Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

Taiwan’s drone exports exploded last year, positioning it as a key supplier of China-free or “non-red” drones, according to The Economist.

It reported Thursday that Taiwan launched its drone program in 2022, inspired by Ukraine. Since then, it has ramped up production from 10,000 units in 2024 to over 120,000 last year, with 85,500 exported so far in 2026.

Taiwan targets full non-Chinese components by the end of this year and production of 180,000 annual units by 2028. Domestic demand plays a significant role as the military intends to purchase over 200,000 drones by 2033.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6320710

The bureaucracy joke is accurate, but even the Taiwanese military should be ready to follow the advice from the americans to disperse those at the early signs of trouble…

So how many drones does the military currently have? And I’ll assume that the Chinese components aren’t electronic, which might compromise them…

They’ve been working on Vision 2030 longer than that. There is no shortage of things they have announced but not really followed through on very well. I’m sure they have a team they can prop up for the camera, but as of now they don’t have drone swarms. Baby steps, ok.

The article doesn’t say, only says what it plans to have by 2033 (200,000 by then). I’m no expert, but the whole non-red drones idea is what piqued my interest when I saw these articles a short while back.

Hardware is one thing, another key is the ability to use them in most efficient way. Ukrainian drone experts are now joining NATO exercises actively to teach their expertise. Hopefully Taiwan can take this opportunity too

Let us bear in mind that they can’t coordinate traffic lights with computers. This is like 1950s technology.

It’s not like Taiwan have to start from scratch. There were already military drone manufacturers here in Taiwan prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and at least a thousand or some Taiwanese made drones were delivered to Ukraine in 2022 as @slawa and I posted back then.

Indigenous diesel-electric submarine Haikun just conducted torpedo launch test yesterday.

So the KMT took an axe to the drone budget.

Key Budget Cuts

NT$470 Billion Reduction The KMT, in collaboration with the People First Party (PFP), pushed for a massive reduction of roughly NT$470 billion in military procurement.

Drone Development The cuts specifically impacted a NT$28 billion allocation for undersea suicide drones and other uncrewed air vehicles (UAVs).

Asymmetric Firepower These reductions have been described by analysts as gutting the “Hellscape” concept—a strategy designed to defend Taiwan using a robust inventory of low-cost, high-tech autonomous systems.

It would appear China’s biggest asset is the KMT.

Let’s see if Trump decides to 1 up the KMT at his scheduled meeting with Xi, to become China’s biggest asset.

Somebody needs to start a guerilla propaganda campaign promoting that the KMT has taken over the PRC with sleeper agents and is getting ready to assassinate Xi Jin Ping so they can finally return to their pre-exile glory and rule West Taiwan again! :smirking_face: :popcorn:

https://brawlstreetjournal.substack.com/p/played?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3246640&post_id=197828184&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=ikh6g&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

China is already making sure that Europe will not be able to put sanctions on them buy owning parts of Euroclear and now likely having Chinese bonds being sold through Euroclear.

If this happens good enough imposing sanctions on China by Europe like Ukraine would be economic suicide for Europe. It’s pretty clear China is planning much better than Russia ever did plus analyzing and preventing any mistakes that made Russia vulnerable.

Because it’s through Euroclear mainly that economic sanctions against Russia are imposed.

They do pay for it, but plenty of Taiwanese vote KMT. Another reason I don’t think my country should do anything to take a side in the unfinished Chinese civil war