Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

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The CCP said officially a few times in the last few years that the 92 consensus is one country two systems.

90% of voters in Taiwan don’t care about the 92 consensus, but it’s 90% of what the KMT talk about

Yea
 I think ç‚Žé»ƒć­ć­« is basically just a fancy way of saying culturally Chinese.

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This is the problem with applying American identity politics to other countries. They simply don’t apply and will sound wrong when you translate it into English.

I think a good translator needs to understand this and word it in such a way that it doesn’t scream “master race” to Americans.

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It’s done intentionally to get a reaction

The Chinese press on both sides seem focused with the use of æ±‚ćŒć°Šç•° from Chu, but I don’t get why. I get it sounds weak and is weird use of words. Like “we are looking for mutual respect of differences”.

Not sure if any native Chinese speaker can explain why it’s strange

I quite liked the way the Taipei Times translated it today as “seek common ground and respect differences”. It’s more or less the impression it gave me when I read it on LTN yesterday.

Great analysis @OrangeOrganics It seems that Chu is trying to appease the hard-liners that voted for Chang rather than bringing the KMT finally out of 2008.

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I thought æ±‚ćŒ means “seek unification”


in disguise of course

But does it sound really feeble?

It reminded me of an interview to former Australian PM Kevin Rudd, who said that in order to establish healthy relations with China the two parties needed to concentrate on the 80% that they agree with and keep the remaining 20% out of the picture by agreeing to disagree. Although it was still Hu Jintao’s China and of course Australia is not Taiwan.

It seems to me more like a wish to return to Ma’s era of “let’s talk business and leave reunification to a faraway future”. But again, it’s 2021
 If ten years ago the CCP was at least pretending to respect the KMT, now it’s already dictating the agenda like Chu is the new Carrie Lam.

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The CCP aren’t fucking around anymore. æ”č革開攟 Is well over.

The KMT have nothing to offer Beijing apart from handing over Taiwan sooner rather than later. They arent looking for friends.

The point of ECFA was to lead to bringing the economies closer together and make Taiwan dependant on China. That’s not the direction the two sides of the straits are going. Beijing has no interest being the KMT’s piggybank

The KMT are the stupidest guys in the room. At least the corrupt ones are just taking advantage of the situation for their financial benefit. I despise then, but don’t think they are stupid.

The real idiots are the true believers. The CCP doesn’t want peaceful trade between the straits, they want your land. Specifically to stick military bases on and kick the US out of the Asia Pacific

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And democratic country with ‘Chinese’ people next door is bad for CCP’s narrative.
People in China might get the wrong idea. Hong Kong and Taiwan are big thorns in CCP’s butt. HK was the easy one.

They mostly just want the land and then break up the first island chain. Everything else is secondary

Let me add, the “respect differences” means nothing. Respect sounds nice, but that’s about it. The CCP probably has expressed in the past that they “respect” the people of Tibet and the people of Hong Kong, etc. Do the people there feel respected, that is the question.

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China is extremely happy with the North Korea situation despite pretending to agree with the western diplomatic establishment.

The hole point of existence for North Korea, is that China can use North Korea to extort South Korea, and in that process South Korea (SK also knowingly cooperating with China) can divert limited US resources and attention toward the peninsula, thus making the resource-scarce and geographically inconsequential peninsula seem more important than it really ought to be.

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It wasn’t that long ago that China rather waged existential war and sent hundreds of thousands of infantrymen to Korea . In 1950, in 1895, in 1636. In fact, you can trace it all the way back to 598AD. That was then.

Now, ask the Chinese again if Korea is any part of their 100 year humiliation. Of course they’d say no. Why? Because EVEN THE CHINESE themselves discovered the geographical inconsequentiality of Korea after the last Korean War the Chinese would ever fight.

U.S. Troops Have Been Deployed in Taiwan for at Least a Year

The Wall Street Journal - 10/7/2021

Summary

I thought this was discussed here just about a year ago?

I guess we never knew they stuck around.

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This sounds interesting

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Good report. Thank you for posting this.

Guy

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