Can China invade Taiwan within a year?

Surprised that this thread is still open. It’s been 4 plus years now. So obviously the answer is no.

The topic hasn’t really expired

I still think we’re good to after the election next year, then we’ll see


Yeah, wouldn’t make sense for there to be any big, overt moves made before the 2024 election.

Victory through successfully securing your candidate as the next president is currently a much less risky win condition. I don’t think China wants to expose its branding to risk any more than it has to, what with recent and enduring blowback from HK/Xinjiang/covid issues, observation of the blowback Russia is currently facing by their invasion of Ukraine, and also China being sensitive to any bad PR that could jeopardize current and future BRI deals.

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Especially with CSG hanging around :sunglasses:

84 posts were split to a new topic: Tucker Carlson Thread

That’s right…China’s strategy is entirely political-military with an empahsis on the political. Their military buildup is meant for show and intimidation. What they want to do is walk into Taiwan with a shot being fired, and who knows they may be able to do that in the long run. In the short-term any full-scale attack would be incredibly risky from their point of view. The CCP wants predictable results. By far their biggest concern is keeping control of their own population. A quick victory would make them look good, a drawn out see-saw conflict could create the conditions for internal disorder. Actually, this is all very complex at the end of the day, and has many more facets than purely military. My concern is that PR China is spending big and smart on its military and that Xi Jinping is dangerously ambitious. He could press ‘go’. If he did it wouldn’t be this year, but if a window of opportunity opens he might just make a move. There’s not much you can do about it. Should you stay or should you go now?

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I don’t necessarily disagree with the rest of your post, but this. I’m interested to see what happens, especially with the election next year, but vaguely am starting to plan around a 2026/27 change of scenery

I like the way this guy thinks.

“said Taiwan needs to be prepared for a Chinese invasion, but the communist regime risks collapse before taking the democratically-governed nation”

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“I think we can get to the end of this decade without them committing major aggression against Taiwan.”

US assistant defense secretary

War must be avoided if at all possible.
Sad story shows there are no winners.

They Were Married. They Shared a Trench. They Died in It Together.

However Taiwan needs to be able to defend itself if attacked.


For those who don’t subscribe to ny times


Assuming China fails, question is what happens then? :thinking:

I guess

  • diplomatic recognition of Taiwan
  • US forces stationed in Taiwan permanently
  • CCP collapses (leadership change more likely, but still same party)
  • China economy goes kaput as they’re cut off from the west
  • probably some other crazy, unpredictable dominos (North Korea, etc)

Funny, there was another article a few days ago, about an Australian think tank saying no way US could repel China


In a country where many 21 y/o are not autark…

Taiwan’s military has proposed legal changes to allow minors aged 16 and above to be mobilized in a national emergency.

I can teach my son to throw rocks at drones myself.

Just tell everyone what I feel in China. I am a special veteran(in electronic /semiconductor industrial field) of Taiwan, and have been building factories in Changzhou . It’s quite easy to get money in CCP side(China side). I got almost 1.9 billion yuan in two rounds from Changzhou in the name of high technology. In Taiwan, it would be hard to get that kind of money. I gave away a lot of dark stock to make as many key people as possible stakeholders! I have a very good command of suppliers, especially factory equipment suppliers. It is impossible to include them in my list without giving me a “personal-commissions”. This is a large source of income that cannot be ignored.
There are so many people in China begging for sending me money. Why don’t I take them?
Having lived in China for many years, I have a deep understanding of the management of the Communist Party of China. It really can’t compare with Taiwan, especially Taipei. When I was in Taiwan, I thought the Democratic Progressive Party was too manipulative to truly responsible. However, I have been working hard in Beijing, Xiamen and Changzhou for more than 10 years, and I miss Taiwan deeply.
I also feel deeply that Tsai Ing-wen’s leadership and the DPP are not easy to protect everything in Taiwan… China will invade Taiwan sooner or later! So, I support Tsai Ing-wen to stay in power and support the DPP continuously to control Taiwan! I also make no secret that I will find ways to support the DPP in all aspects, Including financial support!
On Changzhou side, I Michael is sparing no effort to pull out the pile! I will try my best to get as much money from China as possible! Michael

1 Like Taiwanese gov’t introduces law to criminalize “spreading rumors or disinformation during wartime” after KMT opposition lawmakers misinterpreted tweets by US radiohosts.


tweet about Biden’s plan for the "destruction of Taiwan"10506313555973

Taiwan will be putting the clamps on rumors and disinformation.

They want to reduce the conscription age. Now this. Is shit about to go down?

To be fair, wasn’t the law about spreading COVID/pandemic misinformation also already in place long before COVID (like, from SARS)? I think it makes sense. The US has a certain party that keeps screaming about how a civil war is about to start. Unfortunately, due to a certain constitutional right known as “freedom of the press”, that certain party can scream about how a civil war is coming in order to cause it to happen, and they are constitutionally protected, even if those words are said in order to cause literal chaos. For Taiwan to preemptively block rumors about a war with China means it’ll be much, much, much easier to go after China shills that just want to cause the same kind of chaos that the GOP is already causing in the US. I wouldn’t see this so much as “shit’s about to go down” as “we’ve watched the mistakes of our enemies and our allies and we’re going to make sure we don’t make them, should that time come to pass”