I like how they put it so that we ignored the ally situation. Clearly, with land mass being a huge factor there is disadvantage, but I’d say they’d fare better than I had originally thought.
Islands are hard to invade. They could just destroy Taiwan.
I guess from my point of view knowing nothing about war, there’s this looming “I guess they can just bomb the place” in my head…
What I’m afraid of most is the potential jianti-fying of the island. Ha no thanks.
Well their ultimate goal is reunification,.,killing everyone and destroying the entire economic infrastructure is not what they will do.
Why invade it when you can just buy it? Not sure which is worse…
yeah, cheaper probably. I feel less and less sure about how much Taiwanese actually value democracy and the preservation or even a establishment of a new republic. There seems to be a nature of a want of another emperor like the chinese…
Your average Taiwanese just isn’t made out of the hard stuff that revolutions require. If it didn’t happen a few generations back, when people actually were tougher, it sure as hell isn’t gonna happen now.
Maybe hard times will shape some hard men and women again. But i’ve yet to see a leader step up i’m willing to lay down my life for head first into battle. A bunch of false prophets from both parties.
Looking at the picture of Tsai in the military base didn’t really make me feel like she was anyone to lead me.
She’s very gifted (imo) in enforcing the democracy rhetoric. When it comes to war, though, it seems there are clear avenues Taiwan has to take to avoid the Chinese actualizing their goal…
No charisma, no leadership, not decisive like her politics. Although I know she was limited in what she could do, but just doens’t inspire. A leader inspires.
Taiwan can defend itself from invasion using asymmetric warfare. Think drone fleets of subs and aircraft and mines, backed by multiple layers of heavy weaponry from the Navy and airforce, patriot missiles, first class radar systems, satellite surveillance …
They just aren’t going to get through that kind of defense in one piece . Any remnants that landed would be picked off.
The problem comes then to embargoes and destruction of Taiwan by missiles and bombing to effect surrender.
It’s still the question of will uncle Sam back up their commitment. I think that still stands. One other big one we have to face is KMT selling out Taiwan in the middle of a conflict , quite a strong possibility.
Conflict is definitely the worst option but we have to be ready for the possibility.
I see where you are coming from.
I think the US would virtually lose their influence in the asian pacific if they don’t. The only reason Japan and S Korea hasn’t nuclearized is because of US promise of protection. No way they would trust the US for any military protection if they sit and do nothing with Taiwan. Also China must know that will be a problem for them…S Korea and Japan will react very aggressively towards their policy and probably become strong allies with a upgrade on military power…there’s a lot of things in play.
How hard would it be for China to destroy every military base and position using air and sea power, then send in troops to finish the job if Taiwan doesn’t surrender?
Sure the economic infrastructure might be damaged but they could just send over 100 million Chinese to rebuild quicky.
Thats an invasion for reunification. I’m saying they can just level Taiwan’s infrastructure in maybe hours? maybe days? And just come over with no resistance
I happen to think an unleashed Japan would keep China in check if the US didn’t hold up its end of the bargain.
I don’t doubt them in battle as a people as we witness in not just WW2, but throughout history. Those Japanese submarines in the south china sea would be a game changer for China. China would witness heavy heavy causalities and Japan probably doesn’t even need to officially go into war if the unleash those subs on hit on run missions and not tell anyone. China would not really know in the chaos of war.
And if they were smart, they go after every Chinese oil tanker coming in the from Middle East. What I’ve read suggests they would have help from the long line of China haters, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, et al. China would then be faced with keeping its internal problems under control or trying to stretch out and grab Taiwan, and the oil in the South China Sea.
My take is that China will become like Iran, using most of spy network and military to keep its sheep well tended and trying to keep up a “presence” internationally by being well, pricks to its regional neighbors.
However I’m not sure of what Russia will do? Will they back China? They seem to be building more close ties recently.
China should really look more inwards right now, I think we are seeing some cracks in their vision of unlimited exponential economic growth. They aren’t as stable as they will have people believe, especially with that population.