet. But people havent given a fuck for a while. Just like they don’t give a fuck about Hong Kong and likely won’t give a fuck about Taiwan if we keep up the enabling atmosphere towards China.

Nevermond their treatment to other groups including their own Beijing ccp brethren.

It’s like we want to forget Mau is right there with Hitler and Stalin, and yet the Hitler nation is the one that has shown massive ethical growth. It’s so strange.

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No one just gets up and gets it. It took me about 15 years before I could even stop worrying about being deported in Taiwan. We should try to improve the system, no question. We don’t do that by being giant babies though. Those people need to buckle up and fight. It’s not an easy task, and as such shouldn’t be expected to get on a whim. People that don’t have any fight I them inevitably end up with shit jobs and often depression. Takes a lot to turn things around. For anyone.

It is far easier to immigrate to Canada than Taiwan. But perspective is everything. Some people find dropping their birth citizenship unacceptable or getting married for rights. That is Taiwan mostly. Others find it unacceptable to have to need a sponsor and pay higher fees. That is Canada mostly. One is clearly better than the other in my eye

Either way, it is not debatable most countries Trump the shit out of China. And it is counterproductive to promote Chinese shit in regards to taiwanese shit. It’s just a completely different thing. And we should be lucky to even have the right to shit on Taiwan, unlike in China. Most deep blue/pro Chinese taiwanese seem to fill to realize this. Either out of ignorance or just pure arrogance, as with the rich side of the spectrum.

10 posts were split to a new topic: Not about China Invasion

What are people’s thoughts on this:

Is he making a bigger deal out of the report than it is? Or is it actually as significant as he says in reducing the likelihood of a Chinese invasion?

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:point_up:

Even Xi has stated China is not going to invade Taiwan. How he expects Taiwan to give itself up to China remains to be seen. Not like China does not have issues for younger people with employment and housing

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In the end he talks about 20-30% possibility of China attempting an invasion. Too much for me to be comfortable. On the other hand if the leaders over there are rational human beings they probably won’t try it after playing those war games.

I wonder how that actually looks, playing war games, how much computer input for example, how much human evaluation.

The host says the report is in the comments, did you look at it?

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Will read this later. Fascinating stuff. Leaves less room for baseless speculations.

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So the takeaway for me from that is live in Taipei and not Kaohsiung.

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And preferably nowhere near an airfield / airport, and have 2 months of supplies.

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Rockets will surely target Taipei as well, and the infrastructure will be in shambles almost immediately. Don’t think any place in Taiwan will be comfortable to be, no matter the outcome, maybe rural Nantou (Puli) for a while, cause not of strategic importance, as far as I can tell.

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But the weather tho! I have to admit I was working, so not much take away, except the importance of strengthening preparation and deterrance but not to the point of precipitating an attack.

I’ve got the supplies! These days I’ve also been inspired by @jdsmith to cruise the outskirts of town for a little corner of land tucked away somewhere. Previously my position on an invasion was that I wasn’t looking to leave but I wasn’t buying a place either. Now, if I get the APRC in a few more years I would be open to something quasi sustainable. If a small hobby farm is good enough to buy agricultural land, that also helps stay fed if shit hits the fan. Since foreigners can’t buy land near military bases, no worries about missiles!

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