Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

Hahaha my goodness you couldn’t be more wrong.

Remind us again about how WWI and WWII started. In WWII you can even claim Japan kicked it off with the invasion of Manchuria — in all cases, Europe or Pacific theater, U.S. involvement did not “trigger World War”.

It hasn’t happened so far, despite all the efforts. Taiwan stays ahead for the unforeseeable future, of course not forever.

10 years ahead… No idea what that means and how long it would take for China to catch up.

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Wisdom is knowing that the dump administration wouldn’t do anything anyways, and there was never a reason to read it

Funny, compared to your posting I couldn’t be more right!

If Japan had stopped at Manchuria, or Hitler had stopped with the Sudetenland, WW2 wouldn’t have happened. So, using your analogy, China just has to stop at Taiwan.

WW1 started with an assassination and involved a web of alliances. Taiwan has no such agreements.

You think if the US sits it out, enough other countries are willing to fight a hot war with China to preserve Taiwanese independence?

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That’s an estimate from a Taiwanese organization, it is s an approximation but based on what and with what bias? The NSTC probably doesn’t have spies at Huawei, Huawei probably has spies at TAMC. Could be 10 years behind but they never catch up, could be 5 years behind today but they catch up in 5 years with the right IP theft :man_shrugging:

The security at TSMC must be insane. The potential bribes ginormous. Can’t imagine those secrets are stealable.

Hmmm. I think there is a lot of misunderstanding of what makes Taiwan dominant. The secret is not access to resources, but accumulated know-how, trust, talent density, and decades of experience. Those can’t be imported, headhunted, or replicated cheaply. And not in China, in my opinion, not under current geopolitical constraints, by which I mean export controls on the most advanced machines; restrictions on materials and chemicals; brain drain goes from China and not to China (Taiwanese engineers don’t want to relocate to China now, and China can’t buy top-tier engineers the way it could 10–15 years ago); and foreign companies are reluctant to invest in China because of the U.S.–China tech rivalry.

Your initial/original premise I agree with, that no technological leadership is permanent. But man, do other countries have a long, long way to go to catch up to Taiwan.

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Everything is stealable, but if it were easy to steal it would have been stolen already!

Maybe not cheaply, but it can be done. The point is, the argument that it is impossible is simply not true.

Ah, ok, we’re on the same page. High five :raised_hand:

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There’s two separate stories about stolen TSMC IP in the news currently!

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I think you’re forgetting that North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran will take the opportunity to attack their own enemies (South Korea, India, and Israel), likely teaming up together with China in the process. These four countries are connected by land.

This is with, or without, the US involvement.

Then the US will have no choice but to assemble the avengers.

the memes and gifs will be strong

If the US doesn’t, WW3 is merely postponed with many would be allies disillusioned. Judging by Russia’s invasions of Ukraine, I’m guessing it would only be postponed by 10 years.

It is insane, but nowhere near levels of security I see at similar, less-threatened corps/organizations. Their security is one of the primary reasons many Taiwanese in the construction industry can’t benefit from this boom; a large percentage of local workers can’t pass security screening.

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Uh, they might. But we’ve already seen what Iran can do, and the US military isn’t stopping Pakistan from attacking India currently. Korea is the only one of three where you have a shadow of an argument. But the US has a commitment to defend South Korea, so your argument falls apart as soon as the US chooses not to take part.

F

China is targeting the whole world. Personally I see WWIII already kicked off by China when China deliberately allowed Covid to spread around the world while hoarding PPE and spreading propaganda. It set the stage for the Myanmar coup by CCP aligned forces, and the invasion of Ukraine which China heavily backs. Preface this with Chinese newly built illegal bases peppered throughout the SCS, huge Concentration camps in Xinjiang, illegal crackdown in Hong Kong violating the handover agreement, and the orbiting hypersonic missile tests, Chinese spy balloons, etc. You have to be living in a cave to think China will stop at Taiwan, while the Chinese Navy is crashing into itself chasing Philippines vessels and doing circumnavigations around Australia, threatening Japan with nuclear first strikes, etc.

In the beginning of ww2 the US wasn’t a superpower. It was ww2 that solidified US global power.

Also, be more objective. Based on reality, facts, etc. The Biden administration literally walked back their own President [Biden] when he said they [the USA] made a promise, a commitment. I have simply pointed this put on tuis forum and people got butt hurt about me saying it. Which isn’t a good sign in terms of the education industry.

This isnt really even about Trump, as trashy as he may be. The entire country of the USA is also as guilty as Trump. so are we. Be us canadian, taowa eee, cunese, Japanese or otherwise affiliated. The [US] constitution, civil war and so on are all great and fine. Quite fantastic actually. Both sides of their political realms are equally as hypocritical and selfish as each other. This is proven time and time again. Not based on our opinions of Trump, Biden, Obama, Bush or the Clinton’s. But based on their actual actions. Even WW2, the US only got involved once rhey thought “of fuck”. Then nuked people and took credit for the entire fight. This level of arrogance isn’t amazing, even if their initial constitution and human rights fight was very much praise worthy.

The fucked up part. And I mean, REALLY fucked up!!!, is: who is better?

This “bill” is literally as important as a 711 washrooms tissue some kind auntie left on the shelf because 711 won’t foot the bill for a toilet service, so the individual might be nice enough to donate said tissue. This should be actually embarrassing to anyone that can read. That bill would be best not published, makes them look worse.

Truly, fucking retards.

Greek-Canadian by chance?

The person that wrote that “bill”? No idea if they have ties to Canada or Greece, but this does exactly bleed true and blue American retardation. I mean, actually read it…

I mean, actually read how beyond fucking stupid this waste of paper is (much like most of the Taiwan acts the USA did to try and justify switching ties to China) :wall:

I’m going to post it, just so it’s read. Like, literally, fuck right off USA…. You are being pretentious as shit and also worsening the situation. Help or get the fuck out of the room and let us have our nukes back you donkey cunts. This aint brain surgery. Even politics shouldn’t be this g’ damn stupid!

From the above posters’ link (not my link)