Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

They probably won’t use bio-warfare - it would kill off the possible cheap labor force gained from the victory…

Buzzkill

Best advice I can give for the ‘future’ attack: try and live on 1~6 floors - having to walk up any higher will be a real pain! Although, roof-top space will be at a premium - ability to capture rain water & grow food, etc.

For cheap labor just import Chinese over. Surely the PRC can spare 30 million Chinese to move over.

They could, if they want to start world war 3. The US and Taiwan are currently allies, subject to change of course. But Trump has already stated as such and if ww3 eventually does happen, he would like TW to be neutral. Because where else is the world going to get it’s microchips and boards made!

The chinese would probably make laws requiring tracking hardware into all the boards made from Taiwanese companies.

Didn’t you see, the western countries believe a phone company is already doing this haha, America even banned the entire brand

Nothing new in the address which was both good and bad.
Good because no dates set to ratchet up tensions.
Bad because still adhering to the stupid one country two systems strait jacket for Taiwan.

I believe Taiwan and China can and should work something out such as a Chinese Union similar to the EU.

But one country two systems makes NO sense from Taiwan’s current standpoint and also the shitty example from Hong Kong.

Tsai was right to get ahead of his speech and state Taiwan’s position clearly .

One country two systems shows the lack of imagination of current Chinese leadership. They should realise that if they changed the formula there is a very good chance of a political breakthrough. Perhaps the CCP is scared of an alternative version of China in a Chinese Union.

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Why should they work for something like a Chinese union ? What’s in it for taiwan ?

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I agree that a Chinese Union is the logical choice for all parties but I doubt current China leadership will accept that. That kind of union means independence and recognization by the UN.
I think the Union has to be accompanied by creating a new entity in the UN, call it permanent autonomous region or semi-independent or whatever, basically Taiwan’s independence will be recognized except it will lack some sovereign rights. For example it cannot give military bases to third countries or join any international military organization.

A lot. Taiwan’s economy is losing a lot of money because of lackluster trade deals and political uncertainty. Plus it never hurts to know you won’t get in a war anytime soon. Given a international independece guarantee Taiwan could even reduce military spending and instead invest that money.

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Yeah there’s a lot to benefit . Security . Freedom to trade. Investment . Stability. There would be some sacrifices too. That’s why it depends on the nature of any deal
Right now Taiwan is in a precarious situation. The future is very uncertain.
Many of us that have been around for years and have seen a steady erosion of Taiwan’s position in the world.

China isn’t going anywhere it’s best if we have a deal of some sort that works for Taiwan and works for China.

But, couldn’t all of these things be achieved without a union of any sort with china ? Seems to me that all these benefits could be far more easily achieved if just China stopped threatening Taiwan with force and bullying it at every opportunity.

So, basically my question would be, why is this union better for taiwan than the alternative which is china to stop being a dick ?

I would say so, both sides could keep business flowing. Taiwan gaining stability and certainty while the PRC gaining a lot investments from Taiwan. Taiwanese firms still make up the bulk of Chinese foreign vestments.

You need to ask yourself, “Which is more likely to happen?”

China is not going away. Taiwan is not going away either. But China is a superpower economically, politically and eventually militarily .
We need to try and find some kind of accommodation that works. We cannot sail Taiwan out of the Taiwan strait.

Otherwise Taiwan is just stumbling along year after year and eventually hits a dead end anyway.

There’s no real drive for independence in Taiwan given the reality of the current situation. Voters have made this clear . Taiwanese like the status quo but the status quo is WEAK in terms of its stability . KMT could sell us out at anytime. Some other military or geopoktical reality could change the ballgame overnight again. China keeps trying to undercut he govt here thru the KMT. It might work.

At the moment all we have is status quo and no real independence movement it’s justa slow road to nowhere.

Assuming the debt mountain, pollution, demographics, etc. do not become unsustainable.

I think Taiwan should move further away from China, not closer. I just hope the China miracle starts imploding soon so Taiwanese realise the same, before taiwan is too close to china and there is no moving away anymore.

People have been saying that for deacdes.
Just because China has issues doesn’t mean it’s going anywhere . China is already very well developed and organiaed they aren’t going to breakup and roll back.

My point is not that we should be part of China but a part of a bigger Chinese union that preserves As MUCH of the current status quo as possible while delivering on security and the economy and freedom including local autonomy. Now Taiwan is self ruling and ‘independent’ but it’s status as a sovereign nation in the world is steadily getting weaker.

I’ve seen lots of foreigners that are independence advocates come and go from the island…They don’t need to deal with reality long term. I am also an independence advocate but not NOW. I see a better idea would be to reach an arrangement with China for the next fifty years or whatever.

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