Can China invade Taiwan within a year?

Most Taiwanese people love Trump because they think he’s the first US president in modern times who’s stood up for Taiwan.

Following media reports pointing out the risks of angering China, Mr Trump tweeted: “Interesting how the US sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call.”

In a weapons show in China, Chinese companies are show casing Boston dynamics’ spot like quadrupedal robots with automatic rifle mounted on it capable of doing door to door search and clear tasks.

Scary to think we are getting so close to actual terminators.


‘Most Taiwanese Love Trump’

Do you care to back up that statement

On the PTT that seems the case. It’s the same group of people that support Ko Wenje. Especially those young late 20, early 30 people living in Northern Taiwan.

Like still now?


So Xi Jinping had his meetings at APEC and as soon as it’s over the flight and naval incursions have increased.

There’s more than enough information on military sites to deduce they aren’t going to do shit. At best, they’re take my ball and go home kind of warriers.

1 Like

They’re working on it, still not there yet. I’m not packing my bags, but not buying property either


Par for the course. Not like they have been hiding it at all. It is on the horizon. Deniers can bury their heads all they want. reality is reality.

Ideally we should not be fearful, just aware and diligent in preparation and counter measures.

Why an invasion of Taiwan would be a dismay for China even if successful. Think this is an excellent report from CSIS and Jude Blanchette

The conclusion reached is stark: China would court disaster if it launched an invasion across the Taiwan Strait. Even under optimistic assumptions about the combat performance of the PLA and the relatively muted or constrained military responses by Taiwan and the United States, there is a precariously narrow path Xi Jinping would need to follow to emerge from the gambit unscathed. Once more realistic assumptions begin to be layered in, the picture becomes dire for the CCP and China as a whole. Equally as significant, any Chinese attack on Taiwan would also have an extraordinary impact on the global economy, especially for U.S. partners and allies in the region.
The key strategic challenge for the United States remains to ensure Beijing never actively contemplates an attack on Taiwan. While it is likely Beijing broadly understands the costs associated with such an action, the increasing isolation of Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the concomitant rise in groupthink in Beijing’s policymaking circles means that one cannot assume Chinese leaders will continue to conduct a sound cost-benefit analysis. It thus remains critical to find direct and clear ways to communicate to Xi Jinping the costs he would face for undertaking any attack on Taiwan.

1 Like

Yeah there is a lot of this in Taiwan

Whenever that thread about US engineers at TSMC being babies pops up, I wonder what the US military would candidly say about their counterparts here. They aren’t free to say what they really think, of course, but I wonder…

Most of what I know about the Taiwanese military comes from Forumosa, so probably fair to say I know very little :slightly_smiling_face:


This incidentally is one of the minor arguments from the U.S. side against Strategic Clarity. General feeling that Taiwan hasn’t done enough to prepare militarily and expects US to do all the heavy lifting. A lot of people have expressed disappointment at lack of reforms by dpp in military service or to clean out prc infiltration

If US commit to defending Taiwan, Taipei will be under no pressure to make any reforms

1 Like

Tanner Greer is US scholar who spent months in Taiwan researching Taiwan military and interviewing personnel


Great article, by which I mean it fits very closely what i already think and have read

Interesting how some of the cultural issues are the same as I encounter in the work place

1 Like

This is shameless. Dude would be tried for treason in the states.

Had to do a double take. Article suggests china is converting old migs into UAVs.

Pretty sure i read that somewhere else some time ago, yeah. Makes sense, doesnt it?

Some bollocks from that article, i didn’t keep reading: