Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

When was the Japanese invasion of Taiwan?

Think he means the manga invasion of Taiwan, as the books came in thru port of Keelung and were delivered down the west coast.

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1895

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Yes they seemed to have made pretty quick work of the Taiwan Republic (臺灣民主國) folks who resisted. These guys surrendered later in 1895.

Indigenous folks however kept up the fight for a while, with the last major resistance smashed down in this famous incident in the 1930s:

Guy

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Now that is a fast track to pacification! No guns needed.

Guy

I would classify that as an occupation more than an invasion, but YMMV.

Three out of five US experts said they believed that Beijing is most likely to conduct a “large-scale military exercise encircling Taiwan to achieve temporary blockade-like effects” this year if its leaders consider Taiwan’s election results unfavorable to Chinese interests, with 43 percent of the Taiwanese experts agreeing.

A majority of the experts said that although China has the capability to launch a blockade of Taiwan, it could not mount an effective invasion, the report said.

I guess it would be interesting to see how would it develop, since a blockade-like effect is basically a blockade, which I understand is literally considered an act of war by pretty much everyone.

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It would be great for China. Taiwan stops chipset exports to China.

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Well an occupation had to start with an invasion: They weren’t going to occupy themselves right?

From what I read the Japanese landed in Keelung, and marched south. The ‘had up until recently been Qing’ / Republic of Forumosa soilders initially retreated giving up military positions to the Japanese. Then when they reached down around Hsinchu the regular posters started puting up a stand and the Japanese fought them in a series of battles one after another down as far as Changhua. One of the points noted being that the Hakka were more amenable and willing to resist with force of arms - wonder if that has any connection to the history of the recent Bendi Hakka wars - At that point the mods in Tainan figured out they weren’t winning and stopped engaging the Japanese. So the invasion continued without direct military engagement again after that. Although apparently shit did continue to happen due to rogue posters: that musha incident looks hardcore with piles of decapitated heads, chemical weapons and hundreds of suicides to avoid capture. Holy crap.

Hang on, wait a minute, you were referring to the Manga invasion… Aiyo all that typing for nothing, :laughing:

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Good news, though it doesn’t preclude a blockade which is a more likely early warning sign

Not sure where to put this, but ugh

Not sure I’d buy they’d be willing to wait until the mid 2030s even if their capabilities aren’t fully there. But if so, hopefully Xi dies in the interim and is replaced by a moderate (yeah, fat chance).

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I’m not sure about any of it

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I think it is worth noting that Taiwan is harder for China to launch and sustain an attack on than Ukraine was for Russia in 2022, and also that protecting Taiwan and containing China is more strategically important for the US.

But yes, resolve is the thing and devekopments in Ukraine have not been promising

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